The Dodgers open a series against the Reds in Cincinnati on Monday, and can clinch a playoff berth with a win. If the Dodgers lose to the Reds, they can also clinch a playoff berth on Monday with both a Padres loss to the Rockies at Coors Field and a Diamondbacks loss to the Marlins in Arizona.
Here is the math behind it.
National League standings entering Monday
As it stands now, the Padres are 2 1/2 games up on the D-backs for the third and final wild card spot. The Dodgers are nine games up on the Padres with 13 to play, with a magic number of four to win the National League West, since Los Angeles has already clinched the season series against San Diego, winning seven of heir first 10 matchups, with three left to play next week.
But this is about clinching a playoff spot, which for the Dodgers means guaranteeing they are better than the No. 7 seed, currently is the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers do not have the tiebreaker against Arizona, going 6-7 against them.
Why the Dodgers can clinch on Monday comes down to a potential three-team tie for two spots, and that the Padres and D-backs still have three games against each other in the final weekend of the regular season, September 25-27 at Petco Park in San Diego.
If three teams end up tying, the first tiebreaker is their record against the other two teams. Entering Monday, here’s how that stands:
Dodgers 13-10 vs. Padres, D-backs
D-backs 12-11 vs. Dodgers, Padres
Padres 8-12 vs. Dodgers, D-backs
The worst-case scenario for the Dodgers is losing out, but let’s look at what that looks like after Monday.
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If the Dodgers win Monday, they have 91 wins, with the Padres at 68 losses and D-backs at 71 losses
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If the Dodgers lose, they have 90 wins, but two losses means Padres at 69 losses, D-backs 72 losses
In both scenarios, the Dodgers losing out after Monday and Arizona winning out would leave them tied at either 91-71 or 90-72. That would also mean the Padres lose at least three games (to the Diamondbacks), putting them at either 71 or 72 losses.
Let’s give San Diego the benefit of the doubt and assume they otherwise win out, so that’s a three-team tie for two spots. But with these updated head-to-head records among the three teams:
D-backs 15-11 vs. Dodgers, Padres
Dodgers 13-13 vs. Padres, D-backs
Padres 11-12 vs. Dodgers, D-backs
In a three-team tie, the Diamondbacks would win the NL West, leaving a two-team tie for a wild card spot between the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles would win that because they would at worst be 7-6 against San Diego.
In the above situation — either the Dodgers win on Monday, or both the Padres and D-backs lose Monday — if the Padres take even one game against the Diamondbacks in the final weekend, the Dodgers would be assured of finishing above Arizona, as the D-backs would either be at 72 losses with the Dodgers already at 91 wins or Arizona at 73 losses with the Dodgers at 90 wins.
That’s why the Dodgers can clinch on Monday, either with the simplest path (a win in Cincinnati) or a more complicated one (losses by both the Padres in Colorado and the D-backs at home to the Marlins, in later games).
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