That figures to be the theme throughout what should be a tightly bunched Major League Baseball season, and USA TODAY Sports’ projected win totals for 2026 reflect as much.
Our five-person panel’s aggregate rankings suggest it will be another late September of scoreboard-watching, tiebreaker-computation, gut-wrenching baseball as the season enters its final stretch.
Except, perhaps, for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
They’re projected to win the National League West by eight games, though that will guarantee them little once October comes around and they seek a third consecutive World Series crown. And they’re projected to win “just” 98 games, the panel pegging them for anywhere from 93 to 104 wins.
But that’s why they play the games, right? A look at our panel’s aggregate record projections as spring training gets underway:
The USA TODAY Sports’ aggregate record projections for the 2026 MLB season as spring training gets underway.
AL East
Here comes another coin toss between the Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) and New York Yankees (90-72). The biggest question in this loaded division: How much will the Blue Jays miss Bo Bichette? … The odds favor the Baltimore Orioles (85-77) returning to the playoffs, even if they may be one starter short, but flush with a Polar Bear. … Did the Boston Red Sox (84-78) throw enough into the pot as the price of poker keeps going up in this division? The pitching is as admirably deep as the lineup is questionable. … The Tampa Bay Rays (76-86) rearranged an awful lot (Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins and Nick Martinez are in, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Shane Baz out) and are projected to backslide by one whole game.
AL Central
The surprise Framber Valdez signing likely iced the division for the Detroit Tigers (90-72), though a very streaky offensive group returns intact for a club that blew a 14-game division lead. … Could the Cleveland Guardians (83-79) capitalize on a similar swoon this year? Most of their division-winning group is back, though they’ll be counting on rookie Chase DeLauter to stay healthy and contribute. … A healthy Cole Ragans will go a long way toward the Kansas City Royals (83-79) getting back in contention, but they’ll need behemoth slugger Jac Caglianone to stick and ensure the lineup extends more than four deep. … Can the Chicago White Sox (67-95) avoid 100 losses for the first time since 2022? Many eyes will be on them if only to see whether Munetaka Murakami will be worth far more than the $34 million required to sign him. … Hard to believe the Minnesota Twins (65-97) could supplant the White Sox in the cellar with Joe Ryan and Pablo López still around. Then again, maybe they won’t be in July.
AL West
Acquiring Brendan Donovan filled the last significant hole on the roster and established the Seattle Mariners (92-70) as AL favorites, one year after they fell eight outs shy of their first World Series. … The Texas Rangers (86-76) moved the furniture around quite a bit and burned some prospect capital to reel in MacKenzie Gore, who, should he find elusive consistency, may form a dominant 1-2-3 behind Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom. … Are the Houston Astros (84-78) settled for the spring, even as they’re infield-deep and outfield-thin? Regardless, the Tatsuya Imai-for-Framber Valdez swap may determine their fate. … The Athletics (76-86) return for their second of three seasons in Yolo County with half their lineup (Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler) locked into long-term deals. Pitching, though, may not enable them to take the next step. … A third consecutive last-place finish is projected for the Los Angeles Angels (72-90), who are nonetheless projected to have nine players between the ages of 33 and 39 on the active roster.
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$765,000,000: Juan Soto, New York Mets (2025-39)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$765,000,000: Juan Soto, New York Mets (2025-39)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$700,000,000: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (2024-33)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$500,000,000: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (2026-39)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$426.5 million: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (2019-2030)* includes extension
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$365 million: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (2020-32)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$360 million: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (2023-2031)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$350 million: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (2023-33)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$341 million: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (2022-31)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$340 million: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (2021-34)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$330,000,000: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (2019-31)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$325 million: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (2015-2027) – traded to New York Yankees in 2017
$210 million: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (2015-2021)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$209.3 million: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners (2023-34)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$206.5 million: Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (2016-2021) – traded to Houston Astros in 2019
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$202,000,000: CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (2009-17)
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MLB’s $200+ million contracts
$200 million: Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins (2023-28) – traded to Houston Astros in 2025
NL East
Since when did the annual playoff runs for the Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) go from a joyous exercise to a Sisyphean slog? Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto are back along with the rest of the gang (though soon minus Nick Castellanos). One of these years, it will click. … Your January probably wasn’t as productive as David Stearns’s, and for that reason the New York Mets (87-75) are once again World Series contenders. So long as they stay healthy, watching Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Bo Bichette align at the top of the lineup will be a treat. … Are the Atlanta Braves (84-78) perpetually gone for good from the elite and in perpetual hope-for-the-best mode come October? GM Alex Anthopoulos generally doesn’t get stuck in the middle, but they’re light on starting pitching and will be missing shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for a minute. … What does a next step look like for the Miami Marlins (79-83)? One of baseball’s best teams since late June didn’t significantly augment, unless hitting prospect Owen Caissie is ready to rake from the jump. … It could get pretty bad for the Washington Nationals (62-100), who are rightfully rebuilding (again), traded MacKenzie Gore and added virtually nothing externally.
