It’s complicated.
That’s one of two consensus opinions I found in speaking with six scouts/executives from different teams about the Tarik Skubaltrade speculation that has become the talk of the baseball industry over the last 48 hours.
At least it was the talk before Shohei Ohtani’s sublime performance late Friday night, but in a way the stories are connected, especially for a team like the Mets, who need someone like Skubal to have a chance at competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for baseball supremacy in 2026 and beyond.
More on that to come. For now the larger point, as the scout/execs point out, is that the Detroit Tigers are in a very difficult position. They would be risking the wrath of their championship-starved fan base if they trade Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, after reaching the postseason the last two years, yet they’d almost certainly lose him to free agency a year from now if they choose not to trade him.
“That’s why it’s hard to predict which way this thing will go,” said an executive from a mid-market NL team. “In a vacuum it’s a no-brainer, unfortunately, considering Skubal is a (Scott) Boras guy and all that. You make the best trade you can and move on. But in the real world that’s a tough sell when you haven’t won in 40 years.”
It’s 41 years, actually, since the Tigers won the World Series in 1984. And there is another layer to their conundrum.
For years the late Mike Ilitch, the Tigers’ owner, operated with one of the higher payrolls in baseball while trying to win another title, spending big in free agency and once locking up Justin Verlander to a seven-year, $180 million extension that at the time was the highest in the game. But Ilitch died in 2017 and his son, Christopher, has run a more budget-conscious operation since taking over.
“It’s kind of like Hal (Steinbrenner) taking over after George died,” said one midwest-based scout. “The fans there long for the days when they felt like Mike Ilitch would spend whatever it took to try to win. The son is not very popular as it is. Trading Skubal would make him persona non grata in Detroit.”
In short, this isn’t Garrett Crochet, who was traded for prospects last winter by the rebuilding Chicago White Sox, or even Corbin Burnes, traded by the small-market Milwaukee Brewers from a team that had enough pitching depth to continue winning.
Skubal is far more essential than that to the Tigers and the city of Detroit.
Still, the same scouts and execs don’t rule out a trade. For it to happen, however, it would take a more attractive package than either Crochet or Burnes brought back.
Which leads to the second consensus opinion that emerged from my various conversations:
That is, no team is more motivated or well-positioned than the Mets to make such a trade happen.
“I’d make them the favorite to get Skubal, no question, if the Tigers decide to trade him,” said an NL scout. “They have the pieces to get it done and they obviously have the need. Steve Cohen apologized to the fans for missing the postseason — what does that tell you? He’s going to want to make big-splash moves to change the narrative.”
To that point SNY’s Andy Martino reported Friday the Mets are expected to be “involved” if Skubal is made available, and willing to “shake up their current position-player group” if it means acquiring a top pitcher.
So the question on the Mets’ end would be just how far they’re willing to go for a player they could lose to free agency after one season.
“Steve Cohen changes that equation,” said one team exec. “His money takes significant risk out of losing the player. And when you look at the Mets, as badly as they played down the stretch, they’re still talented enough that a pitcher like Skubal could be the difference-maker that gives them a chance to compete with the Dodgers and win it all next year.
“But I’d still expect them to draw a line somewhere as to how much they’d be willing to give up, knowing they could sign Skubal in a year without giving up assets.”
So what would it take? The scouts/execs all made the point that this has to be more than trading prospects, as the Tigers even without Skubal would go into next season trying to win, with the core of a team that had the best record in baseball until a September collapse.
“They would want players who could help them win next season plus prospects too,” said a team exec. “They’re going to ask for (Nolan) McLean. He’s a guy you can sell to your fans as a rising star who can be another Skubal. You get him with some other pieces and maybe your fans can live with it.
“But if I’m the Mets, McLean is the one untouchable. The ceiling is too high and you have him under control for six years. Other than that, it’s finding the right combination of players on your major league roster and top prospects.”
Scouts identified catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty, and lefty starter David Peterson as possibilities the Tigers would want off the major league roster.
One suggested Clay Holmes as well.
The prospects in demand, other than McLean, figure to be pitchers Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong, infielder Jett Williams, first baseman Ryan Clifford, and outfielder Carson Benge.
“It has to be some combination of those players,” said a scout.
Two players sparked much debate among the scouts/execs: Alvarez and Benge.
“Other than pitching, Alvarez could be the key,” one exec said. “It depends how the Tigers’ scouts evaluate him. He showed some growth after the Mets sent him to Triple A, but is he still a 30-home run guy as he was projected to be when he came up? As a catcher that would make him a difference-maker and something to help justify the trade from a PR standpoint.
“If you’re the Mets you have to make the same evaluation. Is it worth giving up a catcher who’s still young (Alvarez turns 24 in November)? I’d have a hard time doing that, on top of what else you’d have to put in the deal.”
Then there is Benge, the minor leaguer who could be the long-term answer to filling the Mets’ hole in center field. Scouts love him for his athleticism and advanced approach at the plate.
“He has a chance to be a .300 hitter with power who can play center field,” one scout said. “How many of those guys are there in the game these days? If I’m the Mets I’m doing everything I can to keep him.
“You know you’re going to have to give up pitching, probably either Tong or Sproat, plus Peterson. And you can live with giving up Jett Williams. But Benge could be special offensively and he fills a big need for the Mets.”
The bottom line is the scouts/execs believe the two teams could find enough common ground on a trade package to make it work, if the Tigers become committed to making a deal. But only two of the six people I spoke to think the chances of it happening are more than 50-50.
The other four think it’s far more likely the Tigers will listen but ultimately decide that Skubal is worth more, even for one more season, than what the Mets or anyone else are offering.
“I just don’t think they’d want to deal with the uproar it would cause among their fans,” one exec said. “That’s a very real factor, especially when you haven’t won a championship in so long and the public perception is that Skubal gives them a chance next year.
“But I’ll say this: if the Mets are willing to go the extra mile, in terms of what they’d give up, they could make it awfully tempting for the Tigers to ignore all the outside noise and decide, let’s do it.”
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