A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Will Warren’s 4.61 ERA is a lie
Warren ended April with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, but he’s recorded a 3.18 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 24 strikeouts over 17.1 innings in May. Moreover, both of his runs allowed should’ve been unearned his last time out. Warren’s season 4.61 ERA comes with a 3.46 SIERA that’s top 25 among qualified starters. His 31.1% CSW would rank sixth, just ahead of Jacob deGrom (2.29 ERA). Warren’s K-BB% (20.5) is top 15 over the last month. Yankee Stadium isn’t an easy place to pitch, but most players perform better at home, and five of Warren’s last six starts have come on the road.
Warren’s ability to miss bats and induce ground balls should lead to a much lower ERA moving forward. His LOB% (64.8) would be third lowest among qualified starters and will regress to the mean. Warren is also likely to start winning more games while pitching for a Yankees’ offense leading the American League in runs scored. Warren has real fantasy upside moving forward (and has a two-start week), yet he’s available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues.
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Jordan Romano’s five saves are a lie
Romano got off to a slow start this season coming off elbow surgery, but he’s tossed eight straight scoreless innings. He has a 0.50 WHIP and an 11:1 K:BB ratio over that span. Romano’s 7.27 ERA is accompanied by a 3.28 SIERA and a 33.7% CSW that ranks 11th among 186 qualified relievers.
Romano has lost seven saves to José Alvarado this season, but he’s been suspended 80 games. Lefty Matt Strahm may get the occasional save when matchups dictate, but Romano is now the heavy favorite to close in Philadelphia with Alvarado out of the picture. The Phillies have provided the fourth-most save opportunities (23) in baseball this season, so Romano should start racking them up.
Hayden Birdsong’s one win is a lie
Birdsong is stuck on just one victory this season thanks to pitching in middle relief, but he’s about to replace Jordan Hicks in San Francisco’s starting rotation. Birdsong posted a 0.75 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP and an 18:0 K:BB ratio during spring training, and he’s been effective out of the bullpen (2.31 ERA) to open the season. Birdsong still needs to work on his control, but he has the stuff to be a dynamic starter. The Giants have a strong bullpen and play in one of baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s parks, so Birdsong should start winning more games now that he’s back starting. He’s available in 70% of Yahoo leagues.
Max Meyer’s 4.47 ERA is a lie
Meyer’s 4.47 ERA comes with a 3.15 SIERA that ranks top 10 among all qualified starters, just behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale and just ahead of Garrett Crochet, Jacob deGrom and Paul Skenes. Meyer ranks top 20 in K-BB% (19.9) and top 10 in CSW (30.4%). Among those 10 pitchers, seven have ERAs in the twos, two have ERAs in the threes, and then there’s Meyer with a 4.47 ERA. He’s struggled giving up homers throughout his brief MLB career, but Meyers’ 20.5 HR/FB% is bottom five among starting pitchers and is likely to come down.
Meyer has especially struggled over his last four starts (and he’s only 44% rostered as a result), but his velocity has remained intact. Meyer’s fantasy value will continue to be hindered while pitching for the Marlins, but his ERA should greatly improve moving forward.
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