The 2025-26 NBA season is here! We’re rolling out our previews — examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises — from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.
2024-25 finish
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Record: 34-48 (13th in the West, missed playoffs)
Offseason moves
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Additions: Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk, Lindy Waters III, Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, David Jones-Garcia
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Subtractions: Chris Paul, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Kam Jones, Charles Bassey, David Duke Jr.
(Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
The Big Question: Is Victor Wembanyama ready to make his playoff debut?
That’s not exactly a mind-blowing shocker of a setup, I’ll grant. San Antonio’s season will come down to whether or not its best player plays well enough to get the franchise back to the playoffs? Holy crap, dude — thanks for the scoop!
What my framing lacks in surprise, though, it makes up for in, y’know, correctness. All the maneuvering that’s taken place in the eight months since we last saw Wembanyama in live regular-season action — the signings, the draft picks, the hirings — only matters insofar as it allows the Spurs to maximize him and, in turn, allows him to maximize them. This whole revolution’s only going as far as Wembanyama can push it.
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After a globetrotting side quest summer informed by the “traumatic experience” of being diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder and his subsequent realization that “life isn’t forever,” it sure seems like the 7-foot-5 All-Star is eager to push it an awfully long way. What Wembanyama has described as a “brutal,” “violent” and “world-class” offseason of training that included instruction from legendary big men Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Garnett left him not only feeling ready for a return, but itching for one.
“I feel like I need to play basketball now,” he said at Spurs media day.
As it turns out, watching him do that is still rad as hell …
… and inspires thoughts of the Spurs — fresh off maxing out trade-deadline acquisition De’Aaron Fox, striking it rich in the 2025 NBA draft lottery with No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper, and opportunistically adding veteran helpers in free agency — advancing to the postseason for the first time in six years.
The path back to the playoffs starts on the defensive end, where the return of Wembanyama — who’s led the NBA in blocks per game in each of his first two seasons, who finished fourth in defensive estimated plus-minus last year, and who was the odds-on favorite for Defensive Player of the Year before the season-ending blood-clot diagnosis — obviously looms exceptionally large.
The Spurs allowed 112.4 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions with Wembanyama on the floor last season — a top-eight mark in the league over the course of the full season. Without him, though, they gave up the store, conceding 121.6 points-per-100 in his absence — an abdication of resistance miles below what even the ghastly, league-worst Pelicans defense mustered. That 9.2 points-per-100 delta represented the second-largest on-court/off-court differential among defenders who logged at least 1,000 minutes last season, according to Cleaning the Glass, behind only Pascal Siakam in Indianapolis. Shoring up the defensive infrastructure around and, crucially, behind Wembanyama is Job No. 1 in San Antonio.
“This is non-negotiable,” Wembanyama told reporters on media day. “It’s not something you can’t do if you want to be part of our team. We are going to hold each other accountable. We know the coach is going to hold us accountable. It doesn’t matter your status — defense is non-negotiable.”
There’s reason for optimism that the surrounding talent can live up to the big fella’s expectations. Though not considered an elite point-of-attack defender, Fox boasts quick feet and quicker hands, leading the league in steals two seasons ago. Oft-injured sixth-year swingman Devin Vassell (6-5, 6-10 wingspan) and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle (6-6, 6-9 wingspan) both have the tools to take a step forward on that end. When he’s cleared after rehabilitating from thumb surgery, Harper (6-5, 6-10 wingspan) also brings great positional size and prospective defensive versatility in the backcourt — and enough bravado to predict a playoff berth at his introductory post-draft press conference.
[Get more Spurs news: San Antonio team feed]
Free-agent signing Luke Kornet blossomed into one of the NBA’s most underrated players during his tenure in Boston, due in large part to his rim protection. Opponents shot just 52.2% at the basket last season when Kornet was the closest defender — a top-10 mark among players to contest at least 200 up-close tries, according to Second Spectrum tracking. A few spots above him on that list? Wembanyama, at 50% even.
