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After more than two months on the sideline, Stephen Curry will make his long-awaited return to face a former teammate when the Golden State Warriors host Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets.
Durant has been stuffing the stat sheet as of late, and my Rockets vs. Warriors predictions expect another strong showing as he returns to the Bay.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this marquee Western Conference matchup on Sunday, April 5.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
Rockets vs Warriors best bet: Kevin Durant Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
The Houston Rockets are riding a five-game win streak, and Kevin Durant’s stellar play has been a huge contributing factor in the recent string of victories.
Across his last five games, KD has averaged 36.2 PRA and gone for 36+ three times. He’s been even more productive across his last seven games, averaging 39.1 PRA while clearing this combo line five times.
The future Hall-of-Famer has averaged 34.5 PRA at home but a whopping 37.5 on the road, and he’s gone for 36+ PRA in three of his last four away games. Durant has cleared this line in 38 of 74 games overall, including 24 of 36 on the road.
Over the last 10 games, the Golden State Warriors have surrendered the 11th-most points and 11th-most assists, and rank 18th in defensive rating. This is not a scary matchup.
Durant could have some extra motivation while facing his former team. In 11 games since leaving Golden State, he’s averaged 34.8 PRA overall and 34.4 in the Bay. I expect the Slim Reaper to show out in Golden State as he looks to extend Houston’s win streak and earn a victory over his former team.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Both teams have covered only four times across their last 10 games, but the Rockets are hot and have the health advantage.
Curry’s return will certainly help Golden State on offense, but Houston sports a healthier and deeper roster. Houston is 3-2 ATS during its current win streak, and Golden State is just 2-3 across its last five.
The Rockets and the Warriors have each hit the Over in three of their last four games, and the teams have gone Over in four of their last six head-to-head meetings. Houston is 18-13 to the Over as the home favorite, and Golden State is 7-4 as the home underdog. I expect the Dubs to get an offensive spark from Curry’s return.
Rockets vs Warriors SGP
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Kevin Durant Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists
Our “from downtown” SGP: Former teammates, familiar foes
Curry might face a minutes restriction in his first game back, but he should see enough playing time to knock down four triples and reach 19 points.
The Chef has scored 19 points in 31 of 39 games this season, and he did so in under 30 minutes eight times. Curry has finished with four triples or four assists 26 times. He pushed to be ready to play Sunday, making this a meaningful contest in which he should be highly motivated.
Durant has been particularly effective as a playmaker as of late. After handing out 6+ dimes in only 20 of his first 68 games of the season, he’s reached that mark in six straight contests.
Rockets vs Warriors SGP
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Stephen Curry Over 18.5 points
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Stephen Curry Over 3.5 made threes
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Stephen Curry Over 3.5 assists
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Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points
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Kevin Durant Over 5.5 assists
Rockets vs Warriors odds
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Spread: Rockets -3.5 (-110) | Warriors +3.5 (-110)
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Moneyline: Rockets -160 | Warriors +135
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Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Rockets vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+12.55 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
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Location |
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
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Date |
Sunday, April 5, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
10:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
NBC |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
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