While you were sleeping on Sunday night, the Rangers continued overhauling their lineup by signing OF/DH Joc Pederson to a two-year, $37 million contract, first reported by the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
Joc Pederson’s deal with the Texas Rangers: 2 years, $37 million, with an opt-out after the first year. A perfect fit for their lineup.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 23, 2024
While Pederson has been around for over a decade, his defensive limitations and struggles against left-handed pitching have given him inconsistent fantasy value. However, he’s made some changes in recent years to offset that, and he could be a perfect fit for the Texas lineup and ballpark, so what does moving to Texas mean for Pederson and the rest of the Rangers’ lineup?
What kind of season did Pederson have in 2024?
The 32-year-old had a great season for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2024, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 home runs and a career-high .908 OPS. Pederson has become increasingly selective over the last two seasons, reducing his overall swing rate and chase rate in both seasons, while producing at least a 12% walk rate in 2023 and 2024. While he still has a similar whiff rate, he’s swinging and missing less overall because of the new approach. He’s also more impactful when he does swing because he’s hunting pitches that he can hit and trying to do damage. That’s why his pull rate has gone over 50% in each of the last two seasons, and he had a HR/FB rate over 21% for the first time in a full MLB season since 2019 and just the third time in his career.
However, his great 2024 season was also impacted by the fact that the Diamondbacks gave him only 32 total at-bats against left-handed pitching, which was the fewest he’s ever had in a full MLB season. Since Pederson has historically dominated right-handed pitching, it makes sense that the Rangers would continue to keep him in the game only when a righty is on the mound.
How does Joc Pederson fit with the Rangers?
After the Rangers traded for Jake Burger earlier in the off-season and then traded Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals on Sunday, Pederson will seamlessly fit in as Texas’ everyday DH against right-handed pitching. With Burger at first base, they don’t need to worry about Pederson’s defensive limitations, and he will more than replace the offensive production they were getting from Nathaniel Lowe. Last season, Lowe hit .265/.361/.401 with 16 home runs, 62 runs, and 69 RBI which are all numbers that Pederson should surpass in 2025.
Despite the notion that Globe Life Field is more of a pitchers’ park, it’s also more friendly to left-handed hitters than Chase Field, according to Statcast’s Park Factors. Specifically, Globe Life Field ranks as the 7th-best park in baseball for left-handed power, while Chase Field ranked dead last, so that’s a significant upgrade for Pederson in the power department. In a full-time role, he could push for 30 home runs in Texas with his new pull-centric approach.
How does he impact the rest of the lineup?
The top four in Texas’ lineup figure to remain the same with Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Adolis Garcia hitting in some order. The Rangers then have Jake Burger, Joc Pederson, and Josh Jung (maybe if healthy) coming after them, which not only lengthens the lineup but gives them a strong mix of right-handed and left-handed hitters. Pederson had just 64 RBI in 2024 but should easily be able to top that while hitting behind the names listed above. His presence should also help the run totals of those hitters and give more RBI opportunities to players like Jonah Heim, and Evan Carter, who might hit behind him.
Texas is quietly building a deep and dangerous lineup and one we could be mining for fantasy value in 2025.
Who’s playing time could he take?
If the Rangers are going to play Jake Burger at first base and Joc Pederson at DH then they are back to only three outfield spots for Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Leody Taveras. Injuries and poor performance from Evan Carter in 2024 meant that this wasn’t an issue, but the 22-year-old is reportedly going to be healthy to start the season, so one of those four outfielders is going to be left out of regular playing time in 2025.
While Taveras doesn’t excite fantasy managers, he is an elite defensive center fielder who swiped 23 bases in 2024, so he brings a lot of value to Texas on the field. Given Carter’s struggles in 2024 and his young age, it might be the young lefty who starts the year in Triple-A to get his rhythm back.
Should fantasy managers be excited to draft Pederson?
Sadly, Pederson didn’t play a single inning in the field in 2024 and doesn’t figure to in 2025, so he will be limited to UTIL in all fantasy formats, which puts a damper on his draft stock. However, given his change in approach over the last two years and his new lineup, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit .270 with 25-30 home runs, and 160 Runs+RBI while stealing five or more bases. That’s a pretty solid overall profile if you have roster flexibility elsewhere to simply lock Pederson into your UTIL spot.
However, given that Pederson will only play against right-handed pitching and will likely be removed for a pinch hitter when a left-handed reliever comes into a game, he is more of an asset in daily moves leagues or leagues with multiple lineup locks, like NFBC. Navigating Pederson’s playing time limitations in weekly lineup lock leagues will be a challenge for fantasy managers that will make him less valuable in those formats.
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