How will F1 Monaco GP’s two-stop race play out?

A contrivance? On the face of it, enforcing a two-stop minimum for the Monaco Grand Prix seems like one – although at the same time, a plot-generating device one might think nothing of, had Formula 1 ratified the idea 50 years ago.

The effect of ensuring every driver takes at least one additional stop is completely uncharted at this point. It could have cataclysmic ramifications for those involved in the race – equally, it has just as much chance of adding absolutely nothing.

For clarification, the addition of a second mandatory stop does not mean that drivers have to use the C6 tyre in the race – the two-compound minimum still exists. They may choose to, depending on how the race shapes up, but it’s entirely down to the discretion of how the teams use their allowance of pitstops.

This will vary considerably across the field. It’s natural that those occupying the front-most positions will be much more averse to risk, simply because there’s far more to lose; for those at the rear, banking a stop early and hoping for clear air to set some laps unencumbered by the effect of traffic seems like a realistic strategy.

But what if everyone in the second half of the field does it? In that case, the 10 cars are simply transposed slightly further down the road, bisecting the train into two smaller parades. What if there’s a safety car, or a VSC, or something else that interrupts the strategy? There’s thousands of different permutations here.

Race teams are accustomed to running the scenarios like this, so they’ll be well armed for whatever situations come their way. But when it comes to Monaco and the overwhelming power of track position, strategists will be challenging the status quo around the circuit in order to take it. Think of it like a two-stop debt – how and when do you pay off the arrears?

“I think there’s quite a few obvious scenarios and pointers. I think not one team will have them exclusively,” Nico Hulkenberg said in the lead-in to the weekend.

“But it depends where you start; it depends where you are after lap one. You can go through all the scenarios now, but it really depends. And then, again, if something happens later in the race, that puts things on its head again, potentially.”

Drivers in the bottom half of the field after the first lap might feel more enfranchised to pit at the end of the first lap but, at the same time, they have to react to what the drivers around them do. Do you try to undercut the car ahead, follow them in, or use the free air to overcut? Engineers will be caught on the hop and, strategically, not reacting to events is just as important as reacting to them in real time. It’ll all depend on how the field is spread out on track.

As for the drivers towards the front, the dynamic changes. The driver in second place might try to make the undercut work if they feel they’ve got more pace on the leader.

Equally, the leader could attempt to pull the pin early and break-build to garner a much simpler strategic advantage. After all, a four-, five-second leap at the start of the race could buy an early stop.

Oscar Piastri still believes that pole will retain that advantage, allowing the driver who claims the front-row seat in qualifying more latitude to make the difference here.

“I still think 90-something percent about Monaco is qualifying,” Piastri explained. “I think it’s very complicated now with these two stops. Also, just using three sets of tyres because if it’s red flags like we saw last year, it’s not quite as simple as what it was. So it’s definitely going to throw a spanner in the works for everyone.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL30

Photo by: Erik Junius

“But I think if you qualify on pole, unless something goes dramatically wrong, it’s going to be hard to be beaten. I think you can roll the dice a bit more, but there’s a lot of strategic elements involved.

“Will it increase overtaking? No. But it will probably lead to a more complicated result.

“If you want to drive 10 seconds a lap slower, you can. It’s quite different to a normal pace. But it does make things very difficult because you have the most to lose. That’s kind of the biggest thing. Everyone else behind you can take a few more risks. There’s different team strategies that you can deploy.”

Piastri’s likely right about spectacle; although there will be a range of tyre offsets on display at Monaco, it’s not going to work the kind of magic that makes the sole DRS zone into Sainte Devote a sudden slam-dunk passing area. It’s as much of a test for the team as it is for the drivers in making the magic happen.

Regardless, per Lewis Hamilton, it should offer something new: “If you keep doing the same thing over and over and over, you’re going to get the same result. I think it’s cool that they’re trying something different. Whether or not it’s the answer, we’ll find out this weekend.

“It’s definitely going to be different to what we’ve had in the last year,” he added. “Whether that’s better or not, I have no idea, I can’t predict. But I like that we have something different.”

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images via Getty Images

But even the best laid plans go awry when there’s a safety car, or a VSC – Monaco being a circuit where VSC timing really matters. While safety cars often disrupt results and offer opportunities to other teams to make a strategic gamble, this year’s race might be more interesting if it remains safety-car free.

After all, everyone will just pit if there’s a safety car – removing one of the opportunities for a rear-guard team to do something wild with strategy.

“It changes quite a lot the format of how we thought about things for so long,” Esteban Ocon explained – being one of the drivers who may stand to benefit if Haas chooses to go off-piste with its strategy (which it often does…). “Which is a good thing, because it creates uncertainty, it creates different scenarios. And that’s going to be interesting.

“It’s usually complicated enough around Monaco to get everything right. But you don’t think too much about that strategy until Sunday with what you are given. But it’s going to be different this year.

“I think there’s going to be quite a lot of people trying different things. There’s a bit of a feeling on Saturday afternoon, normally for 12th or 15th you’re kind of stuck with it.

“But now your guys can sit down and think, right, how can we get into the top six or even better? This happens, that happens, first pitstop, there’s more opportunity. The guys in the front, they try and extend, they try and clear the window from the back and then box into it.

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

“And there is a big management queue. And then the last five laps before people pit, they just push to create the gap. Now there is two times this opportunity.”

For many years, Monaco has effectively been decided on a Saturday. Now, there’s a genuine chance for someone to throw caution to the wind in pursuit of a Sunday surprise – and this is not a chance only reserved for the top teams.

It might be a bit of a lottery but, if someone gets the strategy right, they could walk away with a colossal payday.

Additional reporting by Oleg Karpov, Mark Mann-Bryans