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The Denver Nuggets hope to avoid a season series loss when they host the Dallas Mavericks tonight at Ball Arena.
Nikola Jokic is one of the best playmaking bigs the NBA has ever seen, and my Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions expect a big night of dishing for the Denver legend.
Read on for my NBA picks for Wednesday, March 25.
Mavericks vs Nuggets prediction
Mavericks vs Nuggets best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists (-115)
Nikola Jokic does not chase assists. They come from how the Denver Nuggets run their offense, with the ball in his hands at the elbow or in the post on most possessions.
From there, he reads the defense. If defenders stay home, he scores. If they help, he passes to the open man.
The Dallas Mavericks are a team that will send help. They do not have a reliable one-on-one defender to handle Jokic in the paint, so extra defenders will come once he establishes position.
That creates passing lanes and open shots for Denver’s perimeter players.
Our NBA player prop projections model notes that the Nuggets have played at the eighth-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, while the Mavericks have played at the third-speediest tempo over the last five.
This should lead to increased plays for Denver, and more possessions lead to more chances for Jokic to create assists without forcing the action.
His production in this area is steady. He’s averaging 10.5 assists per game along with 17.7 potential assists, which shows how often he is creating scoring chances for teammates.
Recent form supports the play as well. Jokic has recorded at least 11 assists in seven of his last nine games.
His assist total should soar against a Dallas defense that leaks like a sieve, ranking third-worst in assists allowed per game to centers this season.
Mavericks vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Without Aaron Gordon, there’s more pressure on Denver’s secondary scorers like Christian Braun and Cam Johnson to finish plays, and they have.
Braun should see 30+ minutes, and has scored 13 or more points in four of his previous five games.
Johnson should see more scoring opportunities with Gordon likely out. He’s scored at least 13 points in seven of his previous eight contests.
Mavericks vs Nuggets SGP
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Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists
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Christian Braun Over 12.5 points
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Cam Johnson Over 12.5 points
Our “from downtown” SGP: Mile high total
Cooper Flagg is the Mavericks’ offense, and has scored 21+ points in four of his last six.
March has been kind to Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s averaging 13 ppg during March, while Peyton Watson missed Tuesday night’s clash with Phoenix but has scored 11 points or more in eight of his last nine.
All signs point to high scoring.
Denver is 12-4 to the Over on zero days’ rest. Dallas has allowed 130 or more points in four of its last six games, while all three head-to-head meetings this season have eclipsed the total.
Mavericks vs Nuggets SGP
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Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points
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Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 12.5 points
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Peyton Watson Over 10.5 points
Mavericks vs Nuggets odds
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Spread: Mavericks +14.5 | Nuggets -14.5
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Moneyline: Mavericks +523 | Nuggets -730
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Over/Under: Over 245.5 | Under 245.5
Mavericks vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Over is 3-0 in their three previous meetings this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Nuggets
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Location |
Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
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Date |
Wednesday, March 25, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
10:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
KFAA, ALT |
Mavericks vs Nuggets latest injuries
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