With 28 NBA teams eliminated from competition, the eyes of many fans have already turned to free agency, the draft, and trades to upgrade their rosters. While the draft is still more than 3 weeks away and free agency a week later, that hasn’t slowed the NBA’s rumor mill, which is in full swing.
However, fans may need to be patient waiting for action.
That’s because Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first domino that must fall in free agency. He has yet to sit down with the front office (and likely ownership) in Milwaukee and come to an agreement on his future — whatever it might be — and all the other dominoes are on hold waiting for his move. It’s something Marc Stein wrote about in his latest Substack missive.
“The expectation persists that Durant will ultimately reach the trade market this offseason, but it might not happen until there is clarity on whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will be staying in Milwaukee or seeking a trade of his own.”
The logic here is simple: The teams that might be interested in trading for the 37-year-old next season Durant would much rather be in the mix for the 30-year-old in his prime Antetokounmpo. Those teams will keep their powder dry until Antetokounmpo makes his call, then they will pivot to Durant (or another direction).
Don’t be so sure Antetokounmpo is going to push his way out of Milwaukee. He probably does, but don’t be so sure it’s a lock.
If the primary goal is to win, he could push for a trade to a place like Houston or San Antonio, where he would instantly make the franchise a contender (and those teams have the players and picks to make an enticing trade). However, that moves Antetokounmpo to the stacked West. If he were hypothetically to join Houston, his Rocket team would have to beat 68-win powerhouse Oklahoma City (which is not yet up against the tax and will run it back), Nikola Jokic and a likely deeper Nuggets team, Luka Doncic and LeBron James (likely with a real center) in Los Angeles, Stephen Curry with Jimmy Butler for a full season in Golden State, a Timberwolves team with Anthony Edwards that has been to two straight Western Conference Finals and is improving, not to mention Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, James Harden and the Clippers, and on down the line.
Antetokounmpo might look at that landscape and decide he’d rather stay in the East, especially one where Boston is without Jayson Tatum for much of the season. However, wherever Antetokounmpo might be traded to in the East — Brooklyn, New York, Toronto, even Cleveland or any other team — the price coming back to Milwaukee would gut his new roster of a good supporting cast. He would essentially be in the situation he is now with the Bucks, an MVP-ballot level player surrounded by not enough to win.
If Milwaukee can sell Antetokounmpo on a two-year rebuilding plan, would he stick around? It’s a question only Antetokounmpo can answer, and it depends on what is ultimately most important to him.
Until he makes that call, the rest of the NBA trade market is on hold.
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