Parsing through the NBA’s over/under win totals is a meaningful way to establish expectations for every team entering the new season even if you have no interest in gambling. At this point, it would be easy to look back on the San Antonio Spurs and believe their ascent atop the Western Conference was all but preordained last season with Victor Wembanyama, but in reality expectations were pretty meager. The Spurs’ win total was only 44.5 games before they roared to 62 wins and a trip to the 2026 NBA Finals.
The sportsbooks are really good at setting these lines. I went 4-3 on NBA my over/under picks last season, but it ended up being 3-4 for the lines in my story because the New York Knicks’ win total was one game higher at time of publish. That’s how thin the margins often are.
This season is particularly difficult to project because of the NBA’s new anti-tanking rules. There were a lot of free wins on the schedule last year against teams trying to prioritize ping pong balls in the lottery. Teams can’t game the system anymore with the lottery odds now almost completely randomized, especially when the league’s three worst teams actually have worse odds at the No. 1 pick. With the 2026-2027 season just around the corner, here are my best bets for the NBA over/under win total lines. All lines are via FanDuel.
There’s finally some optimism around the Bulls with the arrival of a potential star rookie in Caleb Wilson and a new front office led by Bryson Graham. Graham signed Norm Powell, traded for Nic Claxton, and drafted Dailyn Swain with his second first-round pick, but there’s still a lot more work to be done. It’s hard to see many Eastern Conference teams worse than the Bulls this year. Chicago projects as a below-average team in rebuilding, three-point shooting volume, and defensive turnover creation, and that’s a tough way to win when you don’t have a true star player to fall back on. It’s likely that Powell is traded in Feb., and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few more veterans follow him out the door as Graham looks to put his stamp on the team. The Bulls could be fun-bad with Wilson and Matas Buzelis both among the league’s most explosive athletes, but this line still seems too high unless Wilson is an impact two-way player right away.
The Rockets won 52 games last year without Fred VanVleet for the whole season and without Steven Adams after January. Adams will be an injury risk every year, but he’s healthy to start this season, and that gives Houston its greatest strength back on the offensive glass. I’m buying improvement from both Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson this year, and even if that doesn’t happen, any of Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard could also take a leap. Kevin Durant will suffer age-related decline eventually, but he was pretty damn good last year and I wouldn’t expect him to fall off too much yet. The Rockets will turn every game into a rock fight. It won’t be pretty, but I do think it can be effective.
The Lakers won 53 games last year with Austin Reaves being limited to 51 appearances and Luka Doncic limited to 64. This year’s team won’t have LeBron James to fall back on when Doncic and/or Reaves are out, but they majorly upgraded the center position while fortifying the rotation with players who should be more effective in the regular season than the playoffs. Walker Kessler will be there to protect the rim every time Doncic and Reaves get burned, and it won’t be hard for him to be more effective than Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes were last year. Sandro Mamukelashvili was an excellent offensive weapon in Toronto last season, and I like his pairing with Luka whether he’s at the four or the five. Matisse Thybulle also feels like a good buy-low candidate whose shortcoming won’t be exposed until the playoffs. Even if Doncic plays a similar number of games to last year, I think the Lakers have the star-power and the coaching to clear this win total with relative ease.
The Grizzlies were shamelessly tanking to end last season, but it worked out wonderfully for them by moving up to the third pick to draft Cameron Boozer. I didn’t just call Boozer the best prospect in the draft, I also said he’ll be the next American-born player to win MVP! No pressure, man. Boozer will be the youngest player in the NBA this season, but I think he’s ready to rock from the jump. Zach Edey feels like the real swing factor in Grizzlies’ optimism. He’s consistently battled injuries during his short NBA career, but he’s super effective when he’s healthy and should be a great fit next to Boozer in the front court. I’m pretty high on Memphis’ collection of guards with Ty Jerome — one of the league’s most underrated players — leading the charge, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam Spencer makes a big leap this year too. Cedric Coward is another breakout candidate. Memphis is expected to be among the worst teams in the West this season, and while I get it, I think they’re going to be a lot better than that.
I was really high on the Warriors last year at this time, but they were basically dead-on-arrival after Jimmy Butler tore his ACL in January. Butler will spend the first part of this season continuing his rehab, and it’s hard to believe the Warriors will hit the ground running without him. Stephen Curry remains spectacular, but can the Warriors really count on him for a full season at age-38? Draymond Green is still awesome on defense, but his offense gets worse every year and pretty close to unplayable. Kristaps Porzingis is really good when he’s healthy, but he’s never healthy. I really like Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Brandin Podziemski, and I can talk myself into a De’Anthony Melton comeback. The Warriors could make me look stupid if Curry plays 70+ games — he’s done it two of the last three seasons — but this line is still a little too rich for my blood.
The Raptors turned Brandon Ingram into Kawhi Leonard this summer, and I’d bet that’s enough to win one more game than last year to clear this line. Leonard was a top-5 player in the league last year, and he’s a huge upgrade over Ingram if he can stay on the floor. Obviously that’s always a big if when it comes to Kawhi, but I’d like to think he has motivation to show fans he can still ball out after his reputation took a hit from the Clippers’ cap circumvention scandal. Scottie Barnes suddenly looks like one of the best second bananas in the league, Collin Murray-Boyles should be in for a sophomore leap, and the Raptors’ bench has an intriguing mix of defensive bulldogs (Jamal Shead) and floor spacers (Ja’Kobe Walter). I’m worried about the center and point guard play, but still think this team should be very good if Leonard can get to around the 65-game mark.
Wizards under 33.5 wins
Okay, I have the Wizards at under 35.5 wins at my local sportsbook, and I much prefer that line. I’m still willing to fade this team even after bringing in Anthony Davis and Trae Young. Davis could still be one of the better players in the NBA if he’s healthy and motivated, but I just don’t see how he’s happy in Washington even if this team meets their meager expectations. Young was very good a few years ago, but his margin for error was always slim given his lack of size, and it feels like he’s endured enough injuries to slip just enough athletically to cut his peak short. A.J. Dybantsa should be awesome as the No. 1 overall pick, but I’m skeptical of the fit between him and Young. I like all the young guys here, from Kyshawn George to Tre Johnson to Alex Sarr to Will Riley, but I’m not sure they’re ready to impact winning. I also can’t believe head coach Brian Keefe is back. The defense is probably going to be terrible barring a vintage AD season, and there’s not a lot of floor spacing on offense. I’ll pound the under on the Wizards wherever the line is.
Jazz to make playoffs (+120)
FanDuel has the Jazz over/under at 37.5 wins, and I think I like taking them to make the playoffs as the better bet because the odds are more favorable. It’s hard to imagine the Jazz can crack the top-6 of the West this year, which means they will have to make it in via the play-in tournament. That’s always a scary proposition, but I like Utah’s combination of top-end talent and coaching better than some of their rivals for the last two West playoff spots like the Suns, Blazers, and Warriors. This is a big bet on Will Hardy, but after years of tanking, he should be ready to show world that he’s one of the league’s best head coaches. I’m a bit worried about the lack of playmaking on this team, and they will need Jusuf Nurkic to stay healthy if they want to compete on the glass, but there’s a lot of offensive firepower here, and it should be enough to sneak into the playoffs.
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