The 2025-26 NBA season is here! We’re rolling out our previews — examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises — from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.
2024-25 finish
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Record: 48-34 (7th in the West, lost to the Timberwolves in the second round of the playoffs)
Offseason moves
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Additions: Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Seth Curry, Will Richard, Alex Toohey
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Subtractions: Kevon Looney, Braxton Key, Kevin Knox
(Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
The Big Question: Was what we saw after the Jimmy Butler trade sustainable for a full season?
The home-run swing for Butler completely transformed the Warriors to a degree that few midseason acquisitions ever do. He gave Steve Kerr’s club another avenue of attack, bringing low-turnover, high-efficiency isolation play and a steady diet of free throws to the party to serve as a perfect complement to Golden State’s tried-and-true Stephen Curry-centered motion offense. He diversified and strengthened the team’s defense, pairing with Draymond Green to give the Dubs two high-IQ multipositional possession-wreckers capable of putting out fires all over the half-court.
The impact was immediate, obvious and overwhelming: A .500 team with a negative point differential entering the trade deadline, Golden State posted the NBA’s fourth-best record, third-best net rating and No. 1 defense afterward. In the 43 regular- and postseason games following Butler’s arrival, the Warriors went 28-15 — a 53-win pace. In the 35 games in which Butler, Curry and Green all appeared, they went 27-8 — a 63-win pace.
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They outlasted a young, hungry, physical and damn good Rockets team in Round 1, winning a Game 7 on the road despite Butler playing through a pelvic contusion and Curry dealing with a thumb injury, and took Game 1 of the conference semis on the road in Minnesota. It would prove a pyrrhic victory; as soon as Steph pulled up with a hamstring injury, Golden State’s fate was sealed.
Even in defeat, though, its future path was clearly illuminated. The Curry-Green-Butler trio worked like gangbusters, and with the contracts of all three lined up for two more seasons (provided Green picks up his $27.7 million player option for 2026-27), the Warriors would try to maximize their potential of contending for a title right friggin’ now.
“My headline is, this team heading into the season has got a great shot,” Dunleavy Jr. said on media day.
So: In comes Al Horford, on the cusp of his 40th birthday, but still a supremely additive performer and hand-in-glove two-way fit with championship experience who, as Kerr put it, “fits any lineup, makes any lineup better.”
(Big Al has already passed the first test facing any new arrival in the Bay: understanding that “the whole mindset is trying to make the game easier for [Steph].” Good start!)
In comes Seth Curry, who shot 45.6% from 3-point range last season; who ranked in the 86th percentile in points per possession finished as a spot-up shooter and in the 96th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, according to Synergy; and who seems like a pretty good bet to slide smoothly into a system that his brother’s been running for, oh, 50 years.
Back comes De’Anthony Melton, a two-way chaos agent who was a rotation piece during Golden State’s hot start last season before suffering a sprained left ACL and eventually being dealt to Brooklyn. Back comes Gary Payton II, a perpetually peculiar player who somehow manages to fit perfectly in Golden State, screening and diving and making the extra pass and guarding everyone with tenacity and alacrity.
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This, then, is the operating principle: Get as many smart players as possible — guys who understand how to cut, move, guard and pass, who understand how to play off of and maximize the three superstars — and see how it all shakes out. If, after a frostbite summer of sore feelings, the finally re-signed Jonathan Kuminga is willing to play a circumscribed role that fits into that framework, then that’s great news. And if he’s not … well, Jan. 15 will be here before you know it, and a two-year, $46.8 million deal could bring back pieces that more snugly fit the Warriors’ M.O.
If everyone’s rowing in the same direction, and if the long-in-the-tooth centerpieces to whom Kerr, Dunleavy Jr. and the rest of Golden State’s braintrust have hitched their wagons can stay upright and operational, then we’ll have a chance to find out if what we saw after the trade deadline was just a small-sample-size magic trick, or if it’s sturdy enough to sustain over a longer haul.
If it’s the former, then maybe we’ve already seen Steph’s last best chance at a winner. If it’s the latter, though, then we might be looking at a bona fide title contender.
Best-case scenario
All the stuff I just said goes right! None of Steph, Draymond, Jimmy or Al miss extended periods, resulting in the Warriors finishing in the top 10 on both ends of the floor. GPII and Melton combine for something like a full season of havoc-wreaking, the supplemental youth — Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Gui Santos, young bigs Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post — gets in where it fits in around the aging tentpoles, and Dunleavy finds a Kuminga deal that bolsters the core. The Warriors finish with home-court advantage in Round 1 and, with a healthy Steph, a puncher’s chance against anybody they draw in the West.
If everything falls apart
A roster carefully constructed around four of the NBA’s oldest players crumbles when those guys do what old guys do: get hurt and miss time. Golden State looks brilliant for stretches, but only for stretches, and none of that supplemental youth proves capable of shouldering a heavier load. No Kuminga deal materializes, and the bad taste of this summer lingers over an underwhelming season spent scuffling for a play-in berth and that ends before April’s out … and with Steph staring down his age-38 season, the end of the line looks to be approaching faster than anybody wants it to.
2025-26 schedule
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Season opener: Oct. 21 at Los Angeles Lakers
Start penciling in a couple of weeks of missed time here and there for their critical graybeards, and it’s not hard to see a world where they dip down below the mid-40s. If what we get is the version of the Warriors that ended last season plus Horford, though? Then Golden State should blow this number away.
More season previews
East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards
West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz
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