It’s bracket season in America as millions of people are making their picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, hoping they draw up the perfect field en route to selecting the eventual national champion. Whether you’ve been following hoops all season or just participating for fun, we know how difficult it is to draw up a successful bracket, so we’re here to help.
In hopes of helping fill out brackets, we’re going to break down all 68 teams into tiers, from one-and-done to those with a real shot of making it to the Final Four.
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March Madness expert picks: Bracket predictions for 2026 NCAA Tournament
Just happy to be here
Prairie View A&M, Lehigh, UMBC, Howard, Long Island, Siena, Queens, Furman, Idaho, Tennessee State, Kennesaw State, California Baptist
For some programs, making the NCAA Tournament is the ultimate dream. Then the tournament comes and getting a No. 13, 14, 15 and 16 pits them against some really heavyweights. The odds of winning a game are so slim, and there’s a good chance the game is a blowout. However, it doesn’t ruin the fact these squads earned the right to be in.
There of course is a chance these teams pull off the major upsets, with two No. 16 seeds and 11 No. 15 seeds winning in the first round. But it doesn’t seem likely.
Upset contenders
Wright State, Penn, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, Troy, Hofstra, High Point, Northern Iowa, SMU, Texas, NC State
If your bracket ends up busted, there’s a good chance one of these teams is responsible.
It’s bound to happen too. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, there’s been at least one upset every year from a team seeded at least five seed lines worse than their opponent, according to the NCAA. On average, there’s at least four upsets in the first round.
The only question is figuring out which one of these teams will provide the shocker.
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Cinderella run to Sweet 16
Akron, McNeese State, South Florida, VCU, Miami (Ohio), Santa Clara
Someone grab the glass slippers with these double-digit seeds capable of winning not just one, but two games in the first weekend of the tournament.
It’s almost a guarantee for it to happen as a double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 38 of the past 40 tournaments. They may not make it to the Final Four, but they’ll get to be the national darling for a full week.
Spoilers
Saint Louis Billikens center Robbie Avila (21) handles the ball against Dayton Flyers forward Jacob Conner (24) during the second half in an Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Semifinal game at PPG Paints Arena.
Texas A&M, Missouri, UCF, Iowa, Saint Louis, TCU, Georgia, Ohio State, Villanova, Clemson, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky, Louisville
You may have the top seeds on the path to the Final Four. This group is capable of wrecking that.
What’s always intriguing about the teams seeded 6-to-10 is they have proven they can knock down heavyweights, they just weren’t able to do it on a consistent basis. All it takes is for these teams to get hot at the right time to provide some major upsets. These are the squads that can really mess up your bracket by taking out Final Four picks.
Can make major run
Utah State, UCLA, Miami (Fla.), BYU, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama
On paper, these teams have difficult paths toward deep runs, but it’s more than possible for these higher-seeded teams.
Do not sleep on the capabilities of these squads. Utah State, UCLA, Miami and BYU ended their season in strong fashion and can carry the momentum into the tournament. While North Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama are first round upset candidates, they can easily shake them off to propel them toward a streak. Don’t be too shocked if a Final Four is in their sights.
Final Four is possible
Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska, Virginia, Gonzaga
Every team wants to reach Indianapolis, but it’s not a realistic path for everyone. These ones are capable of reaching it.
They’re proven contenders that did very well in the regular season and in conference tournaments, putting confidence in them winning the four games necessary to reach the semifinals. There may be one major concern with each of them, but they can easily make it non-existent.
Final Four or bust
St. John’s, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Houston
The Final Four and a national championship has been the goal all season. Now they are positioned to fulfill the dream.
They aren’t exactly the top favorites, but these teams have all the right pieces to win it all. They have the right look and have proven they can beat elite teams, with the clutch factor needed to win those close battles. If you are wary of picking No. 1 seeds to win it all, these are great candidates to hoist the trophy to cap off the season.
National championship or bust
Iowa State, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Duke
The ultimate heavyweights. From the start of the season until now, they’ve shown they can win it all. Now it’s time to actually do it.
This elite tier has separated themselves from the rest of the pack, playing an unreal brand of basketball that has mostly dominated every team in their way. They’re the clear favorites, and destined to be in the Final Four.
When you have the right pieces for a championship, winning it all is the only way to declare it a successful season. Falling short of it would be a major disappointment. Being a championship favorite is a heavy burden, but these six teams can handle the pressure.
When it’s time to cut down the nets inside Lucas Oil Stadium, these ones have a great chance to be the lucky ones holding the scissors.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking every March Madness team: Who can win national championship?
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