If MLB’s playoffs started today, the Cincinnati Reds would be in, and the New York Mets would be out.
The Reds and Mets both have an 80-76 record with six games to play; the only thing currently separating the two teams in the race for the National League’s final wild card spot is Cincinnati’s head-to-head tiebreaker. But their place in a ranking of baseball payrolls is a different matter altogether.
The Mets spent the second most on players this year—their $341 million salary ledger trails only the Dodgers’ $350 million mark. The Reds, meanwhile, are 22nd in player spending at $119 million, according to Spotrac. New York’s Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto make more between them than every active Cincy player combined. The $222 differential between the rosters would itself be the eighth biggest tab in MLB.
A similar battle is playing out in the American League. The Cleveland Guardians would be the lowest-paid team in the playoffs, with a $101 million roster, if they can hold off the Houston Astros, who are spending $233 million this year, the sixth most in MLB. The Guardians and Astros are tied at 84-72 entering Tuesday. Both clubs are also only a game behind the Boston Red Sox, who rank 12th with a $200 million payroll. The Sox number jumps to $245 million when including their luxury tax obligations.
In June, the Mets boasted MLB’s best record, but New York has lost 11 of its last 15 games—and control of its playoff destiny. Their slide has also kept the Arizona Diamondbacks alive. The Diamondbacks are one game back, though FanGraphs only gives the team a 6% chance of playing in October.
Playoffs can be lucrative; Dodgers participants earned close to $500,000 each during their 2024 World Series run. That cash would be particularly meaningful for the 12 active Reds competitors getting less than $1 million in salary this season.
The dueling wild card races are playing out amid increased chatter about the potential of a salary cap coming to MLB after the current collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of 2026. A cap was a key sticking point in the negotiations that ultimately led to the cancellation of the 1994 World Series.
Mets struggles could help cool the clamor for a cap, especially with the Dodgers not currently looking like a juggernaut, either. LA currently has just a 1.8% chance to claim a bye, according to FanGraphs’ projections. At present, six of the top 10 highest-spending teams are slated for postseason appearances, with the Texas Rangers (seventh in payroll) and Braves (eighth) also on the outside looking in.
“How do we compete?” one midsized-market team president told ESPN recently. “We try to do everything right. We draft well. We develop well. And then we get the s— kicked out of us by clubs that buy their players.”
One answer? Look to Ohio.
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