The Guardians will try to secure a division title against a division rival eager to spoil their chances before heading to Cancun next week.
The Guardians are 83-76 with a +3 run differential, 23rd in MLB with a 95 wRC+, seventh in baserunning runs above average at 5.7, ninth in Defense at -8.6, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.90 (3.88 FIP), and sixth in bullpen ERA at 3.48 (3.63 FIP).
The Royals are 68-91 with a -112 run differential, 20th in MLB with a 97 wRC+, eighth in baserunning runs above average at 5.1, sixth in Defense at -3.4, 25th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.56 (4.44 FIP), and 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.00 (5.00 FIP).
The Guardians and Royals are very similar for the season in offense, baserunning and defense. The Royals are in last place because their pitching has been awful… and they don’t have that dog in ’em, of course. But, the Guardians will face the Royals’ best two starting pitchers this weekend, so… we will see.
Matchups:
Game One, Friday, 7:40PM ET: Cameron, LHP 3.92 ERA vs. Williams, RHP, 3.63 ERA
Game Two, Saturday, 7:10PM ET: Wacha, RHP 3.33 ERA vs. Bibee, RHP, 4.35 ERA
Game Three, Sunday, 3:10PM ET: Lynch IV, LHP 4.13 ERA vs. TBD (Messick if necessary)
The elephant in the room as we look at these matchups is Michael Wacha who has been a Guardians’ killer. Yes, the team will need the usual suspects to come through versus the two lefties (wake up, David Fry!), but it is Wacha who has tortured this team. Nathaniel Lowe DOES have a .400 wOBA against Wacha over the past four years. Bat him cleanup and let him come through, Stephen. Patrick Bailey has a .594 wOBA, David Fry .564 wOBA, and Angel Martinez .327 wOBA. That’s about all we have to offer in terms of guys who have shown some life vs. Wacha. Would like to see Fry get the DH day and have them sit Jo Adell, but we will see what happens.
For the season, the Guardians are led by Chase DeLauter 130 wRC+, Angel Martinez 112 wRC+, Steven Kwan 112 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 109 wRC+, and Nathaniel Lowe 108 wRC+.
The Royals are led by Jac Caglianone 128 wRC+, Bobby Witt Jr. 120 wRC+, Tyler Tolbert 114 wrC+, Carter Jensen 112 wRC+, John Rave 107 wRC+, and Vinnie Pasquantino 105 wRC+.
Make the Royals’ starters work and get into their bullpen as early as possible, and don’t let Witt and Caglianone beat you. Those are your keys. AND if the White Sox are tied with you on Sunday morning, do NOT start Parker Messick in that last game because the White Sox are playing the Rockies!
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