Sports can be rather ruthless when it comes to poorly timed injuries. Luka Doncic, the Los Angeles Lakers’ only hope and a legitimate MVP candidate, strained his hamstring and is out indefinitely — very possibly missing the first round of the NBA Playoffs or more. Austin Reaves, their second primary offensive creator, went down to an oblique strain and could miss even more time. He’s trying to rush back, but that’s a scary idea in itself, too. If this was not pro basketball, everyone could just rest up and hit the ground running when healed. The Lakers do not have time for that, and they must soldier on with whatever forces they can muster.
If LeBron James can somehow drag his shorthanded team out of the first round, it will be an iconic, hitherto unheard-of effort that the poets will sing about for decades. But the far more pressing fallout of these injuries is this: the Lakers’ peril creates a power vacuum in the Western Conference that other teams are ready to pounce on.
What was a fairly even field in the West just got tilted hard in favor of whoever can figure out how to play the Lakers in the first round. Currently, the Lakers, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets are separated by less than two games with only four games left. It’s anyone’s guess who will be 3, 4 and 5. The Nuggets and Rockets have both been on absolute tears, winning nine and six straight games, respectively. The Minnesota Timberwolves, the six seed, thought they had won the lottery and that the Lakers had locked up the three seed to be their first-round opponent — not so. This is all terribly confusing, so I’m going to break it down like an NBA seeding-logistic DJ making a really boring mixtape:
The NBA Playoffs do not re-seed opponents each round. I repeat: The NBA Playoffs do not re-seed opponents. That means the winner of the 2-7 match always plays the winner of the 3-6 match AND the winner of the 1-8 match always plays the winner of the 4-5 match. I forget this every year, but we have to remember it this time because it’s important. Write it on your hand. Tattoo it on your back like John Wick. Schedule send an email to yourself every two hours with the subject line “The NBA Playoffs do not re-seed.” Whatever you have to do.
That is critical this year, because, with the Lakers absolutely gutted but right in the thick of a Western Conference seeding battle, tiny shifts in standing can have explosive results on the bracket. I’m not sure any of this is really controllable, but here’s my read on how it could shake down.
If Denver bops the Lakers down to four, the Rockets may luck out, and Oklahoma City may seriously luck out by having to play … whoever the eight seed is and then the winner of Los Angeles/Houston; a very easy duo to beat if the Lakers do not have Luka. Meanwhile, Denver is now faced with a super winnable 6-3 against the Timberwolves and a second round against the scary-but-inexperienced San Antonio Spurs.
The Rockets could mess all of that up if they somehow stumble their way to the three seed, in which case the Spurs are your big winners, staring down only the winner of Houston/Minnesota while the Thunder are like “bro what do you mean I have to play the Nuggets in the second round?”
Denver, meanwhile, might have four free wins left on their schedule, playing two tanking teams and then the Spurs and Thunder in their last two; seems hard, until you realize both those teams are basically locked into their seeds and will probably rest their starters. Houston has a bunch of teams that might actually be trying, and the Lakers are going to have to dig deep, no matter who they play.
This is a fascinating ordeal. With everyone trying so hard to avoid that guy but seek out that other guy and making sure that this dude isn’t waiting around the corner has created so much confusion that we should probably just all agree to just… win basketball games and circle back later. But if we had to distill all of this into some deliverables, here’s what I got:
1. The Timberwolves could be trouble for everyone if this breaks right — if the Wolves get the Lakers in the first round and the Spurs in the second round, they could plausibly make the Western Conference Finals. They are 2-1 against the Spurs this year and their loss was by three points. They have size and match up pretty well. Meanwhile, the Thunder may have to deal with Stephen Curry in round one and Nikola Jokic in round two. That’s less fun.
2. If LeBron James can drag his team out of the first round without Luka and Reaves, he might be the GOAT — I’m not going to sit here and tell you that LeBron, Marcus Smart and Deandre Ayton have a great shot at beating anyone, but if they do… I mean, come on now. That would be legendary stuff.
3. Every single team in the West’s Top 6 can win the West — this has been a hilarious, weird, unpredictable NBA season. You can talk yourself into every single team in the field to make the Finals; if the Lakers are forfeit, even the Rockets can make this happen. If the Lakers somehow make it to Luka’s return, they could pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Basically, had the Lakers, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Rockets all stayed in their assigned seats, this would be reasonably simple and predictable. Now, we’re in a full-blown crisis trying to figure this out. Nothing about this will be logical, nothing about this will be boring. And as a fan of a team in the Eastern Conference, I cannot wait.
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