With the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings set to begin in Dallas, the Mets still have plenty of work to do.
Aside from the signings of Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, who will join Kodai Senga and David Peterson as two of five or six members of the 2025 starting rotation, the Mets — like pretty much every team — haven’t done much of substance in what has been another slow-moving offseason.
A lot of that has to do with Juan Soto, who remains on the market and whose decision should open the floodgates when it comes to other free agents signing.
Soto is obviously at the top of the Mets’ checklist, but there’s a lot more to be done.
Here’s what David Stearns and the Mets have on their plate as they build what is expected to be a serious World Series contender…
Get a Juan Soto resolution
The Soto sweepstakes are winding down, and while there are technically five teams still in the mix, this feels like a three-team race.
It hasn’t been reported that the Dodgers are out, but they have seemingly been on the periphery. They can do anything they want. Sign Soto. Sign Corbin Burnes. Sign Pete Alonso and make him the DH. But just because they can doesn’t mean they will. And it feels highly unlikely Soto will be a Dodger.
As far as the Blue Jays, SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier this week that while Toronto is expected to bid high for Soto, the Jays are viewed as a “less likely landing spot.”
The Red Sox have a ton going for them, including one of the best farm systems in baseball, a strong core, and a rich history of players from the Dominican Republic — including David Ortiz, who has been recruiting Soto.
The Yankees are the Yankees, and have the wherewithal to spend a ton on Soto. But Hal Steinbrenner has said multiple times lately that maintaining $300 million-plus payrolls year over year is unsustainable. So it seems one of two things have to be true. The Yanks will either change their philosophy when it comes to team-building, or hope Soto leaves money on the table to return to a team that might have a hard time building a strong roster around him.
Then there’s the Mets, who have the ability to easily outbid the field for Soto — by a lot if Steve Cohen chooses. They also have a great case beyond the money, including a very strong core, a rising farm system, and stability at manager and atop the front office. It can also be argued that aside from the Dodgers, the Mets are in the best position of any other team to be a perennial World Series contender for the duration of Soto’s contract.
Figure out the first base situation
With Pete Alonso‘s future uncertain, so is the Mets’ situation at first base.
Alonso is coming off two relatively down years and about to enter his age-30 season, and it’s hard to see the bidding for him getting too insane. Perhaps he’ll wind up with a five-year deal for between $125 million and $150 million.
If the above is where the Alonso bidding ends up, it makes all the sense in the world for the Mets to bring him back. If it goes beyond that, the Mets could be inclined to move on.
And if New York does move on, they can go internal or external.
The internal possibility is Mark Vientos, who played four games at first base last season and 10 games there in 2023. If Vientos shifted to first base, the Mets would conceivably sign a free agent for third base (Alex Bregman is among the best fits on the free agent market).
If the Mets go external at first base, free agent Christian Walker could make the most sense. Walker has been a well above average hitter the last three seasons, and has won three Gold Gloves in a row.
Rebuild the rotation
Following the signings of Montas and Holmes, the Mets still need to make one or two more legitimate external starting pitching additions — and it can be argued that one of them should have ace potential.
It doesn’t seem like the Mets will be making a run at top of the line arms like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, who are both likely to get deals that exceed $200 million.
Long-term deals for pitchers on the wrong side of 30 very rarely work out, and there are serious warning signs with both Burnes (alarming drop in strikeout rate) and Fried (worrisome injury history).
Beyond Burnes and Fried, there are some really intriguing free agent arms, including Walker Buehler. And the Mets could also pursue a reunion with Sean Manaea, who seems destined for a four-year deal after Yusei Kikuchi — who is a year older than Manaea and doesn’t have nearly the upside — got three years from the Angels.
There’s also 23-year-old Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, who is the prize of the market. Sasaki has a fastball that sits in the high-90s and touches 102 mph, an otherworldly splitter, and impeccable command.
And since he’s just 23 years old has accumulated only four years of service time in Japan, Sasaki won’t be able to sign anything but a minor league deal — with his contract counting toward his signing team’s international bonus pool allotment.
Decide if now is the time for a big trade
Last offseason, Stearns made it clear that it was highly unlikely the Mets would part with any of their most valued prospects in a trade. The team simply wasn’t in a position to push its chips in.
But following a run to the NLCS and in the midst of an offseason where the club is expected to be aggressive on the free agent market, Stearns has suggested the Mets are open to making the kind of trade that would mean dealing key prospects. That wouldn’t mean gutting the farm system, but it could mean dealing at least one or two legitimate top prospects.
And if the Mets are willing to make a big deal, the most logical target is White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet, who will almost certainly be traded this offseason.
Crochet has two years left of team control and is just 25 years old, so that cost could be astronomical. But if he’s open to signing an extension once traded, it could be worth it.
Brewers closer Devin Williams, who is one year from free agency, could also be available. And he won’t cost nearly as much as Crochet.
It’s also possible to envision a scenario where the Blue Jays dangle Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has one year remaining on his deal.
If the Mets want to make a splashy trade that won’t cost them any of their best prospects, they could call the Cardinals about Nolan Arenado, whose offense has slipped the last few seasons but could be due to bounce back at the plate — and is still an elite defender at third base.
Address the bullpen
As the Mets build their relief corps, there are seemingly three guarantees and a whole lot of question marks.
Edwin Diaz will be the closer, Dedniel Núñez (if back healthy as expected) should be a key setup arm, and Reed Garrett will be a factor. Jose Butto could be an important cog if the Mets keep him in a relief role instead of shifting him back to the rotation, and Holmes may also join the mix if the rotation experiment doesn’t work out.
Regarding the free agent market, the Mets could conceivably turn to one of the top bullpen arms to create a powerful 1-2 punch with Diaz. That would mean signing someone like Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, or Jeff Hoffman.
Less expensive options with tons of upside include Ryne Stanek (who was strong for the Mets during their run to the NLCS), A.J. Minter, Jordan Romano, and Jose Leclerc.
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