The Eastern Conference’s third-seeded New York Knicks will take on the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The two franchises haven’t faced off in the postseason since 1992; there probably isn’t a ton to be gained by breaking down those matchups. (Unless, of course, Xavier McDaniel and Mark Aguirre are quietly planning returns to the court. Which, of course, we would welcome.)
What we know about the Knicks
After a whirlwind summer full of arrivals, departures and expenditures — hello, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and a new extension for OG Anunoby; farewell, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein and a half-decade of draft capital — the Knicks look up after 82 games and find themselves … with one more win than last season, and one spot lower in the Eastern standings. Drag!
The revamping did improve New York’s offense, which finished fifth in points scored per possession with Towns and Jalen Brunson developing one of the league’s most potent two-man games, helping provide better spacing for off-ball activators like Anunoby, Bridges and Josh Hart. Tom Thibodeau’s club didn’t tail off much on the other end, either, finishing in or just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency, opponent turnover rate, limiting free-throw and 3-point attempts, and transition defense.
There’s not a ton of bench depth beyond guards Deuce McBride and Cameron Payne — though late-season returns to health from Mitchell Robinson and Landry Shamet have helped. Thibodeau has come under criticism for leaning so heavily on a starting five that hasn’t been as good as you’d think, and for not exploring some other potentially beneficial configurations (like swapping Hart for McBride to juice the shooting with the starters, or double-big looks featuring Towns and Robinson). Even so: The Knicks have performed, on balance, like one of the five or six best teams in the NBA this season.
The glass-half-empty take: They’ve struggled with good opponents all season, going 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials. The Pistons, since mid-December? Ninth in point differential.
What we know about the Pistons
Last season’s Monty Williams-led Pistons tied the NBA record for consecutive losses, finishing with the league’s worst record. What a difference a year makes.
Under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit finished 44-38 — 30 more wins than last season, the sixth-largest single-season turnaround in NBA history. The five teams ahead of these Pistons — the 2007-08 Celtics, 1997-98 Spurs, 1989-90 Spurs, 2004-05 Suns and 1979-80 Celtics — all traded for, signed or drafted all-time greats. Detroit’s biggest additions — Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. — aren’t going to make the Hall of Fame. (Unless there’s a Shimmy Hall of Fame. … Man, there should be a Shimmy Hall of Fame.)
Bickerstaff came in from Cleveland and got the young Pistons organized. This year’s model turned the ball over less, forced turnovers more frequently and hit the gas, finishing fourth in the NBA in transition frequency. He modernized Detroit’s shot profile, increasing 3-point volume (with Sixth Man of the Year candidate Beasley driving that climb) without sacrificing rim pressure (with lead orchestrator Cade Cunningham finishing fourth in drives per game). He instituted a paint-packing defensive scheme that helped the Pistons leap to 11th in defensive efficiency — the franchise’s best finish in nearly a decade.
With Cunningham blossoming into a likely All-NBA selection as the leader of the offense, big men Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart providing physicality and rim protection on the interior, Ausar Thompson and rookie Ron Holland bringing athleticism and tenacity on the perimeter, the Pistons have become one of the NBA’s toughest teams. For the last four months, they’ve also been one of its best, playing at a 50-win pace since mid-December and boasting top-10 units on both ends since the start of February.
That’s got Detroit back in the playoffs for the first time in six years. But can Cade and Co. win the franchise’s first series in 17 years?
Head-to-head
Detroit took the season series, 3-1. New York’s lone win came all the way back at the start of November, before Pistons guard Jaden Ivey got hurt and before Thompson got healthy. Two of the Pistons’ victories came with the Knicks missing starters: a December affair that Towns missed due to knee soreness, and a contest last week in which New York sat Anunoby and Hart.
The one time both teams were mostly healthy? A mid-January meeting at Madison Square Garden that saw Cunningham score 29 of his game-high 36 points in the second half, breaking the Knicks’ defense to the point that Thibodeau sent double-teams at him in the final minute of a one-possession game. Cunningham responded by doing what great facilitators do: getting off the ball, trusting the pass and giving the sharpshooting Beasley the chance to deliver the dagger.
Which brings us to …
Matchup to watch
Cade vs. KAT (and the Knicks’ defense as a whole)
Cunningham feasted against New York during the regular season, averaging 30.8 points and 8.3 assists in 33.6 minutes per game while shooting 56.3% from the floor, 52% from 3-point land and 80% at the free-throw line. The Pistons torched the Knicks to the tune of 121.4 points per 100 possessions with Cade at the controls — 8.1 points-per-100 higher than New York’s full-season defensive rating.