NL Central
If Alex Bregman can’t get the Chicago Cubs (88-74) over The Brewers Hump, nothing likely can. The Cubs haven’t won the Central in a full season since 2017 and Bregman has never missed the playoffs in his 10 full seasons. … Of course, the Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) did their part to come back to the pack, dealing ace Freddy Peralta and spinning off reliever Tobias Myers, infielder Caleb Durbin and outfielder Isaac Collins. Yet it always seems to work out, doesn’t it? … The Cincinnati Reds (83-79) ducked into the postseason field on the final day of the season and we’ve got ‘em right on the bubble again. Will the good vibes only that Eugenio Suárez provides be enough in an otherwise still offseason? … It was a winter of relative aggression and even a little success for the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88), who added some sentient bats at reasonable prices. Enough to click with an increasingly nasty pitching staff? We’ll see. … They stripped the roster as promised, but how ugly will it get for the St. Louis Cardinals (68-94)? There will be rays of light as young players get their cracks, with infielder JJ Wetherholt the most anticipated arrival.
NL West
What does $550 million in payroll and penalties buy you these days? The Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) hope it at least ensures a 13th division title in 14 years. Have they mastered the art of getting their pitchers fresh and safe to October? We’ll see. … The San Diego Padres (85-77) remain active even if the salary bacchanalia from a few years ago has ended. If Michael King stays healthy all year they are a threat. … Will Tony Vitello be the shock paddle that jolts the San Francisco Giants away from their addiction to the .500 mark? Probably not. … In coming weeks, Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82) corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana will turn 35 and 40, respectively. They’ll need some gulps from the fountain of youth to ensure the bottom of the lineup isn’t an arid wasteland. … We won’t yet call it a plan, but the Colorado Rockies (57-105) do have the semblance of a plan with brand new upper management. Yet even purposeful lab experiments might look ugly in the win-loss column.
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New York Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran hits a double in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on July 6, 2011. Carlos Beltr‡n was an exceptional switch-hitting center fielder who played 20 seasons in Major League Baseball, known for his rare combination of power, speed, and defense.
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New York Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran hits a double in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on July 6, 2011. Carlos Beltr‡n was an exceptional switch-hitting center fielder who played 20 seasons in Major League Baseball, known for his rare combination of power, speed, and defense.
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New York Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran in action against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Minute Maid Park in 2010. Beltran amassed 2,725 hits, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs, and 312 stolen bases across seven different teams.
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Carlos Beltran of the Kansas Royals signs a fans program before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Comiskey Park in Chicago on July 8, 1999. Beltran began his career with the Royals in 1999.
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Houston Astros players Yuli Gurriel (10) , Carlos Beltran (15) and George Springer (4) celebrate after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium. Beltran won his only World Series with the Astos.
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Carlos Beltran celebrates after hitting a home run against the Atlanta Braves in Game 5 of the 2004 NLDS.
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Carlos Beltran H celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the top of the ninth inning in Game 3 of the 2004 NLCS.
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New York Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran gets ready to hit during the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 10, 2006. Beltran joined the Mets in 2005.
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St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (3) poses with his National League All Star Game jersey before a game against the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium on July 6, 2012. Beltran was an All Star nine times.
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St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (back) steals second base against San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro (front) during the first inning of Game 7 of the 2012 NLCS at AT&T Park on October. 22, 2012. Beltran finished his career with 312 stolen bases.
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St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran hits a single, one of 2,725 hits, against the Chicago Cubs during the third inning at Wrigley Field on July 12, 2013.
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Carlos Beltran heads for first after he hit his 400th career home run in the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium on May 15, 2016 in the Bronx. Beltran would end his career with 435 home runs.
