Finding the right value on a Friday night slate is all about identifying trends and mismatches before the market catches up. For this February 6 lineup — the first Friday after the NBA Trade Deadline — I’ve put together a four-leg moneyline parlay that balances momentum with favorable matchups.
My NBA picks start at TD Garden, where the new-look Celtics clash with Heat and end in the Pacific Northwest, where the Blazers look to snap out of a six-game funk against the decimated Grizzlies.
This parlay has been BOOSTED from +332 to +383 by our friends at bet365.
NBA moneyline parlay for January 30
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Celtics
Celtics
Knicks
Knicks
Grizzlies
Timberwolves
Suns
Trail Blazers
+332 +383 at bet365
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
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TV: NBA League Pass, FDSN SU, NBCSB
There’s only a small edge on the Celtics here, as I price them closer to a -275 favorite over the Heat, but it’s still an edge worth attacking with the market offering -240. Jaylen Brown has been cleared to play, and Nikola Vucevic is set to make his Celtics debut.
Vucevic’s presence only amplifies a key matchup advantage Boston already holds: the ability to pull Bam Adebayo away from the rim and neutralize his impact as an elite roaming help defender. The Celtics’ five-out “Mazzulla Ball” offense already stresses Miami’s defensive structure, but inserting Vucevic at the five makes those coverages even harder to execute and exposes the Heat further on the back line.
New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons
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Location: Little Caesars Arena
The New York Knicks are trading as -115 favorites on the moneyline for Friday’s matchup between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, and at that price, I’m backing the Knicks. I believe they should be closer to a -130 favorite.
There’s a lot to monitor on the injury report, with multiple players carrying questionable tags on both sides. The most concerning status is Jalen Duren, who exited Thursday’s game against the Wizards and did not return for the second half. He feels much closer to doubtful than questionable.
Karl-Anthony Towns is also listed as questionable with an eye laceration, but he returned after the injury in his last game and shot the ball well. With the Pistons playing on the second night of a back-to-back and Duren’s availability very much in doubt, give me the Knicks on the moneyline.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves
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TV: NBA League Pass, GCSEN, FDSN NO
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Pick: Timberwolves (-425)
The Minnesota Timberwolves took a big swing at the trade deadline by pursuing Giannis Antetokounmpo, but ultimately came up empty-handed. It’s fair to wonder whether all the trade rumors impacted team chemistry, especially for a group that has been together for a while.
The bigger question, though, is whether the New Orleans Pelicans are capable of taking advantage of any lingering distraction or negative energy. The answer is no. New Orleans doesn’t even control its own first-round pick, is actively trying to win games, and still hasn’t shown the ability to do so consistently.
On the court, this matchup heavily favors Minnesota. Rudy Gobert should have no issues containing rookie center Derik Queen, while Jaden McDaniels’ length and defensive versatility are a nightmare for Trey Murphy’s perimeter-oriented game. All signs point to the Timberwolves handling this one comfortably.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers
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TV: NBA League Pass, FDSN SE-MEM, KUNP
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Pick: Trail Blazers (-300)
The Portland Trail Blazers won’t wow you with expected value while sitting as a -300 favorite against the Memphis Grizzlies, but this is a spot where the market still may not be fully accounting for what Memphis has become.
The Grizzlies moved Jaren Jackson Jr. at the trade deadline and explored a trade market for Ja Morant, only to find none. Now armed with significant draft capital, it’s clear this franchise has shifted its focus away from winning games in the second half of the season. That reality is already starting to show up in their rotations and injury reports.
Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are pushing for a playoff spot and have every incentive to take care of business in games like this.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
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