The Oklahoma City Thunder won yet another home game this postseason on Monday night, beating the Indiana Pacers 120-109 in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals and covering as 9.5-point favorites. The game went over the total for the second time this series.
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point road favorites in Indianapolis tonight, but the line shifted to -6.5 at BetMGM after news that Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton has a strained right calf and will be listed as a game-time decision. The total also dropped a point to 223.5 to 222.5 off the news, and went down to 221.5 — before coming back up to 222.5 at the time of publication.
The public is backing Oklahoma City to cover, with 58% of the bets and 61% of the total dollars wagered on Thunder -5.5 at BetMGM sportsbooks.
Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Jon Metler for his thoughts on Game 6 of the Finals and a best bet:
Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 222.5) at Indiana Pacers
Metler: “It’s an opportunity to win the NBA Finals on the road. If you’re not leaning on the league MVP more than ever, I’ll be stunned. Also, you don’t think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wants to put any Jalen Williams Finals MVP talk to bed in a potential closeout game?
“The Pacers’ defensive strategy of focusing all their energy on SGA and allowing free lanes to the basket for Williams is a losing one. With more attention likely going toward J-Dub after his 40-piece in Game 5, I think this just opens up the floor even more for SGA.
“The Haliburton injury also looms large in Game 6. I wouldn’t be surprised if, should Haliburton be out or limited, Andrew Nembhard ends up guarding SGA for fewer minutes because they’ll need Nembhard more on the offensive end. The Pacers will also most likely lean into a smaller, more offensive lineup without Haliburton, which will only make the defense easier for SGA to exploit.
“You only have a small edge on this prop, but I believe it should be trading at -115 instead of +110.”
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points (+110)
Metler: “Haliburton’s status for Game 6 is still up in the air, but I think we can safely conclude that, even if he does play, his offensive game will be extremely limited. Being limited against the elite perimeter defenders of the Thunder isn’t a recipe for success, and the Pacers will no doubt have to lean on someone else to run the offense.
“TJ McConnell initially jumps out as that guy, but he’s someone who plays 15-20 minutes per night regardless of Haliburton’s availability — that’s just his role. I think the usage will actually shift toward Nembhard, who has proven to be calm and collected handling the ball under the pressure of the Thunder’s defense.
“Nembhard has primarily been used as a defensive stopper against SGA in this series, but with Haliburton dealing with a calf injury, I believe his role could dramatically shift in Game 6. Both of these totals are alternate overs for Nembhard, and I think this is the best way to attack the scenario — with a low-risk, high-reward SGP versus a full-unit straight bet — because we truly don’t know Haliburton’s status. If Haliburton is ruled out, this SGP won’t be trading anywhere near +700 at game time.”
Best bet: Andrew Nembhard 15+ points and 6+ assists (+704)
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