It’s the final week of September, and Boston Red Sox fans are officially on Standings Watch.
That’s a welcome change from the past three seasons, when the Red Sox didn’t play any meaningful baseball past Labor Day. But October baseball in 2025 is far from guaranteed for Alex Cora’s club, which sits precariously in the second American League Wild Card spot after dropping its series finale to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday.
FanGraphs pegs Boston’s postseason chances at 90.3 percent as of Monday afternoon. But a lot can change between now and Sunday, a six-game stretch that features two series against current division leaders — the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers — to finish the regular season.
So, what exactly does Standings Watch entail for the Red Sox? First, we’ll take a look at the Wild Card standings as of Monday. Then we’ll highlight five teams that Sox fans should monitor this week as a tight AL playoff picture shakes out.
AL Wild Card standings
The New York Yankees own a three-game lead over Boston for the top Wild Card spot. If the season ended Monday, the Yankees would host a three-game Wild Card series vs. the Red Sox, with every game at Yankee Stadium.
The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros are both just one game back of Boston, however. Only three Wild Card teams make the playoffs, so assuming the Yankees keep the top spot, either Cleveland, Houston or Boston will be eliminated.
Here’s a more in-depth look at the Red Sox’ top competitors in the AL Wild Card race, sorted from best to worst record:
New York Yankees
- Record: 88-68
- Games ahead of Red Sox: +3.0
- Remaining schedule: vs. Chicago White Sox, vs. Baltimore Orioles
The schedule gods clearly favor the Yankees, who close out the regular season with three-game series against two of the worst teams in the AL. So, barring a complete collapse, New York should have the top Wild Card spot wrapped up by the weekend. (But a complete collapse would be fun, wouldn’t it?)
Seattle Mariners
- Record: 87-69
- Games ahead of Red Sox: +2.0
- Remaining schedule: vs. Colorado Rockies, vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Mariners took control of the AL West with a weekend sweep of the Astros and now lead Houston by three games.
Assuming they take care of business vs. the Rockies and take at least one game from the Dodgers, they should win the AL West crown. But they’d slide into the Wild Card race if Houston overtakes them, so keep one eye on Seattle this week.
Detroit Tigers
- Record: 85-71
- Games ahead of Red Sox: 0
- Remaining schedule: at Cleveland Guardians, at Red Sox
The Tigers are a sneaky team to watch. The Guardians are on an absolute tear (10-1 in their last 11 games), and if they win this upcoming series with their AL Central rivals, the Tigers will bump down to the Wild Card race.
That could set up a weekend showdown vs. the Red Sox at Fenway Park (Friday to Sunday) with massive implications for Wild Card seeding on the line.
Cleveland Guardians
- Record: 84-72
- Games behind Red Sox: -1.0
- Remaining schedule: vs. Detroit Tigers, vs. Texas Rangers
As mentioned above, the Guardians are coming in HOT. So if you’re a Red Sox fan, you may want to root for Cleveland winning its series vs. Detroit to bump the Tigers — who are 1-9 in their last 10 games — into the Wild Card mix.
If the Tigers win their upcoming series vs. the Guardians, the Red Sox will need to take advantage with at least one or two wins in Toronto to maintain their narrow lead over Cleveland.
Houston Astros
- Record: 84-72
- Games behind Red Sox: -1.0
- Remaining schedule: at Athletics, at Los Angeles Angels
The Astros had a brutal weekend, but they shouldn’t be completely ruled out, especially with two series against the AL West’s cellar dwellers to finish their season. It’s worth noting, however, that Houston is just 4-5 versus the A’s this season and 6-4 versus the Angels.
The good news for Boston: The Red Sox own head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Astros and Guardians.
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