The Oklahoma City Thunder won Game 4 of the NBA Finals 111-104 over the Indiana Pacers on Friday night, covering their first spread on the road this postseason. The Thunder are now 1-8 against the spread on the road in the 2025 playoffs, but 8-3 ATS at home.
Oklahoma City came into the NBA Finals as huge -700 favorites at BetMGM, and it’s shocking the series is tied 2-2 and has been as competitive as it’s been. But even with the series knotted up, Oklahoma City is still an overwhelming -625 favorite to win the series at BetMGM with two potential home games remaining. Indiana is a +450 underdog.
Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point home favorite in Game 5 with a total of 224.5. Three of the four games in the finals have gone under the total.
Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Michael Fiddle for his thoughts on Game 5 of the Finals and a best bet:
Game 5: Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5, 224.5)
Fiddle: “I like Oklahoma City on the moneyline here at -405. This is the basement price for OKC correlated to -9.5, as the line closed higher than this for both Game 1 and Game 2 with late action on the Thunder. I think [that late action] comes again and this closes around -415 or -420 consensus price, [so it’s] worth it to be ahead.
“I prefer the moneyline to the spread here because Indiana does play so game-theory optimal [a poker term for the correct math-type play every time] late in games when down with fast possessions, high volume 3s, low turnovers, various players looking to create, etc.
“Oklahoma City has been insanely dominant at home this postseason, going 9-2 with a +236 point differential through 11 games.”
Best bet: Thunder ML -405
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