Team who will most be missed from the playoffs
The Mariners. The only active MLB team to have never appeared in a World Series came within a single win of ending that hoodoo last October and appeared poised to go one stage further in 2026. Instead, their 76-86 clunker feels like a wasted chance for a lineup featuring Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. BAG
The Pirates could have brought real verve to the postseason with a healthy Konnor Griffin at shortstop and Paul Skenes on the mound. Sadly the team dug too deep a hole in August and, in usual Pirate fashion, didn’t give themselves a chance. AK
That has to be the Orioles, which means Pete Alonso’s F-David Stearns tour won’t see the bright lights of the postseason. The Mets’ president of baseball operations, one with almost all the money in the world at his disposal, who didn’t offer a contract to Alonso – who hit 43 home runs, arguably the second-best season of his career – is finally off the hook. That is, at least until a would-be 2027 season. Too bad. DL
High seed at risk of going out early
The American League’s No 2 seed is an 85-win division champion with a plus-11 run differential who FanGraphs suggests was closer to a .500 ball club. The Guardians have the pitching to thrive in close games, but a lineup without a 20-homer batter leaves them little room for error. BAG
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The Dodgers are finally going to face the consequences that come with age, variance, and having had to play an extra 31 games over the prior two postseasons. They still have no big weaknesses, but their lineup is old (the average age on their roster is 31, making them the oldest team in MLB) and has occasionally looked the part this year. AK
If you needed a team to squeak out a single run under pressure against great playoff pitching, that’s not the Yankees with Aaron Judge in the lineup. Without him, against some superb Red Sox hurlers, the swing-and-a-miss Bronx Bombers have even less of a chance of putting runs on the board. They could find themselves bronzing in Cancún sooner rather than later. DL
Dark horse to win
It seems odd to call a team with baseball’s best offense and defense a dark horse, but the Cubs‘ leaky relief pitching makes them one. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman give Chicago plenty of ways to win games. If the bullpen can keep the ball in the park, they could go far. BAG
The Rays will always have a dark-horse feel, even in a year when they win the AL East. Pitching could be the difference here: whether injured starter Shane McClanahan returns at some point or not, the deadline acquisition of Freddy Peralta from the Mets ensures rotation depth that will serve this club well. AK
How can a team with 98 wins be a dark horse? When they don’t hit for power, get on base less than the Rockies, and their ability to score is a little better than middle of the road. They play in a condom-covered dump in front of some of the leanest crowds in the league. An inspiring, title-like set up? Nope, and the Rays are dark horses because few fans know they even exist. Pragmatic as they come though; they can pitch and Kevin Cash can manage. The AL can’t handle them, and the Dodgers are vulnerable. DL
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Player to watch …
Tarik Skubal arrives in October as the centerpiece of baseball’s most formidable rotation, with a potential record-setting free agency ahead. Every start will be judged against the imposing price the Dodgers paid to acquire him in their bid for a rare third straight title. BAG
Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson is a throwback, a defense, speed and batting average-heavy corner outfielder who’s made a place for himself despite lacking the power that makes most great modern hitters. In a lineup with a lot of thump, Simpson’s slap hitting offers a bit of variety. AK
Sticking to my Rays theme, it’s Junior Caminero. The Dominican gets no recognition, or at least not enough, despite crushing close to 90 home runs in two years, while also hitting for average. He’s making strides every season and he’s only 23. At some point the third baseman is going to be very expensive, so who knows how long he’ll remain on the Gulf. At the moment, he’s the straw that stirs Tampa’s tipple, and now Caminero has the spotlight. DL
Most important factor this postseason/offseason
The labor talks. The collective bargaining agreement expires on 1 December and MLB’s salary-cap proposal remains at odds with the players’ intractable position. A lockout could freeze the hot-stove market while a prolonged dispute could torpedo the 2027 season entirely. Whatever happens on the field, the most important baseball story after the Fall Classic will unfold across a bargaining table. BAG
The lack of great teams in the American League. The Rays may be a great team, but is anyone else in the Junior Circuit? MLB’s three best teams – the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves – are all in the NL, and I’d probably prefer the Cubs over any team in the AL at the moment, too. The AL has a true “anyone’s ballgame” feel. You could imagine this league producing a truly weird pennant winner. AK
The postseason CBA negotiations may not bring us world peace, but hopefully they will create a new rule that bans teams with .500 records or worse from winning a division, or reaching the playoffs via a wildcard spot. The team with the best above-.500 record not to qualify for the playoffs, regardless of league, will replace that team, and the sub-.500 bums will not be allowed to complain AT ALL. And God forbid the Astros win the 2026 World Series, I will pull whatever is left of my hair out. Who’s with me? DL
NLCS
Dodgers over Brewers. BAG
Brewers over Dodgers. AK
Brewers over Dodgers. DL
ALCS
Rays over White Sox. BAG
Rays over White Sox. AK
Rays over Guardians. DL
Your World Series winners will be …
The Rays will put the ball in play, run the basepaths aggressively and make the Dodgers earn their outs. But a rotation of Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow gives the Dodgers four starters capable of shutting down the Rays’ contact-heavy lineup, while the incandescent Shohei Ohtani supplies the power capable of turning any close game with one swing of the bat. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay may grade out better analytically, but the smell test clearly favors the Dodgers to become only the third franchise to win three consecutive World Series crowns. BAG
The Brewers will finally get the right October mixture this year. They have the same deep lineup as usual, with no real stars but also no weaknesses. Jacob Misiorowski gives them a rotation trump card that they haven’t had since CC Sabathia’s brief run in Milwaukee after the 2008 trade deadline. And they have the necessary high-leverage relievers (Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby) to feel good about any game that’s still competitive after six innings. AK
In many ways the Brewers and Rays are mirror images of each other, especially when it comes to their contract-based approaches to baseball. They are also similar in the way that absolutely nobody except their fans wants to see such a matchup. The Brewers have the overwhelming ace in Misiorowski, but the Rays have more pitching depth. They’re also due to win, with the owners detesting this matchup which proves lower payroll teams can win it all. And at precisely the wrong time. DL
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