It’s do-or-die for the Phillies in Game 3, down two games to none in the National League Division Series. With their backs against the wall in Los Angeles, here’s what looks favorable on the slate.
Odds as of 3:30 PM ET on FanDuel
Game 3 Odds
Philadelphia Phillies (+154): +1.5 (-137)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-184): -1.5 (+114)
O/U: 7.5
The Phils will turn to veteran Aaron Nola to make his 11th career postseason start in this must-win spot. Nola battled injuries and inconsistency during the regular season, posting a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts, but has looked sharper of late. Philadelphia will also have Ranger Suárez (12-8, 3.20 ERA) available out of the bullpen — giving them length and helping avoid their struggling middle relief.
For Los Angeles, it’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto — and he’s been as dominant as anyone. The right-hander finished with the fourth-lowest ERA in the Majors (2.49) over 30 starts, and he’s been untouchable down the stretch. Including his Wild Card Series start, Yamamoto owns a 0.53 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts over his last five outings. He hasn’t allowed a run in his past 24 innings.
Very rarely do the Phillies enter a game exceeding 3-2 odds on the moneyline, but the momentum makes this a unique opportunity. For the first time this series, they’re not starting a left-hander too. It’s hard to imagine a 96-win team getting swept — maybe it’s a gut feeling, maybe it’s variance — but I’m confident Philadelphia pulls this one out.
My suggestion: Phillies moneyline (+154)
My favorite props (57% accuracy in NLDS)
Each Team to Hit 1+ Home Runs (-165)
The ball hasn’t been flying much in this series — small ball and pitching have been the key. Outside of Teoscar Hernández’s Game 1 homer, no other ball has left the yard. Still, Yamamoto has shown some vulnerability at home (7 HR in 68 IP), and Nola has allowed a 1.7 HR/9 rate this year after leading the league in homers allowed in 2024.
Nick Castellanos to record a hit (-145)
Castellanos has faced Yamamoto twice — and he’s picked up a hit. At home, the Dodgers ace is far more hittable for right-handed batters, posting a 4.09 ERA and .701 OPS against (compared to .539 overall). Castellanos is coming off a big Game 2 two-run double, and he feels due for another — possibly with an RBI (+260) if you’re looking for more value.
Aaron Nola under 2.5 strikeouts (+128)
Despite the decision to start Nola over Suárez, expect Rob Thomson to keep him on a short leash. His outs-recorded line (8.5) backs that up. If Nola runs into early traffic, the bullpen will be ready. This is a low total, but the key for Nola will be weak contact, not strikeouts. The value here makes this one of the stronger plays on the board.
My parlay
Two legs: Bryce Harper & Kyle Schwarber to record a hit (+138)
It’s not flashy value, but both lefty bats need to get right. If you use get a profit boost, this play clears +200. Harper is 1-for-7 and Schwarber is hitless in the series, but after the off-day reset, they’re the two most likely to break through. If you’re feeling aggressive, Harper & Schwarber each to record 2+ total bases is +362.
My long shot
Brandon Marsh to hit a home run (+800)
Yes, Marsh has struck out twice in his only two ABs against Yamamoto — but there’s something about him vs. right-handers. During the regular season, the Phillies outfielder slashed .300/.356/.482 against them, with 35 extra-base hits (nine homers). He’s one of the few bats capable of sparking the bottom of the lineup. If you like him for extra-bases, 2+ total bases at +210 is a smart secondary play.
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