Jarren Duran placed eighth in American League MVP voting in 2024, between Tarik Skubal and Yordan Alvarez. The following season, his 3.9 fWAR output was a disappointment. Offensively, his offensive output was most hampered by a .050 decrease in his slugging percentage, which includes 13 fewer extra-base hits. His strikeout rate also increased by about 2.5% from 2024 to 2025. Defensively, he recorded 23 defensive runs saved in 2024 and just nine in 2025. His outs above average fell from 10 to -2. Some positional adjustments are going on, and he played much more left field in 2025, but his DRS in center field alone fell from 17 to -2.
Looking at some under-the-hood numbers, Duran’s elite bat speed remained consistent, and he was pitched in a similar manner in terms of pitch types seen. Mechanically, he tinkered with his stance, but the changes were consistent with normal season-long fluctuations. While there are likely several factors at play in Duran’s decreased output, a major factor was the pitches that he chose to swing at.
In 2025, 26.5% of the pitches Duran saw were over the heart of the plate. That number is slightly below his 2024 rate, but it’s right around the league average. In his breakout campaign, he swung at 73.3% of those pitches. In his down year, he only swung at 68.2%. While that might seem like a small dropoff, his overall swing rate was only 1% lower, meaning he was swinging at other, worse pitches.
When you let pitches over the heart of the plate go, they’re called strikes. When you’re behind in the count, you don’t see as many good pitches to hit, unless the pitcher makes a mistake. The past two seasons, Jarren Duran has had a .453 weighted on-base average when he’s ahead in the count. Behind in the count, that number is .220. His chase rate is also nearly 10% higher when the pitcher is ahead.
Duran is also a good fastball hitter — he posted a .368 wOBA against fastballs in 2025, compared to a .265 against breaking balls. That’s in part because more breaking balls come when pitchers are ahead in the count, but the point remains.
Defensively, I remember a few occasions like this, where a miscommunication between Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela led to a fly ball turning into an out. I don’t have statistical support for this one, but I can’t remember these types of plays happening in 2024.
All of this might feel self-explanatory, but I think there can be pressure to work counts, take pitches, and hit with two strikes. Playing next to a Gold Glove winner who makes highlight reel plays on a nightly basis might also lead to a tendency to be passive in the field. While some level of patience is necessary to succeed in the majors, I don’t think that’s who Duran is. There’s a time and place to force the issue (not leading off first base in the eighth inning), but Duran should have a long leash. Swing at the first pitch if it’s there. Stretch singles into doubles, even if it means getting thrown out from time to time. Steal home!
I don’t know Jarren Duran personally. I only know him from watching him play baseball and seeing him in interviews. I don’t know what’s going on in his brain, but he looks like someone who is thinking too much and not letting his instincts take over. In 2023, Dustin Pedroia told Duran to “act like you’re going to hit the f—— s— out of the ball.” He improved defensively in the outfield on the advice of Jackie Bradley Jr., which boiled down to “practice playing outfield”, which led to him getting better jumps on the ball. Given non-baseball, but still on-the-field events that have occurred in Duran’s career, a reasonable person might tell Duran to slow down and think before he acts. While I have no World Series rings, zero career fWAR, and a CPA rather than a therapist’s license, my unqualified advice to Jarren Duran is when they give you a pitch to hit, let it rip.
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