MLB Spring Training Picks and Predictions for March 19: The Bello of the Ballpark

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Spring training is a chaotic endeavor, particularly when betting. There are fewer markets available, and picking a moneyline winner can be stressful, especially when a team throws out a less-than-stellar bullpen to throw the whole wager in the bin.

I’m looking at a variety of moneyline MLB picks for my spring training predictions today, highlighting a favorite, a slight underdog, and a bit of a long shot on Thursday, March 19.

Spring Training predictions for March 19

Pick #1: Red Sox moneyline

With the exception of Roman Anthony not being in the lineup, the Boston Red Sox batting order looks close to what the Opening Day edition will be.

Like Anthony, Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton won’t be in the starting nine in the wake of the World Baseball Classic. They mostly cancel each other out, leaving Boston as the better offense from top to bottom.

Twins starter Mick Abel has been sharp this spring (1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP), and may seem the better choice over Brayan Bello (9.72 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), but the Red Sox righty has been a bit unlucky, as evidenced by an unsustainable .440 BABIP and his 3.55 FIP. He also allowed just one run and one hit in five innings at the WBC.

I want a better number than +120 on Minnesota if I’m taking the underdog here.

Pick #2: Astros moneyline

If Juan Soto isn’t back in the New York Mets lineup tonight, then I’ll feel even better about this.

Kodai Senga is an electric starter, but his struggles to stay on the field have limited him over the last calendar year. He’s also thrown just 5 2/3 innings this spring, so New York is slow-playing the right-hander. He may not be in this game very long.

I’ll take the plus money on the Houston Astros. This line may even tighten up if Soto doesn’t play, so it’s worth a sprinkle now.

Pick #3: Rockies moneyline

The Colorado Rockies are the long shots of the day. It makes sense. San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb is excellent. However, he also traditionally pitches to contact, and is prone to giving up runs in bunches when his defense can’t make the plays behind him.

This also isn’t at Coors Field, so I’m less concerned about Tomoyuki Sagano getting lit up by San Francisco’s suspect lineup.

I like the value on +150 more than anything else here, but I’m also encouraged by several of Colorado’s young hitters.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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