OKLAHOMA CITY — Nobody should be talking about market size or ratings now. We have witnessed one of the most entertaining, well-played NBA Finals in recent memory — it needed to go seven games. It’s had a little bit of everything.
While this series has been a chess match that will thrill fans of the Xs and Os of the game (Indiana moving the pick-up point back in Game 6 was one big one that threw Oklahoma City off for a night), Game 7s are more about execution than strategic changes. At this point in the series, there are no secrets.
“It’s a contest of wills. I think the reason it swung between the two teams is because these are two teams that have leaned on that heavily to get to this point,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “It’s two teams where the whole is better than the sum of the parts. It’s two teams that are highly competitive. Two teams that play together. Two teams that kind of rely on the same stuff for their success that are squaring off against each other.”
Game 7 will be about execution under the brightest lights in basketball. Which team, which players will step up?
We’ve got four things to watch for in Game 7. Four things will determine who will be on the podium next to Adam Silver after the game.
Thunder’s home court advantage
This is not about how home teams are 15-4 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals (the most recent one, in 2016, went to the road team, Cleveland, over Golden State).
The Thunder’s home court advantage is much more potent than that — OKC is 10-2 at home in these playoffs. That easily could have been 12-0 save for some last-second heroics (Aaron Gordon’s 3-pointer with 3 seconds left for Denver; Tyrese Haliburton’s pull-up with 0.3 left in Game 1 of this series).
It’s much more than the record: The Thunder have a +20.7 net rating at home, compared to a -6.2 net rating on the road (where they are 5-5). Thunder players openly discuss how they feed off their raucous crowd, and this becomes most noticeable on defense — the Thunder’s defensive rating is 12.7 points per 100 possessions better at home this postseason.
“You’re ultimately in your complete comfort zone,” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said of their home court advantage. “The flow to the day doesn’t change. You’re in your own bed. You have shootaround at your building. You eat your pregame meal from your chef or your whoever. It’s very comfortable, the whole flow to the day, and then the crowd is behind you. They give you energy, whether you’re up or down or whatever is going on in the night. It’s an advantage.”
The energy the Thunder players get from their deafening crowd is real.
“The crowd. You know, they work in our favor,” Cason Wallace said. “They’re rowdy and they’re into the game, and that gives us a boost and an edge.”
The Pacers have been a strong road team this postseason, with a 7-4 record away from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and have generally played teams evenly (a minus-0.6 point differential). They have won one game on the road this series, they know what is coming and how to withstand it.
“Crowds give you a little bit more energy, a little bit more burst. We are going to be practically alone tomorrow,” T.J. McConnell said. “This crowd here in Oklahoma City is amazing. It’s going to be very loud. We have to be ready.”
Haliburton’s health
Tyrese Haliburton’s strained left calf wasn’t much of an issue in Game 6. That doesn’t mean it should be ignored in Game 7.
There were a couple of moments early in Game 6 when he clearly hesitated to push off on his left leg, but it ultimately didn’t matter because his shot was falling and the Thunder’s defensive pressure was not cranked up to its usual intensity. Haliburton finished with 14 points, five assists, and played less than 23 minutes in the blowout.
Also of note: The Thunder rarely dragged Haliburton into a pick-and-roll and made him move laterally quickly on defense. Expect more of that in Game 7.
Haliburton says he is ready.
“I’m pretty much in the same standpoint I was before Game 6. A little stiff, a little sore, rather,” Haliburton said. “Good thing I only had to play like 23 minutes. I’ve been able to get even more treatment and do more things. Just trying to take care of it the best I can. But I’ll be ready to go for Game 7.”
Watch how he is moving early and how much the Thunder test him.
Turnovers, offensive rebounds
Both of these teams are built on winning the possession game: forcing turnovers, not turning the ball over themselves, securing some offensive rebounds, scoring easy buckets in transition, and simply creating more scoring opportunities than their opponent.
Which team has executed that has swung from game to game, but in Game 6 it was clearly Indiana.
“I think last game, we didn’t play our brand of basketball and we didn’t play our brand of defense and we just let them be comfortable,” Isaiah Hartenstein said of the Thunder. “So I think it’s a mix of things. They do a great job of never changing the way they play. So they get out, they run. And it’s our job to just get back to playing our style of defense and going from there.”
Turnovers and bench points will be bellwethers in Game 7, as they have been throughout the series.
Lessons from Game 6, former Game 7s
Game 7s don’t happen in a vacuum, and both teams talked about learning from past experiences.
For the Thunder, it was Game 7 against the Nuggets in these playoffs. This Finals series has eerily followed the form of the second-round showdown between Denver and Oklahoma City, from the heartbreaking loss in Game 1 to the blowout loss in Game 6. Against the Nuggets, the Thunder played their best game of the series in Game 7, winning comfortably at home.
“What Game 7 taught me from Denver is the swings — three feels like you’re down 10, you know what I mean? One feels like you’re down five,” Jalen Williams said. “That’s just like the swing of a game, and what is going on feels much larger. It’s about honing in your emotion and understanding the state of the game is big for Game 7.”
The Pacers have a few things to draw on.
“Honestly, for us the last three games have all been Game 7s,” Myles Turner said.
One of those was Game 6 from just a couple of days ago. With their backs against the wall, Indiana played with a genuine desperation that Oklahoma City did not come close to matching.
“Last game, we didn’t want them celebrating on our court, so we understood the assignment, we understood we had to come in here and be dogs, and get that job done,” Obi Toppin said. “And now it’s on to game seven. We got, we got to do the same thing we did in game six and get the job done.”
Asked about his favorite Game 7 memory, Aaron Nesmith didn’t hesitate to bring up the Pacers’ biggest win of a season ago — one that can apply to this year.
“Ours, against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden,” Nesmith said, referencing a Game 7 win on the road the team had last season. “That was an incredible atmosphere and a moment that I loved playing in.”
This Pacers core has won a Game 7 on the road in an incredibly hostile environment. It has won in this building in the NBA Finals. Don’t sleep on their chances to do it again — but this is a much bigger stage and much brighter lights.
What has been a brilliant series hopefully ends with a Game 7 to match.
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