CLEARWATER, Fla. — It’s been said that the Phillies have one of the best top-to-bottom rotations in baseball going into the new season.
Of course, many who said it also thought the Eagles should be underdogs to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIX. As Yogi Berra noted, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Once the first pitch is thrown at Nationals Park on March 27, those rah-rah words will be worthless as Confederate money. All that will matter is how well they actually pitch.
And the best-case scenario is intoxicating.
Zack Wheeler replicates his 2024 dominance and wins his first Cy Young Award after two agonizingly close misses. Aaron Nola sidesteps the one-bad-inning syndrome that has dogged him recently and also earns Cy Young votes. Left-hander Ranger Suarez, who was scary good a year ago before a variety of ailments derailed him, goes wire-to-wire at the top of his form. Cristopher Sanchez continues to blossom. Jesus Luzardo, the signature offseason acquisition, bounces back from injuries and pitches as well as he did for the Marlins in 2022 and 2023.
But …
And you knew there was going to be a but …
Wheeler will turn 35 at the end of May. Including the playoffs, he’s pitched more than 200 innings each of the past two seasons, the first time he’s carried that workload in back-to-back years.
Nola has been remarkably consistent throughout his career but has fallen into a curious every-other-year pattern. Since his breakout season in 2018, his ERA has been much better in even-numbered years (3.07) than odd (4.32). The hope, then, is he breaks that mold in ’25.
Suarez was a beast through his first 15 starts in 2024 (10-1, 1.75) and largely ineffective after that (4-8, 6.17 in 12 starts with two trips to the injured list). He’s already dealing with back stiffness that may delay his start to the season. He’s also in his contract year, which some players embrace. And some don’t. Sanchez’ ERA also rose significantly in the second half, 3.79 compared to 2.96. And after a career year (10-10, 3.58, 208 strikeouts) for the Marlins in 2023, Luzardo was limited to 12 starts last year by elbow and lower back problems.
What will actually happen as the schedule unspools will almost certainly land somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. But write this down in ink: Every team will need more than their original five starters before it’s all over.
In 2024, MLB teams used an average of 12.87 different starting pitchers. Only the Mariners (7), Padres and Yankees (8) and Royals (9) needed fewer than 10. At the other end of the spectrum, the Dodgers, White Sox and Brewers required 17, the Angels 18 and the Marlins a staggering 20. Four full rotations’ worth.
The Phillies used an even dozen. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is relatively satisfied that the organization is well-armed to withstand the unexpected challenges that will inevitably pop up along the way.
“As confident as one can be,” he said earlier this spring while sitting in his BayCare Ballpark office. “You never can have enough options if the wrong guys get hurt. But the reality is that I think we’re about as deep as we’ve been in starting pitching since I’ve been here.”
Here are some of the potential options:
Joe Ross
The 31-year-old right-hander was used as a swingman by the Brewers last season before signing a one-year, $4 million contract with the Phillies that includes bonuses which could add another $1 million if he stays on the active roster all season. It has to be noted, though, that he had a 4.98 ERA in 10 starts for Milwaukee compared to 1.67 in 15 relief appearances.
Andrew Painter
The Phillies are bringing their touted 21-year-old uber-prospect along cautiously coming off his July 2023 Tommy John surgery but the expectation is that he’ll make his MLB debut this season.
Taijuan Walker
He was considered a longshot coming into spring training after an ugly 3-7, 7.10 stat line last season, but pitched well enough in the Grapefruit League to allow the organization to believe it could still get some value from the remaining two years and $36 million on his contract … or make him attractive to another team looking for pitching.
Which starter might get promoted from the minors when a need arises often depends on how well each candidate is performing at the time, as well as how well their next scheduled start lines up with when the big-league club has the hole to fill. “Some of our young starting pitching is starting to progress where we feel like they can give us some depth,” Dombrowski said. That category would include:
Seth Johnson
The 25-year-old acquired from Baltimore at last year’s deadline made his MLB debut last September after putting up a 1.52 ERA in August at Double A Reading. He’s really thrown the ball well,” manager Rob Thomson said early in spring training. “His one start, first in the major leagues last year in Miami (8 H, 3 BB, 9 ER in 2.1 IP), I kind of take that with a grain of salt. He’s throwing strikes while he’s been here. “
Moises Chace
The 21-year-old, who came to the Phillies along with Johnson in the deal that sent Gregory Soto to the Orioles, had 124 strikeouts in 80.1 innings at three minor league levels last season but also walked 40. If he can improve his command, he could arrive sooner rather than later.
Mick Abel
The Phillies’ first-round draft choice in 2020 hasn’t lived up to expectations to this point, mostly due to control issues. But he still has the power arm that tantalized scouts and, at 23, still has a chance to put it all together. “He’s really growing up. He gained 10, 15 pounds over the winter and he’s strong,” Thomson said.
Jean Cabrera
Was added to the 40-man roster in December after pitching in 20 games (19 starts) for High A Jersey Shore and Double A Reading last year. He struck out 110 in 106.2 innings and had a 1.21 WHIP.
Tyler Phillips
After being called up in June, he went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his first three starts. In his next three, though, his ERA was 13.91. But he’s experienced – 134 minor-league starts – and could be the right man at the right time if help is needed. Phillips is out of minor-league options.
Concluded Dombrowski: “I’m as comfortable where we are as you can be. But, again, you never know if it’s going to be enough.”
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