The NBA Cup semifinals take place Saturday in Las Vegas.
The remaining four teams are the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks from the Eastern Conference, and the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs from the Western Conference. With just three international games during the NBA regular season, these Cup games present a rare opportunity to watch, price and bet neutral court NBA games.
One coincidence is the Magic are set to participate in the Berlin and London games in January, and now also take the stage in Vegas. An NBA home-court advantage is usually worth about 3 points against the spread, so in trying to best anticipate the price to bet on these games, that factor is removed. Let’s review the semifinals through the lens of betting the spread, game total and player props in each.
All lines via BetMGM.
Jalen Brunson has the favored Knicks pointing up. (AP Photo/John Munson)
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Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks (-4.5, 223.5)
When pricing sides and totals in NBA games, I rely on market ratings and a personal model. Then when placing a bet, I factor in the early market direction and line movement. I find the spots to be strongest when all three align. This means the line is moving toward the market ratings and model number, and hopefully I still have some wiggle room where the price has not met its match.
The consensus price right now is Knicks -4.5 (-105) after a Knicks -3.5 (-115) open. This shows us the line movement toward New York. The market rating is Knicks -5, and my model prices this at Knicks -4.8. We are heading toward a sharp number, but this remains a Knicks-or-nothing spot for me.
The last component is to compare the moneyline available to bet vs. the price of the spread. Using a spread-to-moneyline converter for NBA games, a -4.5 (-105) spread line should have a moneyline range between -170 and -185. Given that we are operating on the lower side of the range, I actually prefer the moneyline play here. When lines reach consensus, sometimes the best edge is getting a few cents ahead on the moneyline. This is often an approach I use during the playoffs, when the line movement happens within ranges of moneylines on sharp spread numbers. Given this game has been priced since Tuesday night, we are at that point in the market cycle.
For basketball reasons, I also like the Knicks here. They have premier defenders to throw at Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero. I would expect OG Anunoby on Banchero, and a combination of Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges on Bane. The Knicks can hide Jalen Brunson on Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. is not an offensive engine to attack Karl-Anthony Towns. On the other end, Brunson is nearly matchup proof and can produce against Jalen Suggs, and the rest of the matchups favor the Knicks because of their size.
Bet: Knicks ML -175 (1 unit)
While there has not been a line move on the total since the price opened at BetMGM, we know from other places in the market the line was 224.5 and has come down. Both of these teams’ quarterfinals games in the NBA Cup took massive steam toward the under and still went under the closing number.
However, I price this game higher, and it is hard to factor in both the neutral court setting and the Cup atmosphere. This is only the third year of the Cup, and we need more data before drawing any conclusions on the total. Both the Western Conference games in the quarterfinals went over the closing total. This leads me to think it is more matchup dependent as opposed to spot dependent.
The Knicks have prioritized pace and movement on offense a lot more than previous seasons. And this year the Magic defense has faltered compared to previous seasons with head coach Jamahl Mosley. With the market looking under, but my price and read of the teams being an over, this is a simple skip for me. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.
Total: No Bet
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5, 225.5)
After a few weeks off dealing with a calf strain, the Spurs franchise player and superstar big man makes his return in Las Vegas against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder line against the spread has not really budged; there was a quick move down to Spurs +9 that has been hit back the other way, and it is once again a double digit spread across the board.
The best way to play this is by targeting 3-point props on the Oklahoma City side. Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are all strong looks for me. Jalen Williams’ minutes are as steady as they come, while Wallace and Caruso minutes can fluctuate based on the matchup — but here are set up well to try and stop the perimeter attack of San Antonio, which is guard heavy with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper.
Caruso’s prop is only over 0.5 3 pointers made, priced at -175. Williams and Wallace are down to about +110 on Ov 1.5 makes, after early in the week being around +150. This shows the concept of attacking the 3-point line when Wembanyama plays is a sharp angle.
Right now, my preference and order of operations in choosing these bets is Caruso first, Williams second and Wallace third. I don’t recommend parlaying them, and when the juice is -175 there is no need to risk more to win one unit.
Feel free to risk one unit and bring back slightly more than half a unit. Good bettors look to place a volume of good wagers at good prices.
Bet: Alex Caruso Ov 0.5 3PM (-175), Jalen Williams Ov 1.5 3PM (+110)
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