Mid March is a great time of year for any number of reasons, but it isn’t necessarily a great time for analysis. A regular commenter asked how I analyze spring numbers. The simple answer is I don’t. There are any number of reasons why. The most important reason is that the sample size is just too small. I’ll sometimes quote the numbers, but they really don’t mean anything.
The second problem is that we don’t know what level of competition these guys are facing. We can get excited about a young player breaking out until we realize they are mainly squared off against other young players. Obviously, that is doubly true for veterans. Finally, when we look at veterans we have to consider that sometimes they are working on something specific that may not translate to performance. Pitchers may work on a specific pitch or hitters may try to hit the ball the opposite way.
Keeping all of this in mind, I wanted to take the opportunity to answer another question that came down the pike. Someone asked for the source for many of these numbers. An analyst is only as good as his or her tools and I need to be upfront in admitting that others have done the heavy lifting for the most part. My job is to take those numbers and use them to analyze players and performance. However, much like theologians and the Bible, we are better off when more people understand the underlying sources and their strengths and weaknesses.
Baseball-reference.com
One could call baseball-reference.com the official online baseball encyclopedia. The strength comes in the wealth of information and the ease of finding what you are looking for. It sets itself apart from Fangraphs.com by including things like rankings in certain categories on each player’s page including a section of when they led the league in certain categories or finished in the top ten. This was huge for me when I was calculating awards voting and deserved MVP points.
It should be noted that B-ref uses it’s own WAR formula we normally call BWAR. It is based primarily on their fielding metric which ties pretty closely to defensive runs saved (Fielding Bible). It does not have the wealth of fielding metrics that Fangraphs and other sources have. However, it is an absolutely terrific resource if you want quick information on players from conventional data to the more sabermetric data.
Fangraphs.com
Fangraphs.com is my favorite site and probably most trusted resource. The advantage of Fangraphs over Baseball-reference is that it includes more minor league information and that came in handy when breaking down the hitters and pitcher numbers from the past few weeks. They also include international numbers as well. Baseball-reference also has this information, but it takes a few extra clicks to get there. When I want this information in a hurry I go to Fangraphs.
Obviously, the graphs part of the name is key. They include a lot more of what I would call process data than Baseball reference. So, what exactly is process data? In short, it includes things like pitch velocity, spin rates, and exit velocity for hitters. So, if you want to know what a pitcher’s average curveball velocity or what a hitter’s chase rate, contact rate, or hard hit rate then Fangraphs is the fastest resource to get that information.
I should note that they do have access to leaderboards. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have paid services that allow you to custom those leaderboards for your own research. I personally do not currently do that because the free versions give me everything I want, but people that want to go into even more detailed analysis should check those out.
Baseball Savant
Baseballsavant.com is another resource that more and more analysts are using. In particular, it includes some of the same information as Fangraphs, but uses more charts and graphics to show the information more graphically. That includes things like heat maps for hitters and tracking pitches for pitchers along with movement, velocity, and spin.
These numbers come in handy particularly when looking at individual performances early in the season. Hitters and pitchers can look great or horrible because of the numbers, but the underlying information may not match. Seeing it graphically is great for visual fans that want to see what the numbers are saying. The site also includes more underlying numbers that can explain why fielding numbers and base running numbers say what they do.
As I said earlier, an analyst is only as good as his or her tools. The goal of this space is not only to analyze but to educate about how analysis gets done. I may be the analytics guy around here, but I am also a teacher at heart. As such, if you have ever had a question that has had you scratching your head, this is the space for you. Feel free to jump into the comments with a particular question. As we get closer to the actual season we will start going fast and furious into the actual numbers flying at us. Until then, enjoy the last few days of spring baseball while you can.
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