Hamilton vs Vasseur: who’s right?

For all the seven world championships he has won, Lewis Hamilton, if not quite a model of humble modesty, has retained a certain heart-on-sleeve quality when he reflects on races past. Not for him the stentorian braggadocio you would expect from one who had chalked up that level of achievement in another sport.

So when he said this weekend, after the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, “competing for the top three is off the cards for a while”, you feel this is a realistic assessment, if one perhaps seasoned with a touch of pessimism.

He was speaking in the context of a race where Ferrari had disappointed the Monza faithful by finishing off the podium after an apparently strong showing in practice. Team-mate Charles Leclerc and he had been 1-2 in the first session on Friday but it was a gentle slide after that.

Hamilton had started 10th after that contentious grid penalty carried over from Zandvoort, but threatened George Russell’s fifth place until Ferrari’s strategy of extending the first stint failed to work out as hoped. Aside from his form and fluctuating mood, the main intrigue surrounding Hamilton this year has been his pace deficit to Leclerc – which was narrower than ever in Monza.

So Ferrari boss Frederic Vasseur – speaking separately from Hamilton, in his usual post-race briefing – took a different view when asked about Lewis’s prospects of landing a podium, saying emphatically that it was possible.

“Yes, because he was able to fight with Russell at Zandvoort, and came back from P10 [on the grid] to the gearbox of Russell today,” said Vasseur.

“Russell was on the podium a couple of times. Yes, we can expect [Hamilton] to be on the podium.”

Given that Mercedes has had to reverse out of several development steps, chiefly a new rear-suspension geometry, since Russell’s run of podiums earlier in the season, you could argue that Vasseur’s syllogism does not quite stand up to sustained interrogation.

At Monza, Leclerc had the legs on Russell in qualifying and the race. You might also view the fact that Charles twice passed Oscar Piastri for third place in the opening laps as evidence that Ferrari is still capable of podiums, even if the one driven by Hamilton isn’t there at the moment.

But Ferrari has clearly been carrying some compromise to mitigate against plank wear since the Chinese Grand Prix weekend, where Lewis won the sprint but was then disqualified from the main event. Leclerc has claimed five podiums this season, including a second place in Monaco, but arguably one of Ferrari’s most defining races came in Hungary – where Leclerc abruptly fell off the pace after his second stop. Russell, who was following, concluded Leclerc was managing an issue and the suggestion was that Ferrari had been forced to run higher pressures on the final set of rubber.

For the majority of this season the competitive picture has been one of clear McLaren superiority at most circuits while the ‘front-midfield’ – Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes – fluctuates according to track characteristics and tyre performance. The question raised by Red Bull’s unexpected pace at Monza was whether this was a one-off, or a more long-lasting shift unlocked by the new floor fitted to Max Verstappen’s RB21 this weekend.

This appears to be Hamilton’s contention – that Ferrari is now third fastest at best, so fourth and fifth places are the best it can hope for, all other factors being equal.

“I think today Charles was giving it everything,” he said to Sky Sports F1 after the race.

“And you know we’ve got Max that’s out there now and we don’t have the pace of Red Bull. Today they were rapid and then we don’t have the pace of McLaren, so currently I think we’re kind of fourth, fifth.

“If we do an exceptional job, maybe we’ll have a pop at a podium here and there. I think there’s definitely a chance to have that at some point but in terms of pure pace, we don’t currently have that.”

Hamilton sees Ferrari’s place as closer to the midfield than Vasseur does

Photo by: Clive Rose / Getty Images

Granted, Leclerc gave Piastri something to think about in the early phases of the Monza race but he overheated his tyres in doing so and had to drop back to manage them once Piastri passed him for the second time. While watching the highlights package in the ‘green room’ ahead of the podium, Piastri could clearly be heard telling McLaren team-mate Lando Norris that Leclerc had been quick in a straight line but slow around the corners, which suggests very low downforce settings.

Low tyre degradation then caught out everyone who extended their first stints in the hope of having an advantage in the closing laps. Both Hamilton and Vasseur said that in hindsight it could have been possible to undercut Russell at the stops.

“We were able to come back on Russell at the end of the first stint,” said Vasseur.

“Then we took a bet to extend and try to have a tyre advantage at the end, but the deg was too low and it didn’t work. But I think it was the best way to try to overtake Russell on the track.

“Perhaps if I had to do it again, I would pit Lewis a bit earlier, but I think it was the best option to try something different.”

Hamilton still talks about not being “100% comfortable” with the car and its characteristics, and it’s this which is holding him back. But while the podium may have seemed a distant prospect at Monza, there are other tracks coming where Ferrari has historically been strong and an opportunity may yet arise.

This is the crux of Vasseur’s argument and he remains committed to Ferrari finishing second in the constructors’ championship even if it is only third or fourth fastest on track. In this, of course, he is aided by Red Bull being effectively a one-car team.

“I think we have a couple of tracks where we are supposed to also be in good shape,” he said.

“Starting with the next one. We are historically always in good shape in Baku.

“The goal is also to finish P2 in the championship. McLaren is on another planet – we are fighting with Red Bull and Mercedes.”

Staying positive is becoming a challenge for Hamilton

Photo by: Jayce Illman / Getty Images