It’s nearing the end of the regular season and a few NBA awards are heating up like Defensive Player of the Year as Draymond Green, Evan Mobley, and Dyson Daniels battle it out in a three-player race.
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Mobley (+130)
Draymond Green surpassed Evan Mobley as the favorite for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, but I am not buying it.
There are multiple layers to why Green has surpassed Mobley, such as the Cavaliers’ recent four-game losing streak that factored into the Thunder leapfrogging Cleveland for the NBA’s best record, while the Warriors have gone 18-5 since acquiring Jimmy Butler, ranking second in defensive net rating during that span.
That acquisition of Butler is very important for this race. Before the trade, the Warriors were 25-26, and not one single person said Green should be the defensive player of the year or that he was in second place behind Victor Wembanyama before his injury. Since the trade, Golden State is 18-5 and in the sixth and final playoff spot — avoiding the play-in.
Now, a lot of experts, and Green himself, are pushing this narrative that he should win his second DPOY. I don’t think his self-campaign is enough and the Warriors’ late resurgence makes him deserving. Butler is a much larger reason why Golden State is better defensively and winning games. Not Green, who was there for the 25-26 first-half run of the season and barely cracked the top 10-12 in defensive net rating.
Mobley leads over Green in defensive win shares (3.4 vs 3.0), net rating (108.3 vs 108.9), defensive rebounding percentage (24.3% vs 19.1%), block percentage (4.8%), blocks (106 vs 63) and team success (60-15 vs 43-31). Green does lead Mobley in steals (87 vs 53) and fouls (191 vs 129), while having one of his lowest usage rates in years (15.7%) compared to the opposite for Mobley (22.6%).
All glitter ain’t gold and I think Green’s DPOY campaign has a lot of glitter. Give me Mobley between +110 and +130 odds to win his first award.
Pick: Evan Mobley to win Defensive Player of the Year (1u)
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