Expect now-firmly-entrenched head coach Mitch Johnson to experiment some with two-big lineups featuring both Wemby and Kornet, which have the potential to turn everything below the free-throw line into a no-fly zone … and also make a little high-low magic on the other end:
Extension-eligible forward Jeremy Sochan was miscast as a point guard and has yet to find firm offensive footing through three pro seasons, but he’s developing into one of the league’s most dogged, physical and versatile point-of-attack defenders — one of a number of intriguing pieces for newly imported associate head coach Sean Sweeney, who helped construct top-10-caliber defenses in Milwaukee, Detroit and Dallas, to move around the chessboard. (It’ll be interesting to see if first-round pick Carter Bryant, who profiles as a potential central-casting 3-and-D addition, pushes his way into the decision-making calculus, too.)
Leaning on the defense might be the best course of action for a Spurs team that scored at a below-league-average rate of efficiency even with Wembanyama on the floor last season, that enters the new campaign with a roster with relatively few proven plus shooters — Vassell, veteran power forward Harrison Barnes, reserve wing Julian Champagnie, new additions Kelly Olynyk and Lindy Waters III — and that will be relying heavily on a gaggle of guards with iffy-at-best long-range strokes. How quickly and effectively Wembanyama and Fox can develop chemistry after playing just 120 minutes together across five games last season could go a long way toward determining the ceiling of San Antonio’s offense … which makes Fox’s media-day revelation that he expects to miss opening night recovering from an offseason hamstring injury at least a little bit concerning, especially with Harper likewise coming off surgery to his shooting hand. (If Johnson responds by moving Castle to the point, and the UConn product shines in a larger on-ball role, an exciting but already somewhat murky pecking order in the Spurs’ backcourt becomes even more interesting.)
The cure for what’s ailed the offense, of course, could just wind up being an even stronger application of That Gigantic French Guy. NBA.com’s John Schuhmann noted that a mere 37% of Wembanyama’s field-goal attempts last season came inside the paint — a function of Big Vic’s determination to explore the outer limits of his unicornic abilities, but also perhaps a misappropriation of 7-foot-5-inch resources. Redistribute some of those looks to the interior, where he can show off some of the hard-won gains of that “brutal,” “violent,” “world-class” offseason …
… and the Spurs’ overall shot quality and offensive efficiency will probably start to tick up no matter who else is on the court. Pair that with continual advancement as a playmaker off the dribble — Wemby’s already talking about turning down “a shot I could make with my eyes closed […] to get one of my teammates a shot he could make in his sleep” — and the Spurs might have the recipe for their first above-average finish in points scored per possession in a half-dozen years.
Pair that with the sort of defensive ascent that Wembanyama’s demanding, and we could be talking about a team poised not only to return to the playoffs, but to be an absolute bear to deal with once they get there.
Best-case scenario
Wembanyama stays healthy for the full season, muscling his way onto the MVP ballot and All-NBA First Team. Fox finds his flow alongside the big fella, returning to the All-Star team and providing San Antonio with the battery of a top-10 offense. Castle cements himself as the kind of 16-game two-way player with which the Spurs will need to surround Wemby; Harper wows enough in a limited role to keep everybody convinced he’s the right long-term running buddy, and that whatever issues the Spurs have to navigate in the backcourt are high-class, champagne problems. San Antonio builds on last season’s 12-win jump, surging to 50 wins and home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs, making it abundantly clear to all parties that the future is here, and it’s French.
If everything falls apart
The expected reinforcements don’t keep the wheels from falling off when Wembanyama hits the bench, drastically lowering San Antonio’s ceiling. Fox’s jumper and fit alongside Vic look shaky, leading to no small amount of grumbling over whether that 30% max might’ve been a tad hasty. None of the young perimeter pieces look quite ready for prime time, leaving fans wondering just how many bona fide blue-chippers they’ve actually got on hand. A season that begins with postseason expectations ends with another sub-.500 finish shy of the play-in tournament, and with the hotly anticipated coronation of the next big thing stalled once again.
2025-26 schedule
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Season opener: Oct. 22 at Dallas
An 11-win leap feels like it’d require neither Wembanyama nor Fox missing significant time and Fox returning to All-Star level after an up-and-down 2024-25. That’s certainly the bet that the Spurs have made; in what looks like, to borrow Vic’s phrasing, a brutal, violent and world-class Western Conference, though, I’m not so sure that’s where I’m willing to put my chips down just yet.
More season previews
East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards
West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz
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