They have the most wins in the National League. They have an almost 95% chance of winning their division, according to Fangraphs’ computer models. And, in the eyes of Vegas bookmakers, are still the overwhelming favorites to repeat as World Series champions.
Yet, after an up-and-down opening half that saw the Dodgers fall short of their all-time (and, admittedly, somewhat unrealistic) expectations, the team kicks off the second half of its season on Friday night facing plenty of problems, and grappling with important unknowns, as it embarks on the second half of the schedule.
“Good first half,” manager Dave Roberts said before the All-Star break. “But yeah, we should want to get better.”
As the second half gets underway, here are four big questions in the Dodgers’ quest to improve down the stretch and try to defend their 2024 title.
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Will the pitching get/stay healthy?
It’s an age-old question when it comes to the Dodgers, cast upon a new-look roster battling familiar injury-related headaches.
In a best-case scenario, the Dodgers could end the season with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani (in some capacity) headlining their rotation.
In the bullpen, they could have Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol bolstering more heavily-used arms like Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Kirby Yates — plus wild card options in Ben Casparius, Emmet Sheehan and Jack Dreyer to serve in more versatile roles on the mound.
But best-case pitching scenarios, of course, have often been unrealized fantasies with the franchise in recent years.
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Thus, down the stretch this season, the Dodgers’ top priority (after winning the division and securing a first-round bye) will be keeping their arms as healthy as possible.
That will be most important with Glasnow (who just returned from a shoulder injury) and Snell (who should be back from his own shoulder problem in the next couple of weeks). To this point, the Dodgers have signaled a reluctance to urgently pursue a starter at the trade deadline. And even if they did, the lack of available front-line options means it’d be difficult to insure against either (or, in a nightmare world) both going down again.
The Dodgers have been interested in adding to the bullpen, and might set their sights on a legitimate closer given Scott’s season-long struggles. But still, much of their depth will depend on Treinen (who is also nearing a return from a forearm injury), Kopech (who went on the 60-day IL after a knee surgery, but is still expected back this season) and Graterol (who is also still expected to return after missing the first half recovering from offseason shoulder surgery).
The Dodgers also have their fingers crossed on Roki Sasaki (hoping he can return in late August from his own shoulder issue) and haven’t yet ruled out Tony Gonsolin (though he has remained shut down since suffering an elbow injury). But for now, their primary hope is to keep Glasnow and Snell upright, and replenish an overworked bullpen with late-season reinforcements.
What’s next in Ohtani’s two-way plans?
After pitching three innings for the first time this season in his final outing before the All-Star break, Ohtani appears to be getting closer to full-length starts in his return to pitching.
But the question remains, how long (if ever) it will take him and the Dodgers to get there.
After five abbreviated appearances over the last month-plus, it’s clear Ohtani’s stuff on the mound hasn’t been diminished by a second career Tommy John surgery. He is routinely hitting 100 mph. He has 10 strikeouts in nine total innings. He has given up just one run overall.
However, Ohtani’s bat has cooled since resuming his two-way role. And the full extent of the physical toll being imposed on the 31-year-old superstar are still not yet entirely clear, prompting the Dodgers to be very deliberate in slowly, methodically increasing his workload.
It’s difficult to imagine, barring any unforeseen setbacks, Ohtani not being part of the pitching plan in October given how electric he has looked thus far. But will it be as a glorified three- or four-inning opener? Or in a traditional starting role in which he is asked to work into the sixth or the seventh?
That could depend on the state of the rest of the Dodgers’ staff, how Ohtani performs at the plate over the season’s second half, and how his body holds up to a challenge he has never before attempted with a team competing for a playoff spot.
Will Freeman, Betts snap slumps?
The Dodgers might have Ohtani and a better supporting cast now. But, as they learned in 2022 and 2023, life can be difficult when Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts aren’t hitting; especially in the heat of a playoff environment.
And for all their other firepower this season, the Dodgers still need the two ex-MVPs to provide a spark.
For as good as Betts has been defensively this year — still ranking top-10 among MLB shortstops in fielding percentage, outs above average and defensive runs saved — he was 122nd out of 155 qualified hitters in OPS during the first half, with a .696 mark that is more than 100 points worse than his previous career low.
Freeman, meanwhile, went from a National League-leading .374 batting average at the end of May to a .203 mark over June and July, 163rd best out of 184 qualified hitters in that time.
That kind of production will put a drag even on a Dodgers offense with so many other star-level players. If the team is going to be anywhere near its potential offensively, it will need both sluggers to quickly pick things up. Otherwise, their margin for error at the plate come October could be worryingly slim.
What’s real (and not) from rest of the lineup?
There are myriad questions for the rest of the Dodgers’ lineup, too, where first-half performances ranged from unexpectedly spectacular to unimaginably difficult.
The Dodgers leaned heavily on Will Smith and his NL-best .323 batting average to provide consistent production. Can he replicate that in the second half of the season? Or will he fall victim to the late-summer slides that have plagued him throughout his career?
For large stretches of the opening half, Andy Pages looked like an All-Star and one of the most trustworthy run-producers in the middle of the order (an important role for a Dodgers team that always generates ample opportunities, but can struggle to capitalize upon them). But he also entered the All-Star break in a two-week slump. If he can revert back to being a near .300 hitter, it could significantly help lengthen a sometimes top-heavy lineup.
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Conversely, Teoscar Hernández has looked out of sync ever since returning from a groin injury in May, batting just .209 since then. As one of the most clutch performers during last year’s World Series run, there are real questions about whether he can regain enough health and consistency to replicate such heroics this fall.
Tommy Edman, meanwhile, has been valuable defensively, and was a surprise early-season slugger with eight home runs in March and April. Since then, though, he has posted below-league-average numbers, and entered the break in a two-for-32 rut.
One X-factor could be Hyeseong Kim, who turned heads in limited early-season playing time (.339 average, .842 OPS and 11-for-11 on steals in 48 games) and figures to get more everyday opportunities in Max Muncy’s absence in the coming weeks.
Muncy, himself, poses another big unknown. Roberts said the early reports on his recovery from a bone bruise in his knee have been encouraging. But, the Dodgers have not looked the same since losing him from the lineup. And though he is expected to return, just how limiting the lingering effects of his injury will be could have important implications on the state of the Dodgers’ offense.
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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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