Today marks exactly one year since a motorcycle other than a Ducati won a grand prix in MotoGP. Even then it came as a surprise in a championship dominated by the Bologna bikes. Maverick Vinales’s dominance at the 2024 Americas Grand Prix for Aprilia proved to be the archetypal flash in the pan.
In the wake of another seemingly easy victory for Marc Marquez aboard the factory ‘Duke’ in Qatar over the weekend, it would at first glance be easy to lament an even more monotonous start to the year than 2024 provided. There hasn’t even been a maverick, outlier result to pretty the picture in the four events so far.
But, while it seems very close to a foregone conclusion that Marquez will win the riders’ title if he doesn’t get injured, the early part of 2025 has in fact been a touch more interesting in terms of a challenge to Ducati’s hegemony as a whole.
Part of that impression is simply down to the long overdue reduction in Ducati’s numerical advantage. The Pramac squad’s switch to running Yamaha machinery has slashed the Ducati hordes from eight bikes to six. Therefore, even if the Italian machines retain exactly the same front-running supremacy as last year, everybody else automatically moves up a couple of spots. This is a little caveat that has to be acknowledged when celebrating top 10s and points finishes for the other manufacturers.
This simple redistribution of machinery has certainly done its bit to add a little variety to the upper reaches of the MotoGP field. It would take a doctoral dissertation and plenty of conjecture to unpick how much of that is down to the Pramac defection, but what’s clear is that the other manufacturers have all had a go at nipping at Ducati’s heels this year.
The problem so far is that these moments have been the sniping, irregular attacks of a small dog on a postman. In fact, they’ve been more like a gang of undersized canines taking it in turns to give the mailman his daily exercise.
Every weekend, it seems, one or other of ‘the rest’ puts in a display that lets it dare to dream. We have even heard Yamaha and Honda riders saying they are “happy” at various times. This was unheard for most of 2024. Concessions are helping the Japanese bikes, it seems. It makes those neutrals watching on dare to dream too.
Zarco has started to smile this year as Honda has taken a step forward
Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images
At Honda, LCR’s Johann Zarco has spent most of the year smiling. His headline act thus far was the front-row start in Argentina, even though the Frenchman was unable to quite convert that into any podium finishes. To this he added a fourth place in the Qatar GP. The factory bikes also had their moment in the sun in Texas, with Luca Marini and Joan Mir qualifying seventh and eighth respectively.
Yamaha has been as enigmatic as any of Ducati’s would-be challengers. Jack Miller appeared to be flying the flag early on following his move to Pramac, qualifying fourth in Thailand. He was also deliciously fast in the mixed conditions of Texas practice, ultimately qualifying ninth and finishing the GP fifth. Although the Queenslander’s crashing habit hasn’t gone anywhere, he’s been largely positive about the bike. Fabio Quartararo has spent his usual share of time complaining about the M1, but that stopped in Qatar when he qualified on the front row and finished the sprint fifth.
Others too have had their moments of joy. Aprilia’s factory team has had a ropey start to the year, but Trackhouse rider Ai Ogura has given an indication that there’s hope for the RS-GP. Qualifying fifth for the opener in Thailand, then finishing fourth and fifth in sprint and GP respectively, was the highlight so far. But it’s been harder for the rookie at tracks where he didn’t enjoy a MotoGP test in the build-up.
A tenacious Rottweiler has yet to emerge from the moody pack of yapping mini-hounds. But, if any can, perhaps Honda looks most likely given the evidence so far
And now, finally, KTM has had its turn to nip at some Ducati heels. Until Sunday, it seemed this was the one manufacturer with nothing you could talk up. There had been some single-lap pace, but a mysterious vibration issue was ruining races. Then Vinales showed up in the Qatar Grand Prix. With little warning, the Tech3 man took the RC16 to the very front of the field in the main event – a performance based on some creative lines and straightline speed.
None of Ducati’s rivals had yet taken the fight to the GP25 in such a way. Vinales actually stood on the podium, though his second place was later taken away for a tyre pressure infringement. The sudden appearance at the sharp end of a grand prix by a KTM, hitherto the most doomed-looking package of them all, rather summed up the flighty and inconsistent efforts of Ducati’s rivals.
Will Quartararo be in the mix for the front row at Jerez? Will a KTM once again be in the hunt for the lead? The pattern so far suggests that it will be someone else’s turn to lead the chase when the circus hits sherry country in a fortnight.
So far, the deal seems to be that a manufacturer can knock at Ducati’s door only if everything lines up perfectly. The circuit needs to suit – note that Qatar was the venue where the KTM factory team scored its only 2024 podium. There cannot be a fraction of interference on a qualifying lap. Starts need to be perfect. Tyre choice needs to be bang on. Dialled-in Ducati riders can get away with imperfection, at least in the fight against other bikes. The technical advantage is there to give them a cushion. Not so – yet – for the rest.

KTM took a step forward in Qatar but no-one has yet mounted a consistent challenge to Ducati
Photo by: Tech3 Racing
The worry is that this gap is only going to swell as we head back to Europe. In recent times, that’s when Ducati’s development efforts have really kicked in and its rivals have begun to lose hope.
This year’s testing concessions – particularly for Honda and Yamaha – put a different spin on that pattern. The Monday after Jerez will be Ducati’s first chance to test since before the season. While the day is an opportunity for everyone, it looms as a bigger one for Ducati.
So which manufacturer might be up to the challenge of not just keeping up with the Ducatis but consistently getting among them as the European season begins?
As we have seen, a tenacious Rottweiler has yet to emerge from the moody pack of yapping mini-hounds. But, if any can, perhaps Honda looks most likely given the evidence so far. Both the experienced Zarco and the analytical Marini have remained consistently convinced that the package has what it takes. There’s reason to believe the RC213V may even have underachieved so far.
Honda has probably been the most consistently improved package across its fleet, and it has come the furthest. Last year there was very little light at the end of the tunnel for the struggling manufacturer. Take Zarco in Qatar a year ago: he qualified 13th and finished the GP 12th. This year those figures were seventh and fourth. You certainly cannot put that leap down to the Pramac bike swap alone.
If there is one problem Honda still needs to sort out, it’s the bike’s lack of straightline speed. But Zarco has gone on the record to say that the hiring of Romano Albesiano as technical director – it’s a historically drastic move for a Japanese company to have taken on a European – is bearing fruit already. There is some reason to believe problems like the engine’s top end can now be addressed quickly.
It may not matter that the Spanish GP is probably a little too soon for an Albesiano-inspired kick up the front straight. Little old Jerez is not a track that requires a lot of grunt at the top of the range. So, what better place for Honda to start running with the big dogs every week?

Can Honda now rise to the task of regularly fighting Ducati?
Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images
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