How far has Bagnaia fallen behind compared to last year in MotoGP?

Two-time MotoGP champion Francesco Bagnaia made a striking admission last month when he revealed his race time in the Austrian Grand Prix was 12 seconds slower than in 2024. Remarkably, this year’s winner Marc Marquez completed the distance in exactly the same time Bagnaia had managed on his way to victory last season.

“The winner did it in the same time it took me to win last year. So I have the potential,” he told DAZN.

“I don’t know why things aren’t working out for me. Marco Bezzecchi and Marc Marquez did everything better than me. That I finished 12 seconds behind on a circuit where I always made a difference is something I don’t understand, and will never understand.”

Indeed, while Marquez and the rest stepped up at the Red Bull Ring in 2025 thanks to natural bike progression and other factors, Bagnaia went backwards, finishing only eighth.

That Austria comparison summed up the slump defining Bagnaia’s 2025 campaign, and has allowed Marquez to close in on a seventh world title.

But just how badly has the Italian fallen from grace this year, after a 2024 season in which he described himself as the fastest rider on the grid?

The contrast with 2024

By the 14th round of the 2024 MotoGP season, the Emilia Romagna GP in mid-September, Bagnaia had already won seven grands prix and 10 podiums in total. Even in sprint races, which were his Achilles Heel last year, he still collected four victories and two other top-three finishes by this point last year.

To his credit, Bagnaia has stood on the podium in half of the 14 grands prix so far this year, but with just one victory to his credit in 2025, the season is looking bleak for the Italian.

In sprint races, his record has been even worse in 2025, not helped by the fuel tank issues he has repeatedly referenced. In the half-distance races, he has scored just five podiums in 14 attempts – with just one of those sprint podiums coming in the last nine race weekends.

However, for a more accurate comparison to 2024, it would be better to compare only those circuits where he has raced in both years. This avoids any calendar fluctuations, ignoring new or returning events such as Hungary, Czech Republic and Argentina, as well the rescheduled Portuguese GP.

2025 vs 2024 – Francesco Bagnaia’s finishing positions

*wet race

**retirements excluded from averages

As is clear from the table, Bagnaia’s average finishing position from the sample size in 2024 was an impressive 1.8. This doesn’t count his retirement in the Aragon GP, when he was taken out by Alex Marquez, or any of the sprint races.

With six fewer victories this season, and some tough races like Austria, where he was classified eighth, Bagnaia’s average finishing position has dropped to 4.6. Again, his DNF in the rain-hit French GP has been excluded from the calculation.

Race times comparison

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Going back to Bagnaia’s point about his race pace in Austria, it’s also important to compare his race times in 2025 to last year for a complete picture.

This is not the best metric for comparison, with variables like track conditions, weather, tyre pressures and bike development all needing to be considered.

The pace in a grand prix is also usually dictated by the rider at the very front, and Marquez hasn’t always found the need to unleash his true speed in 2025.

However, ignoring anomalies like Thailand, where lap times dropped by four minutes as the race was moved from October to March, or the rain-hit French GP, some meaningful comparisons can be made. 

Francesco Bagnaia – Race time comparison (2025 vs 2024)

***Different time of the year

The Spanish GP at Jerez is a good barometer for performance, with the race taking place on the same weekend of April in both cases.

Bagnaia won the 2024 race from seventh on the grid, completing 25 laps around Jerez in 40m58.053s.

This year’s winner Alex Marquez completed the race in 40m56.374s, reflecting an almost two-second increase in pace compared to last year. However, Bagnaia actually recorded a slower time this year, with his pace regressing by half a second over the course of the 25 laps.

In both years, the early race leader crashed early on, with Jorge Martin hitting the deck on lap 11 in 2024 and Marc Marquez ending on the tarmac on lap 3. For context, Bagnaia lost time in 2024 while battling with Marquez, while this year his race time was affected by on-track fights with the younger Marquez as well as Fabio Quartararo.

Bagnaia was also significantly slower at the Dutch GP this year, but so was the rest of the field, so a fair comparison there is impossible. 

At Sachsenring, Marquez’s total race time this year was two seconds slower than Bagnaia’s in 2024. But Bagnaia himself suffered a drop of seven seconds over 2024, which is quite significant compared to the rest of the field.

The Austria comparison Bagnaia made was also quite interesting, as it indicates that while the overall race pace didn’t change compared to 2024, the 28-year-old himself went backwards. 

In fact, while Marquez scored his maiden Red Bull Ring win with relative ease, he would have lost out to ‘2024 Bagnaia’ by one tenth in a hypothetical competition.

Of course, comparisons using average finishing positions and race times come with their own limitations, but they still indicate the general trend between the two years.

More importantly, Bagania’s comments reflect his psychological state, with the conviction that he was faster with last year’s bike growing stronger in his mind.

Of course, there’s no denying that the ‘GP25’ doesn’t suit Baganaia in the same way its predecessor did, but it’s clear that the situation is seriously weighing him down with eight rounds still to go in 2025.