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The real Opening Day is here and so too are MLB player props.
With 11 games on the diamond and countless markets for pitchers and hitters there’s no reason we can’t open the season by driving in some winners.
My favorites for today include strikeout props for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Logan Gilbert. Those and more MLB picks for Thursday, March 26, below.
Best MLB player props today
|
Player |
Pick |
Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Junior Caminero |
Over 0.5 RBIs |
+115 |
|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
Over 5.5 strikeouts |
-136 |
|
Logan Gilbert |
Over 6.5 strikeouts |
+102 |
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 RBIs (+115)
Junior Caminero is coming off a breakout campaign with the Tampa Bay Rays, where he swatted a massive 45 home runs with 110 RBIs, and I like him to carry that production into an Opening Day matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals.
The raw numbers for Caminero were great, but the underlying statistics say it was no fluke. The Rays’ third baseman ranked in the 91st percentile or better in expected slugging, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. Simply put, he hits the ball hard and often.
He gets a great matchup against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore. For starters, Caminero has the splits advantage with Liberatore being a lefty.
Liberatore is also coming off a tough season, ranked in the Bottom 15% in both expected ERA and opponent expected batting average. The issue for Liberatore is that he gives up a lot of hard contact, and doesn’t have much swing and miss stuff.
Caminero also had a great performance in the World Baseball Classic, and I love the price for him to drive in a run.
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Where to watch: Rays.TV, Cardinals.TV
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts (-136)
The last time we saw Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, he was having an all-time performance in the World Series.
Now, he gets the ball for the Dodgers on Opening Day against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.
But it wasn’t just the postseason where Yamamoto was showing his dominance. He ended the regular season in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. That strikeout rate was above 30% over his last 14 starts of the season.
He also dominated this D-backs lineup last season. Current Arizona players have combined for a 32.1% K-rate against Yamamoto, with strikeout totals of 4, 9, 10, and 7 in four games.
Yamamoto also topped this number in 12 consecutive games to end the season, and we know his arm is nice worked out thanks to the World Baseball Classic.
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts (+102)
The Seattle Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball, and it’s Logan Gilbert who gets the ball on Opening Day in a matchup against the Cleveland Guardians.
Gilbert is coming off his first All-Star selection in 2025, ranking in the 85th percentile in both expected ERA and opponent expected batting average. But it’s the strikeout numbers that are really impressive.
The 6-foot-6 starter struck out 32.4% of the batters he faced last season, which ranked in the 94th percentile.
The Guardians were a middle-of-the-pack team when it came to getting punched out by right-handers, ranking 15th in K-rate and return a nearly identical lineup to last season.
I’ll take a shot on Gilbert to top his strikeout prop on Opening Day at plus money.
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Where to watch: CleGuardians.TV, Mariners.TV
2026 Transparency record
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Prop picks: 1-1, +0.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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