Just a few hours from now, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will stage a three-way Formula 1 title decider – the first of its kind for 15 years.
It will involve two drivers from the McLaren team – Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri – and Red Bull racer Max Verstappen.
Pirelli F1 chief Mario Isola explained on Saturday that a one-stop strategy “is the quickest on paper” at Yas Marina, with a first stint on mediums and a second on hards.
In that case, all three drivers would be on an equal footing, as all of them have at least a set of new mediums and a set of new hards.
Likewise for the slightly slower hard/soft strategy, as they have the same amount of used softs, with the red-walled compound used in qualifying.
Where things become interesting – especially if tyre graining is an issue – is in the event of a two-stopper, which could be medium/hard/medium, medium/hard/hard, or medium/hard/soft.
Oscar Piastri, McLaren
Photo by: Giuseppe Cacace – AFP – Getty Images
“If you have a graining that is a headache or difficult to manage, usually you move from a one-stop situation to a two-stop situation quite easily,” Isola pointed out. “Because the degradation that is generated by the graining is not manageable. So, there is very little you can do. With thermal degradation you can manage, with graining it is a lot more difficult.
“It is clear that here they want to protect the rear tyre. Because you need a good traction, so they push more the front and they generate graining. But for the race tomorrow, with some pace management, I believe that it is possible to keep the graining at a level that gives them the possibility to plan a one-stop strategy.”
The main difference when it comes to a two-stop is that both McLarens have two sets of hards and one of mediums, while it’s the other way around for Verstappen: one set of hards, two of mediums.
“It is interesting that McLaren decided to keep two sets of hards for tomorrow,” Isola commented. “So, if there is a safety car or any other reason why they have to move from a one-stop to a two-stop, they have an extra set of hards, while the other top teams have two sets of mediums. So they have a slightly different approach if there is any kind of disruption during the race.
“When I saw them yesterday keeping the two sets of hards, the idea was that they want to play in a conservative mode to be sure that they have the right performance during the race. But the medium is not far from [the hard], it is not a completely different situation.”
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Giuseppe Cacace – AFP – Getty Images
Finally, a factor that will be just as important – and could prove to be even more crucial – will be Yuki Tsunoda’s role.
Red Bull’s demoted-for-2026 driver said he was ready to “compromise” his strategy in order to help Verstappen – in other words, delay his first pitstop for as long as he can.
Then, the McLaren drivers would have two options: do likewise until they have enough of a gap to rejoin ahead of the second Red Bull, or pit at the best theoretical time – especially if they need to cover Verstappen for one reason or another – but have to overtake a feisty Tsunoda on the track.
That’s a good time to remember how Lewis Hamilton’s lead relative to Verstappen shrunk from nine to two seconds when he ended up behind Sergio Perez in the 2021 showdown…
Additional reporting by Ronald Vording
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– The Autosport.com Team
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