When you think about the Mets’ offseason and what the team will look like at the start of the 2026 campaign, there are a few things that immediately come to mind.
One is the future of the offensive core, which was broken up when Brandon Nimmo was traded to the Rangers for Marcus Semien.
Another is the free agency of Pete Alonso, who could return but whose power would have to be replaced externally if he signs elsewhere.
The bullpen also needs to be overhauled, and how it looks will have a lot to do with Edwin Diaz, who — like Alonso — is a free agent the Mets would like to bring back.
Then there’s the starting rotation, which will very likely be bolstered in a big way — with a trade for a top-of-the-rotation arm seeming likely.
As New York goes about rebuilding the starting staff, here’s how things are shaking out…
The Locks
There are currently eight realistic starting pitching options on New York’s roster. They are:
Nolan McLean
Sean Manaea
Clay Holmes
David Peterson
Kodai Senga
Brandon Sproat
Jonah Tong
Christian Scott
Of those eight, it’s fair to believe that three of them might be in ink when it comes to inclusion in the rotation out of spring training. Those three are McLean, Manaea, and Holmes.
Aug 27, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean (26) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. / Vincent Carchietta – Imagn Images
The Internal Candidates
Beyond McLean, Holmes, and Manaea, there are lots of question marks.
Peterson seems like a safe bet to be in the rotation if he’s healthy, and there have been no rumblings about the Mets dangling him via trade.
The left-hander struggled for most of the second half of the 2025 season and was borderline unpitchable down the stretch, but it’s possible fatigue played a factor. Peterson threw a career-high 168.2 innings last season, up from his previous high of 121.0 in 2024.
As far as Senga, his Mets future is in doubt.
After a 2024 season that was almost entirely lost to injury, Senga got off to a terrific start in 2025. But his season was interrupted by a hamstring injury, and he was never able to find his groove following his return. There were constant battles with his mechanics and comfort, and an eventual trip to the minor leagues — where he attempted to get things right but was unable to do so.
Given how things have shaken out the last few years for Senga with the Mets, it feels like he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2026.
Then there’s Sproat and Tong, who both showed flashes when called upon late last season.
Sproat seems like the better bet to crack the Opening Day rotation, while Tong — whose ups and downs were more stark during his brief big league stint — could likely use some more time to refine his stuff and approach in Triple-A Syracuse, where he made only two starts last season before being promoted.
However, there’s also the possibility that Sproat and/or Tong get traded this offseason.
The Wild Card in the mix is Scott, who opened eyes during his first taste of the majors in 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Scott, 26, should be healthy entering spring training, when he’ll be roughly 17 months post-surgery. But it could be a bit of a stretch to expect him to be in the mix for a starting spot right away. There’s also a likely innings limit to consider.
Sep 4, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) reacts after striking out Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm (not pictured) with the bases loaded in the fourth inning at American Family Field. / Benny Sieu – Imagn Images
The External Candidates
It was the failure of the starting rotation that was most to blame for the Mets’ 2025 season spiraling out of control.
Some of that had to do with really bad injury luck, but the depth that was assembled simply wasn’t good enough. Beyond that, president of baseball operations David Stearns was not quick enough to act when the team needed reinforcements — something he lamented during his end-of-season news conference.
With that as the backdrop, the expectation is that the Mets will add significant pieces to the rotation this offseason.
And it can be argued that the most sensible plan would be to seek a top-of-the-rotation starter via trade (given the Mets’ glut of infielders and advantageous situation they’re in with their farm system) and land a mid-rotation starter with upside via free agency.
Three of the most high-profile free agent starters — Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King — aren’t ideal fits. Valdez is entering his age-32 season and had a troubling on-field incident last season, Suarez’s fastball velocity has been steadily dropping, and King has serious injury concerns.
The two free agent pitchers who arguably make the most sense for the Mets? Dylan Cease and Tatsuya Imai.
Cease, who is entering his age-30 season, brings the floor of a solid innings-eater and the upside of a Cy Young candidate.
Imai, who has a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and reaches 99 mph, is viewed by many experts as a mid-rotation starter in the majors with room for more. And he’s entering his age-28 season.
As far as the trade market goes, I’ll buy that the Tigers are keeping Tarik Skubal when he takes the ball for them on Opening Day.
If Detroit is not serious about paying Skubal what it will take to keep him beyond 2026, he should be dealt now, which would allow them to import a massive influx of talent — and the Mets have the assets needed should he be truly available.
Beyond Skubal is Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. And while Milwaukee’s front office recently tried to shoot down rumors of him getting dealt, they certainly didn’t say he was staying. There’s also Joe Ryan of the Twins and Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, who could both be on the move.
No matter who they wind up with, the Mets must find a way to properly address the rotation — something they failed to do last offseason, which resulted in their undoing.
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