How F1’s recent title battles stood with a third of the season left

Were this 25 years ago, reaching the 16-race mark would coincide with the end of the Formula 1 season – but in our current 24-race calendar, there’s still another third of the season’s runtime to go.

A 31-point margin separates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris as it stands with eight races left, having swelled from the nine-point gap at the summer break following Norris’ oil leak in Zandvoort. It’s a big margin, but not one that’s insurmountable – although Piastri certainly has an upper hand, the equivalent of 1.24 grand prix victories. Norris would either need his team-mate to retire from a race, or to suddenly sustain a performance drop-off, to bring himself back into play.

Out of curiosity, we thought we’d revisit where recent championship battles have stood with a third of the season left to play and see if the picture either changed, or if the championship leader chose the moment to break away from the peloton.

2021: Hamilton two points clear of Verstappen after 100th GP win

In a rain-affected Sochi encounter, Lewis Hamilton gave chase to long-time leader Lando Norris – and the pressure on his countryman paid off when the rain fell; Norris slipped off the road, delaying his first grand prix victory by almost three years. This, meanwhile, was Hamilton’s 100th grand prix win, a result that put him on 246.5 points – just two more than Max Verstappen.

By finishing second in Turkey versus Hamilton’s fifth, Verstappen moved ahead by six points, then extended it to 12 points after winning at the United States GP after absorbing pressure from the Mercedes. It rose again in Mexico to 19 points, before Hamilton cut it down to 14 in Brazil.

The ebb and flow continued; Hamilton’s Qatar win took the gap down to eight points, and then his follow-up victory and fastest lap in Jeddah put them on 369.5 points apiece heading into the Abu Dhabi finale.

Of course, what happened next will remain one of the most famous title deciders in F1 history – and the final-lap swing, as Verstappen used his fresher tyres to pass Hamilton following a contentious safety car restart, led to the Dutchman clinching his first world title in style.

2018: Hamilton begins his eventual breakaway from Vettel

Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari SF71H facing the wrong way after making contact with Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG F1 W09

Photo by: Manuel Goria / Motorsport Images

Sebastian Vettel’s Sachs Kurve crash at Hockenheim is generally credited as the turning point in 2018’s F1 title run-in; Vettel had left Silverstone with an eight-point lead, but this had soon swung in Hamilton’s favour as the Mercedes driver assumed victory in Germany.

Vettel had won at the Belgian Grand Prix to close the gap to 17 points, but his first-lap touch with Hamilton at Monza (the “they’ve touched, Martin” clash) and the Briton’s late pass on leader Kimi Raikkonen to win the final European race of the year culminated in a 30-point difference by the season’s two-thirds mark.

Unable to win any more races that year, Vettel’s challenge had well and truly fizzled out. Hamilton went from strength to strength and closed out the title with five wins in the last seven races, while Ferrari’s sole win in the flyaways came courtesy of Raikkonen’s final F1 win at Austin.

2016: Hamilton holds a two-point lead over Rosberg before swing

Nico Rosberg, Mercedes AMG F1, second place Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG F1, Simon Cole, Mercedes AMG F1 Chief Track Engineer, third place Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

Photo by: Sutton Images

After his German Grand Prix win, Hamilton was 19 points clear of Nico Rosberg in their final season as team-mates, but Rosberg’s back-to-back wins at Spa and Monza ensured that the gap was just two points ahead of 2016’s final third.

In a season where Rosberg threw everything but the kitchen sink at making his title dreams come true, he then recaptured the lead with his win at Singapore. But Malaysia defined the crucial swing, as Hamilton’s engine infamously blew up on the 43rd lap while leading. Rosberg, meanwhile, got a 10-second penalty for clashing with Kimi Raikkonen in their battle for third, but he pulled out enough of an advantage to retain the position.

With five to go, the title lead had swollen to 23 points, and Rosberg’s win at Japan (Hamilton finishing third behind Verstappen) then made that 33 points.

Hamilton won the final four races, and Rosberg just needed to finish as runner-up in each one – with provision to finish third once. And, despite Hamilton’s best efforts to hold Rosberg up and feed him to Vettel and Verstappen behind at the Abu Dhabi finale, the German secured the title…then promptly retired ahead of the FIA prize-giving ceremony.