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Know for power hitting and great defense, Andruw Jones best years were with the Atlanta Braves from 1996-2007.
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Atlanta Braves player Andruw Jones watches his second home run fly out of the park in the third inning of Game One of the World Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York 20 October. Jones, the youngest player to hit a home run in the World Series, had two home runs in his first two at bats. Jones was the youngest player to hit home run in postseason at age 19.
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Andruw Jones of the Atlanta Braves looks on during a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver, Colo. on Sept. 12, 1996. Andruw Jones played 17 seasons, primarily with the Atlanta Braves, from his debut in 1996 until his last MLB game in 2012, also playing for the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees, before finishing his career in Japan in 2013.
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Atlanta Braves outfielder Andruw Jones makes a diving catch during the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs at Turner Field in Atlanta, Ga in 2007. Andruw Jones won the Gold Glove Award 10 times, all consecutively from 1998 to 2007
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Andruw Jones of the Atlanta Braves follows through on a first inning three-run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field on April 23, 2005 in Atlanta, Georgia. Jones had 51 home runs in 2005.
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National League All-Star outfielder Andruw Jones of the Atlanta Braves watches practice for the 77th MLB All-Star Game against the American League All-Stars at PNC Park on July 11, 2006 in Pittsburgh, Pa. Andruw Jones was an MLB All-Star five times, selected in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006
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Andruw Jones #25 is greeted by A.J. Pierzynski #12 and Mark Kotsay #7 of the Chicago White Sox at home plate after hitting Jones hit his 400th career home run in 2010.
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Andruw Jones hits a home run during the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on July 7, 2012. Jones was with the Yankees for two years hitting 27 home runs.
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Atlanta Braves Chipper Jones (R) and Andruw Jones (L) celebrate after both players scored on a double by Andres Gallaraga against the New York Mets in the top of the seventh inning Sept. 26, 2000 at Shea Stadium in Flushing, NY. Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones are legendary former teammates for the Atlanta Braves, known for their dominant partnership in the late 1990s and 2000s, forming the core of the team alongside Greg Maddux and John Smoltz as they won numerous division titles and appeared in the World Series.
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Center fielder Andruw Jones #25 of the Atlanta Braves makes a catch against the wall despite colliding with right fielder J.D. Drew #7 on a fly ball hit by Jayson Werth of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning at Dodger Stadium on August 21, 2004 in Los Angeles, Calif. Jones was known for his great defense and won 10 Gold Gloves.
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Hall of Fame inductee Jeff Kent poses for a picture along with Hall of Fame President Josh Rawitch and Chairman of the Board Jane Forbes Clark during the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings on Dec. 8, 2025 in Orlando.
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Jeff Kent of the Toronto Blue Jays watches the ball at the Toronto Skydome in Toronto, Canada on January 1, 1992. Kent began his 17 seasons in the MLB with the Blue Jays in 1992.
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Los Angeles Dodgers pinch hitter Jeff Kent bats during 12-4 victory over the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on Sept. 24, 2008. Kent retire from baseball in 2009.
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San Francisco Giant Jeff Kent watches his two-run home run head for the fence as Anaheim Angels catcher Bengie Molina and home plate umpire Mike Reilly watch in the sixth inning in Game Five in the World Series in San Francisco on Oct. 24, 2002. Jeff Kent was a four-time Silver Slugger Award winner (2000-2002, 2005) .
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Winner of the 2000 National League’s Most Valuable Player San Francisco Giants second baseman Jeff Kent is shown in this Oct. 4, 2000, file photo playing a ground ball against the New York Mets in San Francisco. Kent became the first second baseman in 16 years to capture baseball’s most coveted award presented by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
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San Francisco Giant Jeff Kent pumps his fist after hitting a two-run home run against the Anaheim Angels in the sixth inning in Game 5 of the 2002 World Series.
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Jeff Kent of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a two run home run in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in during the Opening Day game at Dodger Stadium on March 31, 2008 in Los Angeles, Calif. Kent ended his career with 377 home runs, the MLB record for a second baseman.
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Second baseman Jeff Kent of the San Francisco Giants dives as he throws the ball during game three of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves at Pac Bell Park in San Francisco, California on Oct. 5, 2002. Kent played in 2,298 games over 17 seasons.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB wins totals predictions, projections for 2026 season