The key: Cunningham comfortably attacking, manipulating and exploiting the Knicks in their preferred pick-and-roll coverage, which sees New York’s bigs — and Towns in particular — drop back to protect the paint. That gives the ball-handler room to maneuver … which, against an operator like Cunningham, who pushed his game to a new level this season by becoming a 35% pull-up 3-point shooter, can be hazardous to your health:
If he turns the corner and gets a step, the 6-foot-6, 235-pound Cunningham is big enough to bulldoze the slighter Bridges or smaller Hart, Brunson and McBride, or to keep them on his hip and get to a comfortable spot in the midrange. The bigger, stronger Anunoby saw less time on Cunningham than Bridges or McBride during the regular season; it’ll be interesting to see if Thibodeau changes that.
If Cunningham can win the KAT-and-mouse game (sorry), getting a retreating Towns to take a step toward him in hopes of stopping the ball, he can either thread a pocket pass or loft a lob to the screener rolling behind the defense. Robinson, who has looked pretty damn good since returning from ankle surgery, is a much better defender in the pick-and-roll than Towns or Precious Achiuwa; heavier minutes for him might be worth a look.
The Knicks could elect to crank up the pressure, sending Towns higher up the floor to play at the level of the screen or springing traps to try to force the ball out of Cunningham’s hands. If they do, they’ll need to rotate quickly on a string behind the play, lest they give up a boatload of open 3s or driving opportunities to the likes of Beasley, Harris, Hardaway and trade-deadline acquisition Dennis Schröder.
Four years ago, Thibodeau’s first New York playoff team ran into a pick-and-roll chessmaster in the first round and got diced up in five. If the coach and his charges can’t come up with a better suite of answers this time around, Knicks fans desperate for the franchise’s first prolonged playoff run in a quarter-century could find themselves waiting even longer.
Crunch-time lineups
New York Knicks
You’re not going to believe this, but the starting five that has played more total minutes than any five-man lineup in the NBA — Brunson, Towns, Hart, Bridges and Anunoby — has also played more fourth-quarter minutes than any other lineup and the lion’s share of the time New York has played when the score’s within five points in the final five minutes. There might be some variation: McBride or Shamet in for a little extra 3-point shooting, Payne for another ball-handler, Robinson to match up with Detroit’s physicality up front, etc. For the most part, though, if the game’s in the balance, you can probably bet on Thibs sticking with what he feels most comfortable with — for better or for worse.
Detroit Pistons
The driving force behind the Pistons’ rise this season has been flanking Cunningham with shooters that defenses have to respect. In a related story, Detroit has scored at a top-six rate with Cunningham, Beasley and Harris sharing the floor this season; lineups featuring them have outscored opponents by 101 points in 184 fourth-quarter minutes.
That trio, Schröder and Hardaway represent five of Detroit’s six most-used crunch-time options, joined by screen-setting, board-crashing big man Duren. Ace defenders/chaos agents Stewart and Thompson might join the party, too; Bickerstaff hasn’t been particularly dogmatic, with no single Pistons lineup playing more than 40 fourth-quarter minutes and 16 getting at least 15 minutes of burn. When it comes down to it, though, expect Bickerstaff to give Cade three shooters, a screener and the rock, and let the chips fall where they may.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
The Pistons have been every bit as good as the Knicks for four solid months now — better over the past couple! — and are playing like a group with a defined identity that knows exactly who they are, what they need to do, and how they need to do it. It feels a little bit like an inversion of the last time a Bickerstaff-coached team met New York in the postseason, with the Knicks in the role of the more talented but underwhelming Cavs and Detroit assuming the mantle of the tougher, more physical, more aggressive and hungrier side.
That said: New York does have the talent advantage at the higher end — especially if Towns can replicate the kinds of postseason performances he turned in for the Timberwolves in last spring’s opening rounds. Thibodeau, as dejected as he seemed with his team’s execution in the final days of the season, proved capable of pushing more of the right tactical buttons than Bickerstaff back in 2022. (One button he should press in this series? Hammering the Brunson-Towns two-man game to get Towns taking way more 3s.) And Brunson, now healthy after missing a month with an ankle sprain, is eminently capable of being the best player in what should be a physical, nasty series.
New York Knicks (-425)
Detroit Pistons (+325)
Series schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Detroit at New York at 6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
Game 2: Detroit at New York (TBD)
Game 3: New York at Detroit (TBD)
Game 4: New York at Detroit (TBD)
*Game 5: Detroit at New York (TBD)
*Game 6: New York at Detroit (TBD)
*Game 7: Detroit at New York (TBD)
*if necessary
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