Seahawks playoff picture: Seattle’s updated chances to make 2024 NFL playoffs in Week 17 vs. Bears

The Seahawks, despite sitting at 8-7 and having lost two against the Packers and Vikings, are still alive in the playoff race. 

Seattle is coming off a brutal home loss to Minnesota last week, which would have drastically helped its playoff chances. The Seahawks had a chance to tie the game and force overtime, but kicker Jason Myers missed a 60-yard field goal attempt late in the fourth quarter. After getting the ball back, Geno Smith then threw a game-sealing interception with less than a minute left.

Seattle is also dealing with its fair share of injuries. Smith left Seattle’s Week 15 game against the Packers after taking a low hit and isn’t 100 percent. Running back Kenneth Walker has been banged up too, missing two games with a calf injury and tweaking his ankle against Minnesota.  

Despite all of this, with just two weeks left in the regular season, there’s still a shot for Seattle to make it to the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s first season on the sidelines.

Let’s run through Seattle’s updated playoff chances heading into its Week 17 game against the Bears on the road.   

Seahawks playoff picture

Here’s where things stand inside the NFC for playoff spots. Currently, four teams have clinched spots: Lions, Eagles, Vikings, and Packers. 

As you can see, the Seahawks are at the very bottom of these standings, trailing the Commanders and the Bucs. Seattle entered last Sunday tied atop the NFC West alongside Los Angeles, but thanks to its loss to the Vikings, it’s a full game behind the Rams at 8-7 and two games behind the Commanders. Washington is guaranteed to have a better conference record than Seattle, so the only way the Seahawks can make the playoffs is by winning the NFC West.

NFC West standings

If the Rams lose to the Cardinals this week and Seattle beats Chicago, the winner of next week’s Seahawks-Rams game will go to the playoffs. The same holds true if both teams lose this week. The Rams’ Week 9 victory over Seattle helps Los Angeles tremendously here with the tiebreaker. 

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Seahawks remaining schedule 

Seattle’s final two games are against the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams. The first seems the most winnable, given Chicago has lost nine straight games. However, Week 17’s game is in Chicago, so we could have some wintry, windy conditions. ESPN Analytics thinks this one will be close—it gives Seattle just a 50.1-percent chance of winning. 

Seattle then has to go on the road to play the Rams. Los Angeles beat Seattle 26-20 earlier this season, and it’s heating up late in the year, too, getting four straight wins over the Saints, Bills, 49ers, and Jets.  

Seattle updated playoff chances

According to the NFL’s updated NFC playoff picture, the Seahawks have just a 13-percent chance to make it to the postseason. ESPN’s football power index ranks Seattle’s chances slightly higher, at 18.2 percent.