Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.
The Orioles have 15 games to play and it is likely that the absolute minimum record they would need over those games to get into a wild card spot is 11-4. Even this might have them come up short, depending on how the teams ahead of them in the wild card standings finish over their own final stretches of the regular season.
The odds are heavily against the Orioles pulling off this miracle. Anyone who has watched them play this season does not need to see any exact percentage (6.8% on Baseball Reference, 4.3% on FanGraphs) to know this. The team is beset by many problems. You voted last week that the offense was most likely to hold the team back, with bullpen getting a respectable second place. Subsequent events have not done much to contradict that.
In this week’s poll, I was interested to see how close people think that the Orioles are going to get. Will it be a total collapse? A similar treading of water? Will they get just close enough to make every one of the particularly agonizing losses they’ve suffered this year hurt all the more? Here’s how the votes came in for this one:
That’s a majority thinking the Orioles will end up just about where they are now after beating the Guardians in two of three games. That’s put them at three games back. A healthy second place is those who expect a further collapse. It could certainly happen if the O’s flop in their six remaining games against the Blue Jays, games that the Jays need to get themselves past the Guardians and into a wild card spot for themselves.
Just about one in five people who voted believe that the team will either creep closer or somehow make it into a postseason spot.
A couple of representative thoughts from the comments section about this question:
Commenter TimeWillNotDim:
I voted 5+. This team’s weaknesses have been exposed and they’re too legion. If they were going to play consistently good baseball at some point in the season they would have done it by now.
Commenter Ponticar:
I fully expect the Orioles to win four of their next five to make everyone think they have a chance, then drop five of the next six to how they were only kidding.
The Orioles are part of the way there to this second prediction. They just have to win tonight and tomorrow against the Blue Jays. It wouldn’t surprise me either, if they manage to do this. That’s been the way they’ve played all season.
This week’s survey is sponsored by FanDuel.
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