2014: Rosberg has 22-point break over Hamilton, but title goes the other way

Nico Rosberg, Mercedes AMG F1 W05 and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG F1 W05

Photo by: Sutton Images

By contrast, 2014 was something of a reversal; with six to go after Monza, Rosberg was 22 points up, although he’d seen his advantage trimmed down by Hamilton’s win at the Temple of Speed.

While many see Hamilton’s engine failure at Sepang in 2016 as the pivotal moment in that year’s championship, Rosberg’s electrical failure in Singapore was one of the key components in the championship’s swing back towards Hamilton, as he left Marina Bay with a now-three-point deficit.

Hamilton then chalked up wins in the next three rounds at Suzuka, Sochi, and Austin, growing the lead to 24 points over Rosberg, who got one back at Brazil to ensure it sat at 17 points ahead of the Abu Dhabi finale.

In a normal season, this would require Rosberg to finish at least second and hope Hamilton ensured some kind of misfortune but, in a move never likely to be repeated, the Abu Dhabi finale offered double points. Regardless, this proved to be irrelevant as Rosberg suffered an ERS failure in the first half of the Yas Marina race, but elected to trudge on until the end despite being well out of contention.

2012: Alonso 37 clear of Hamilton, 39 ahead of Vettel

Podium: Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, Sergio Perez, Sauber and Fernando Alonso, Ferrari

Photo by: Sutton Images

Since the current points system was introduced in 2010, Alonso’s 37-point lead has been the biggest points gap overturned at two-thirds distance (almost, at least; this was a 20-season race). This was over Monza winner Hamilton, as Vettel was fourth in the championship behind Raikkonen as the European season ended.

Vettel then moved up to second with his win in Singapore, as Hamilton retired with a gearbox quality control issue (foam moulding was found left within the casing), cutting the gap to 29 points behind Alonso as the reigning champion emerged as the key second challenger.

Suzuka accelerated Vettel’s title credentials when Alonso tried to fend off Raikkonen at the start and ended up collecting a puncture after the two made contact, allowing Vettel to close the door to just four points. The Red Bull driver then dominated in Korea and India; after the penultimate round of the year in F1’s first visit to the Circuit of the Americas, Vettel was 13 points clear.

For the Brazil finale, Vettel only qualified fourth while Alonso was only eighth, but the German’s poor start put him down to seventh – which left him open for a clash with Bruno Senna in the upper midfield. In a spectacular race, stuffed to the gunnels with drama, Alonso made his way up to second but needed Vettel to finish eighth or lower to ensure the title was his.

Instead, despite Vettel suffering a slow stop while pitting for inters, he was able to hang onto seventh to secure the points he’d needed once the inter stops cycled out – and his pass on Michael Schumacher before the race-ending safety car locked down his third championship.

2010: Hamilton three points clear of Webber, Vettel 31 points behind in four-way title battle

Lewis Hamilton, McLaren MP4-25

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

One of the most interesting facts about 2010 is that the driver leading the championship at any given time did not win the following race. At 2010’s Belgian Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton took victory and the title lead by just three points over Mark Webber, while Sebastian Vettel was a further 28 points back. And, with six races to go, Fernando Alonso was fifth with a 41-point deficit to Hamilton.

Naturally, Hamilton didn’t win next time out in Monza; Alonso did, to get within 21 points of new title leader Webber. The Spaniard won next time out in Singapore too, slashing the gap to just 11 points as Vettel was fourth and just 21 points shy of the 2005 and 2006 champion.

Vettel then won in Japan to bring him level with Alonso on 206 points, both 14 points behind Webber. But the Australian’s crash with Nico Rosberg in Korea delivered critical damage to his title foundations, and Alonso took victory at the Yeongam circuit to break into an 11-point lead. Meanwhile, Vettel also retired and was back down to fourth in the standings, 25 points away from Alonso with two races remaining.

To lessen the damage, Vettel won in Brazil, while Alonso finished third behind Webber; while Hamilton was fourth to remain an outside bet in a four-way title fight. And Vettel did his part, taking a clean and controlled victory as Alonso and Webber tried to cover each other off with early pitstops that didn’t really go anywhere. Renault’s Vitaly Petrov then held the two up throughout the race to maintain sixth, but faced heavy scrutiny from the title contenders behind.

Vettel’s race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin issued caution – “you just wait, sunshine” – after the victory, as Petrov continued to hold on from Alonso and Webber. When the Russian crossed the line to maintain his first top-six finish in F1, locking Alonso and Webber into seventh and eighth, Vettel’s emotions were allowed to flow; he, indeed, was the Weltmeister.