The Indiana Pacers won Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night, 116-107, over the Oklahoma City Thunder as 5.5-point home underdogs, continuing Indiana’s impressive postseason run against the spread. The Thunder are now 0-8 ATS on the road in the 2025 playoffs.
Oklahoma City came into the NBA Finals as huge -700 favorites at BetMGM, and very few people expected them to be down 2-1 in the series. But even with the deficit, Oklahoma City is still the -250 favorite to win the series at BetMGM, with Indiana a +200 underdog.
Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point road favorite in Game 4 with a total of 226.5. The spread is the biggest for any road favorite since at least the 1991 Finals. The second-largest was the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers, a team that was -6 in Game 5 at the Philadelphia 76ers in that series.
Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Jon Metler for his thoughts on some best bets for Game 4 of the Finals:
Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5, 226.5) at Indiana Pacers
Metler: “All eyes were on Bennedict Mathurin in Game 3, but let’s not forget it was Obi Toppin who poured in 17 points in Game 1 after knocking down five triples against the Thunder. After going under his point total in Game 3, this number has dropped from 10.5 to 9.5, creating an edge we can attack. Toppin scored eight points in Game 3 but failed to hit a 3-pointer on three attempts. If Toppin was knocking down 3s and still falling short of his total, that would be a red flag — but it’s quite the opposite, as he managed eight points without a 3-pointer.
“Toppin is giving the Pacers good minutes, leading them in plus-minus in Games 1 and 3, and there’s no reason to assume he’ll see a dip in minutes in Game 4. His athleticism has served him well against the Thunder defense, and I believe the over 9.5 points should be trading closer to -195 than even money.”
Best bet: Obi Toppin over 9.5 points (+100)
Metler: “Yes, you’re reading that correctly — the total is 0.5 for (Aaron) Nesmith, and the over is trading at plus money. Nesmith isn’t a high-assist player by any means, but this is a Rudy Gobert-type line. The bottom line is that Nesmith is a starter on a team where the ball doesn’t stick, so it’s very possible to luck into an assist without doing anything particularly special.
“Nesmith has only one assist in the series, but he’s averaging 2.7 potential assists per game. That’s a high number for someone whose over 0.5 line is priced at +110. Nesmith played just 22 minutes in Game 3, which I don’t think will be the norm going forward — but even if he sees the same limited minutes in Game 4, there’s still a solid edge on this prop. I think Nesmith should be trading closer to -180 for Over 0.5 assists in Game 4.”
Best bet: Aaron Nesmith over 0.5 assists (+110)
Metler: “Mark Daigneault has moved away from the double-big lineup in the NBA Finals, and now we’re seeing (Isaiah) Hartenstein priced like a player who will play fewer than 20 minutes in Game 4. That’s where the edge lies — even if Hartenstein only plays 18 minutes, there’s still value on this prop. As Myles Turner continues to bully Chet Holmgren in the paint, who’s to say Hartenstein doesn’t start stealing some of Holmgren’s minutes?
“The Thunder have tried using Holmgren at the nail as a passer to cutters in the dunker spot — a role much better suited for Hartenstein. We saw Hartenstein thrive in that exact setup in Game 2, where he racked up nine potential assists. Even with limited minutes, I believe Hartenstein’s 2+ assists should be trading closer to -190, creating a clear probability gap we can exploit.”
Best bet: Isaiah Hartenstein 2+ assists (-128)
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