We are approximately 24 hours removed from the Houston Astros and GM Dana Brown having a mutual parting of ways (i.e. – he was fired) and the team announcing it would finish the year with a three-headed monster of the team’s current assistant GM’s and special advisor Jeff Bagwell running things under the supervision of team owner Jim Crane.
Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Following the 2022 season, one in which Houston was crowned World Series champions, this same scenario essentially played out. The things that most stand out from that situation are:
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the power struggle between new GM Dana Brown and future Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker
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it seemed Dana didn’t have the keys to the car his first year-plus in the organization
There is no defending the Montero deal. One of the basic tenets of being a GM is never give a journeyman reliever a big contract following a career year that is a massive outlier from career norms. That deal was always going to bust, and the fact that no one around Crane stood up and expressed just how awful an idea that was is mind boggling.
The Abreu contract was understandable, it simply failed. The Cubs had reportedly had an offer on the table to Abreu for 2 years at $20M per. There were upwards of 5 teams bidding on his services. Houston was in desperate need of a 1B, and their top choice (Anthony Rizzo) re-signed with the Yankees. Crane pushed in, and went to 3 years at the same $20M per to make sure he won the bid. No one expected Abreu to fall off as sharply as he did, but such are the risks of signing older players.
The power struggle between Dusty and Dana was real. Dusty had just won a power struggle with former GM James Click, evidenced by his ability to convince Crane to reject a trade Click had with the St. Louis Cardinals to send SP Jose Urquidy to St. Louis for C Willson Contreras. A GM in the final year of his contract having a trade rejected by the owner that made sense for the franchise was the writing on the wall that Click would not be back (sounds familiar?). Winning the World Series couldn’t change that.
Dusty was now waging war with Dana Brown. An old school manager, Baker didn’t want the front office telling him what to do. It didn’t matter to Dusty who the GM was, he was the manager and he believed he should be the only one calling the shots in the dugout. Modern front office/manager relationships didn’t work that way anymore.
However, it should have taught Crane a valuable lesson about making sure his manager reported to his GM. Everyone can’t have a lifeline right to the owner, or discord will follow. Astros fans who are also Texans fans remember how that situation played out when both Texans HC Bill O’Brien and GM Rick Smith answered to team founder Bob McNair directly, instead of O’Brien answering to his GM.
Getting the GM hire right is paramount for this team in it’s current state. That GM also has to be able to sell Jim Crane on their vision for the franchise, whether it’s rebuild, retool, re-focus, the owner must be on board.
Crane is one of the most hands-on owners in the sport. He is incredibly competitive. He wants to win, and he doesn’t accept excuses.
Reports say the Astros are looking at candidates from the Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, and that an in-house candidate may be considered. Crane has gone to the Tampa tree before, with Click. Click was on point with his numbers, but struggled to build a strong relationship with the owner, something paramount for the GM role in Houston.
I’ve even seen some say that Crane is open to bringing back former GM Jeff Luhnow, although I have a very hard time believing Crane would even consider the idea of re-hiring someone who previously sued him for breach of contract. It is unknown how other owners or the league office would ever feel about a Luhnow return in Houston or elsewhere, but he is technically eligible to return as his suspension from MLB ended following the 2020 season.
Choosing a GM from a small market tree is no guarantee of success. The Mets are the most recent example, as their current President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has drawn heavy scorn for the failed team he built this season despite it’s enormous payroll. Stearns is not only a small market success story in Milwaukee (where he was GM and later POBO) but is also from the Jeff Luhnow tree where he was Luhnow’s sole assistant GM in Houston until he accepted the GM role in Milwaukee.
Hiring an unproven GM always comes with risk, regardless of the size or market they may come from. Hiring a GM with experience in one market does not always translate in another. It is a difficult process where personality and ability to mesh with the owner are also a big part of the equation, along with aptitude, experience, prior success, and philosophy.
We have seen in the not too distant past that Crane cannot act as sole GM, not even with 3 assistants advising him. Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Reggie Jackson weren’t a successful triumvirate in advising Crane as GM perviously and swapping Jackson for Enos Cabell likely will not change that today.
Crane has to get this pick right. It can’t be a hire to ‘work the margins’ as Click was or to ‘restock the minors’ as Brown was, but someone who has experience in building both the minors and majors for success simultaneously or ability to sell their vision on the owner that Crane truly believes it and is willing to be on board 100%.
The major league team is very much at a crossroads. Ravaged by injury for 3 straight seasons, it has suffered loss of star power and has not been able to backfill the losses as it had during the prime of the Golden Era. The lack of high end prospects has prevented the team from replenishing it’s stars or trading for them. Various developed minor leaguer position players who weren’t top prospects promoted to the majors have had brief success before flaming out (Chas McCormick) or never really made much impact (Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido). Recent call ups (Zach Cole, Brice Matthews) have struggled badly. The MLB club is in desperate need of a talent influx.
The minor league system is still ranked low but has legitimate high end talent, it is simply at lower levels of the minors. Brown has put a lot of talent in the system in the 17-20 year old range, but that fruit cannot be harvested for several more years. None of that top talent is available to help the team now or next season.
The Astros missed a potential big opportunity to sell at the deadline and inject the franchise with a lot of young talent by selling off players who were pending free agents or a year away from free agency. Some of those players could have helped next season, some could have been used to get players who would help next season. Instead they refused to sell, did practically no buying either, and find themselves in the situation they are due to inaction and a severe lack of foresight.
The next person hired as GM will be the difference between the Astros extending a real window of opportunity or going to the bottom of the division for an unknown period of time. No one wants to see Jose Altuve’s twilight of his career spent on a bottom feeder team. No one wants to see Yordan Alvarez’ prime years wasted for nothing. No one wants to see Hunter Brown being the last high quality starter on the team, only to watch him leave and be a star elsewhere.
Whatever direction Crane goes with his new hire, Crane himself has to have a real plan that he and his new GM share. Whether it’s re-tooling, rebuilding, bringing in the talent to make this current team a contender again, they need an actual plan and it needs to be the right plan.
If it isn’t, the plan will be crashing out, and it will be chosen for them.
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