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The San Antonio Spurs are locked into the No. 2 seed, but a win today over the Denver Nuggets could mean avoiding Nikola Jokic & Co. in the second round of the playoffs.
While Denver enters the final day of the regular season as the third seed, there’s still potential to slide back, and my Nuggets vs. Spurs predictions favor a San Antonio squad sitting fewer players.
Take a closer look at this clash on Sunday, April 12, with my NBA picks and betting angles.
Nuggets vs Spurs prediction
Nuggets vs Spurs best bet: Spurs -11.5 (-110)
These teams have served up three thrillers already this season, including an overtime classic earlier this month, but the lengthy injury reports suggest today’s matchup will have less star power.
In that scenario, I have more faith in the San Antonio Spurs’ depth, with Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant among those poised for bigger roles if neither Victor Wembanyama nor Stephon Castle, both questionable, play. The Spurs are 22-16-1 ATS at home this year, and they’ve lost just once at Frost Bank Center since January 25.
Meanwhile, it’s going to be a real mash unit for the Denver Nuggets, with Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson all ruled out.
Nikola Jokic (questionable) could log some minutes to hit the 65-game mark, but the visitors will otherwise turn to a collection of fringe rotation guys while shifting their attention toward the playoffs.
That’s enough for me to lay the large spread with the relentless Spurs, who are 9-1 straight up in their last 10, and 32-7 SU at home this year.
Mitch Johnson can still call on a talented rotation, which may even include De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes, and that’s a formula for a comfortable home victory here, ending Denver’s 11-game win streak.
Nuggets vs Spurs same-game parlay
Plenty of San Antonio wins have been sparked by defensive tenacity, and the Under is 47-35 for the hosts this season.
It’s also 6-3 in the Spurs’ last nine outings, and I’m counting on that grit to keep the total below an O/U number that feels high, especially with so many regulars missing for the Nuggets.
Nuggets vs Spurs SGP
Our “from downtown” SGP: Straw man argument
There have likely been times this season when Julian Strawther wished he were a bigger part of the Denver offense. Well, tonight is the night for Strawther, who’s walking into all the minutes he can handle, and he poured in 22 points last time out while dishing three assists. Tyus Jones will be another beneficiary of the Nuggets’ decision to rest key players for the playoffs, upping his role as a facilitator.
Nuggets vs Spurs SGP
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Julian Strawther Over 15.5 points
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Julian Strawther Over 1.5 assists
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Julian Strawther Over 3.5 rebounds
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Tyus Jones Over 5.5 assists
Nuggets vs Spurs odds
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Spread: Nuggets +11.5 (-110) | Spurs -11.5 (-110)
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Moneyline: Nuggets +400 | Spurs -550
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Over/Under: Over 233 (-110) | Under 233 (-110)
Nuggets vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Spurs are 30-3 SU in their last 33 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Spurs.
How to watch Nuggets vs Spurs
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Location |
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
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Date |
Sunday, April 12, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
8:30 p.m. ET |
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TV |
ESPN |
Nuggets vs Spurs latest injuries
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