“I get the competitiveness of Canelo, and I respect it because lately I haven’t really respected a lot of his opponent choices. I respect the move that he’s making, but it’s a tough fight, and at 36, that kind of pace, I don’t think it’s something he can handle.”
“I don’t think Canelo beats him. Pace is the worst thing for Canelo. I think Canelo is more skilled than Mbilli, but when you couldn’t handle a fast pace in your prime, a fast pace like that at 36 years old is tough. Mbilli makes up for his lack of skills with his pace. He’s not here because of his skills. I don’t know if Canelo can offset that pace. I really don’t,” said Malignaggi to Fight Hub TV.
The age difference alone does not decide the fight. What favors Mbilli is his willingness to keep working after the first combination. Alvarez has become increasingly selective with his punches, conserving energy and waiting for clean counters instead of matching an opponent’s activity.
Canelo’s Guard Will Absorb More Than Punches
A high guard allows Alvarez to catch punches on his gloves, shoulders and forearms. That defense limits clean contact, but it does not remove the physical cost of blocking repeated combinations. Dmitry Bivol kept hitting the guard and forced Alvarez to carry the weight of his attacks.
Not every punch must reach Canelo’s head or body. Blows landing on the arms can gradually reduce the speed and authority of Alvarez’s counters. If his shoulders and biceps begin to tire by the middle rounds, the technical advantage Malignaggi identified becomes harder to use.
Portions of recent fights have also found Canelo along the ropes, reducing his movement and looking for single counters. Resting there is far more dangerous against Mbilli. The challenger works at close range without waiting to see the effect of every shot. Even blocked combinations can leave an impression with judges if Alvarez remains covered while Mbilli controls the action.
The difference in activity was visible on the same September 2025 card. Mbilli threw 787 punches across 10 rounds against Lester Martinez, nearly 79 per round. Canelo attempted only 338 during his 12-round loss to Terence Crawford, an average of just over 28. Mbilli threw 449 more punches despite boxing six fewer minutes. The figures come from unofficial CompuBox totals published by The Ring and Sports Illustrated.
That output came despite Martinez repeatedly shoving Mbilli backward to create separation before punching. Those interruptions kept Mbilli from remaining at the distance where he did his best work. Canelo is unlikely to match that activity or spend the fight continually pushing Mbilli outside.
Alvarez landed 83 of 260 power punches against Crawford but attempted only 78 jabs. Those figures show how dependent he has become on selective power shots rather than sustained combinations. Mbilli will give him far less recovery time between those attempts.
Early body work offers Canelo his best chance to reduce that output. He cannot afford to wait several rounds before targeting the ribs and liver. Mbilli must be given a reason to slow down before his pressure begins draining Alvarez’s arms and legs.
The opportunity will be there because Mbilli can be hit. He leans over his front foot while unloading, leaving a lane for Canelo’s right uppercut and short hooks. Sergiy Derevyanchenko found Mbilli’s chin with counters despite fighting with an injured arm. Alvarez is more accurate and carries considerably more power.
The fight therefore turns on one question. Can Canelo hurt Mbilli badly enough early to control the pace, or can Mbilli absorb those counters and continue throwing?
Scorecard interpretation adds another difficulty. Judges often favor Canelo’s clean, visible counters over punches caught on his guard. Mbilli cannot depend on activity alone. He must keep Alvarez defending long enough to make control of each round unmistakable.
Respect for Canelo’s decision to accept the fight does not erase the physical concern. Alvarez may be the more complete boxer, but Mbilli owns the weapon Malignaggi believes Canelo is least equipped to handle at this stage of his career.
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