New York Mets
2024 record: 89-73
Third place NL East
Team ERA: 3.96 (15th in MLB)
Team OPS: .734 (9th in MLB)
What Went Right
For a while it felt like nothing could or would go right for this Mets team. They sat at 24-34 on June 1st – the third worst record in the National League – after a nightmarish May that included a heap of blown saves, dramatic losses, and one viral temper tantrum.
Then, everything changed in June when a certain purple, McDonalds mascot with cosmic powers graced the Mets with a divine presence that turned their season around.
More so, manager Carlos Mendoza shifted around his lineup in mid-May to put Francisco Lindor at lead-off and make Mark Vientos the everyday third baseman. Those two changes made this one of the most potent lineups in baseball.
Lindor washed away a .195/.268/.362 slash line through May 18th – the day he was made the lead-off hitter – to finish the season with 33 home runs, 29 stolen bases, 107 runs scored, 91 RBI, and an .844 OPS across 152 games. He would’ve had his second straight 30-30 season if not for a late season back injury. Also, his 137 wRC+ was the highest mark of his entire career. Which is funny, because I always heard his best seasons happened in Cleveland.
Then, there’s Vientos. He was arguably the best offensive third baseman in the National League after being promoted. His .837 OPS was best of all NL third baseman with at least 300 plate appearances and he added 27 homers over 111 games to boot. The good times kept rolling for him in the playoffs with five more homers and 14 RBI. Looking back, he became the lynchpin for the Mets’ magical run.
Otherwise, the rest of the offense was middling besides the age-less José Iglesias. Similarly to Vientos, Iglesias took over as a regular in early June and never stopped hitting. His .337 batting average was the highest in baseball for any player with at least 250 PA and his .830 OPS set a new career-high sans 2020. Also, he released the hit single “OMG” that became a rallying cry for the Mets’ clubhouse and featured Pitbull on a remix in October. Special would be an understatement for his season.
On the pitching side, Sean Manaea turned in by far the best season of his career and grew into the ace of this Mets staff. He logged a career-high 181 2/3 and crossed the 200 inning plateau if you included his postseason work. With that, he completed six innings in 13 of his last 17 starts and likely put himself in position for a nice pay day this winter.
Manaea was flanked by Luis Severino, David Peterson, and Jose Quintana in this surprisingly effective Mets’ rotation.
Severino started 30 games for the first time since 2018 and led this rotation with 182 IP. While no longer elite, his 3.91 ERA was passable and he showed that his slider – now classified as a sweeper – is one of the most devastating pitches in the league.
Peterson recovered from hip labrum surgery mid-season and cruised to a 2.91 ERA over 21 starts and 121 IP. The Mets went 15-6 in games he pitched.
Lastly, Quintana was struggling through a tough season until a stretch through August and September where he threw nearly 30 consecutive scoreless innings and pushed his regular season ERA down to 3.75. This was truly a ragtag bunch that got the job done.
What Went Wrong
Not much went outright wrong for this Mets team. They got middling performances from presumed stars like Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, but Nimmo was obviously dealing with injuries for most of the second half and Alonso was the star he’s always been in the playoffs.
Kodai Senga’s series of injuries was unfortunate. His rehab from a shoulder issue that popped up during spring training was slower than expected and he strained his calf in the sixth inning of the only regular season start he’d make. Just chalk this one up as a lost season for him.
On the surface, it felt like Edwin Díaz was something that went wrong. He was removed from the closer role in May after a flurry of blown saves and then had a stretch in August where he blew two back-breakers against the Diamondbacks and Padres, respectively. Yet, his ERA finished at 3.52 with a 3.02 FIP and 2.59 xFIP to indicate some bad luck and his 38.9 K% was second highest among all qualified relievers in the league. That’s a good season altogether.
Again, not that these things went wrong, but Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil, JD Martinez, Jesse Winker, and Starling Marte each had streaky seasons that had high highs, low lows, and wound up right around league average by the end.
Fantasy Slants
Lindor is one of the most stable assets in fantasy. He strives to play 162 games every year, will hit atop a very good lineup, hit around 30 homers, and steal around 30 bases. The ceiling and the floor are remarkably close together for a projected top-20 pick.
Vientos will be interesting to monitor ahead of draft season. It’s a one dimensional, power-only profile without even a full season of elite production. However, he silenced almost every doubt in just 111 games by significantly improving his pitch selection – his SEAGER jumped from the 24th to 78th percentile – and pulling more fly balls. Both allowed him to get to his power more consistently even with ample swing-and-miss in his profile. He seems like he’ll settle in around the Royce Lewis, Jordan Westburg, and Spencer Steer tier after the high-end third basemen go off the board.
Senga should be all systems go for spring training after appearing three times during the playoffs. He struggled through those appearances though, walking seven batters and allowing seven earned runs in five innings. That shouldn’t alter your outlook of him though as he still figures to be one of the top-40 starting pitchers off the board with serious strikeout upside.
There’s worry Alonso’s down year is part of a larger trend. His strikeout rate has risen for three straight seasons after falling in each of his first four. More worrisome, he did less damage on pitches in the heart of the zone and seemed to be squeezing the bat a little too tight all year with his free agency looming.
Nimmo had an all-time frustrating season. He exploded in the first half with 16 homers and an .815 OPS, but hit .190 after the break and watched his power evaporate. It came out during the playoffs that he was struggling with plantar fasciitis and had a visible limp for most of the NLCS. Sadly, injuries have always been part of his profile and that magical, fully healthy season with power, speed (he stole a career-high 15 bases), and batting average from him may just never come.
Manaea’s breakout was spurned from an arm slot adjustment he made midseason after watching Chris Sale pitch and lowering his release point to mimic him. He said it helped him get under his two-seamer so it would have even more life in the top of the zone. The whole package is extremely unique and he could repeat his performance wherever he decides to sign this offseason.
Peterson’s value can mostly be derived from an expectation that he will enter next season with a rotation spot still pitching in a good ballpark, with a good defense behind him, and supported by a good lineup. Volume is key and he’ll likely have it as long as he can be effective enough to warrant it. Just don’t expect another ERA that starts with a two.
Alvarez didn’t take the massive step forward many expected. He had moments this season where growth seemed obvious, then would go weeks on end without a competent at-bat as he oddly moved himself further from the plate to cover his hole up-and-in. Then, he fell victim to more pitches low-and-away. These feel like growing pains and it’s easy to forget he played the whole season at 22 years old. He’s played the 12th most games and is tied for the second most homeruns of any catcher in the Live Ball Era before turning 23. He’s a breakout candidate once again for these historical precedents alone.
Diaz should and will be viewed as a high-end closer once again. Many discounted what it took for him to come back from his torn patellar tendon he suffered during the World Baseball Classic and it took a good chunk of the season for him to quiet his mechanics. He didn’t cross the 100 MPH threshold until late in the summer and struggled to sustain that velocity after sitting at 99 MPH in his stellar 2022 season. Yet, he found more success as the season went on by trusting his fastball more. Just because he’s no longer the most electric pitcher on the planet doesn’t mean he isn’t a trustworthy option.
Key Free Agents
Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias, JD Martinez, José Quintana, Brooks Raley, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Drew Smith
Team Needs
The Mets need bodies. 10 players from their NLCS roster are free agents including almost their entire starting rotation. Senga should be back which helps. Manaea and Severino also each received the qualifying offer with Manaea expected to decline and Severino up in the air. They need to fill out their rotation and bullpen best they can to support Lindor, Vientos, Alvarez, and Nimmo.
Then, there’s the matter of Juan Soto and how that will impact Alonso. It seems like Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and all Mets fans have their sights deadset on Soto. And for the record, they should. He will be one of the most talented players to ever be available in our lives’ and the whole point of having the richest owner in baseball is to sign players like him.
Most teams can’t approach the offseason knowing they’re $142 million under the third luxury tax threshold and expecting to spend that much on the current roster. The Mets possibly can, which means they can add Soto to transform this lineup and still be involved with Alonso, high-end pitchers, and the other depth options this team needs to make another deep playoff run.
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