We’re almost halfway through the fantasy baseball season and starting pitcher values are always critical to our success. So here’s another Shuffle Up for you to audit.
Pitchers are the sirens of fantasy baseball, forever teasing and misleading us. Most pitchers, even the best of them, are constantly tinkering with their approach, their arsenal, their mechanics. And of course, throwing a baseball is a very unnatural act, so you never know who’s the next pitcher to need downtime — or a lost season.
You want to make the fantasy baseball gods laugh? Rank the pitchers.
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And that’s what the Shuffle Up series aims to do. What’s below is a set of salaries that reflect how I would price the starting pitching market if I were entering a fresh draft today, or considering pickups or trades. What’s happened to this point is merely an audition.
The salaries are a combination of stats to this point, observations, gut feel and special sauce. You’ll have many disagreements, of course, because that’s why we have a game. I did a courtesy rank of injured pitchers at the bottom, but I will not discuss or debate that part of the list. Everyone can decide for themselves what a hurt pitcher is worth.
The Big Tickets
Skubal was the unanimous Cy Young winner in the A.L. last year (you’ll probably drink for free with the “Who was second?” question) and yet somehow, he’s better this year, moving up his strikeout rate and dropping his walk rate by about 41%. He’s walked nine freaking guys all season, which is just silly (only five since the second week of April). Lefties are particularly helpless against Skubal, slashing .156/.177/.169 against him with zero home runs. Detroit has to be a little nervous over its ace, as Skubal can be a free agent after the 2026 season and he’s represented by super agent Scott Boras.
Brown certainly belongs in this company, as he’s fifth in fWAR over the past calendar year. He’s improved in the key areas this year — more strikeouts, fewer walks, slight dip in home runs allowed. He’s even added a tick to his fastball. The Tigers have to be kicking themselves over Brown, who pitched at Wayne State in Detroit and lasted until the fifth round of the 2019 draft. Imagine a rotation with Skubal and Brown at the top of it; the Tigers could have had it fairly easily.
We can’t take that Fried 1.89 ERA at face value — batted-ball contact says the true number should be 3.35. But Fried has elite walk and ground-ball rates, and his home-run rate is always outstanding. The recent dip from the Yankees might also help Fried fantasy managers, improving the chances of New York needing to win games all through September.
Gore’s breakout is legit, with the best strikeout rate among starters in the majors and the second-best strikeout minus walk percentage. Washington’s done a horrible job supporting him with both offense and bullpen help, but that sort of stuff is fluky. The only downside to Gore this year is the possibility that the non-contending Nationals will shut him down at some point in September, but we’ll enjoy the continued dominance until then. There’s a Cy Young award in his future.
Legitimate Building Blocks
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$15 Spencer Schwellenbach
Sánchez has a modest 16 wins over his last 45 starts; this year a spike in his walk rate has allowed him a modest 5.7 innings per start. At least there’s been an appreciable bump in strikeouts and he’s posting the lowest ERA of his career. Sanchez could improve some in the platoon disadvantage, and his plus changeup should be a weapon towards that aim.
We know Abbott’s 1.84 ERA isn’t sustainable, but he’s better than you think — the batted-ball data suggests a still-excellent 2.92 ERA. Abbott shows control over his outcomes with his heavy fly-ball rate (third among starters over 50 innings), which isn’t a bad thing — we want pitchers to show a bias in one way or another with batted-ball events.
Kirby and Strider are both difficult to rank after extended absences (a more serious one for Strider, of course), but after watching Kirby strike out 14 in his last turn and Strider whiff 13, we have to take the training wheels off. Strider managers have to pray Atlanta keeps the wild card within reach — the Braves are currently six games below .500 — or else all the major Atlanta pitching could be looking at early vacations in the middle of September.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Castillo’s strikeout rate has fallen for the fifth consecutive year, and that’s met with a walk increase and his worst WHIP in four seasons. Seattle’s home park is hiding some warts, but Castillo has a 4.59 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the road.
The Royals are the kings of finding underrated pitching, with Cameron being another success story. His puddle-jump change will have you thinking of a younger Clayton Kershaw. He’s been fortunate with event sequencing, but his Savant-driven ERA is still a tidy 3.07.
Birdsong needs to show he can go deeper into games — that’s where the wins are — but he’s yet to allow more than three runs in any start, and he’s still getting a nifty strikeout rate even since moving to the rotation, His fly-ball bias will play nicely in San Francisco, and he should be able to increase his chase rate with experience. I’m not over the moon on Birdsong perhaps, but I’m certainly a believer.
Some Plausible Upside
Wacha has the best infield pop-up rate in the majors, and remember, those plays are guaranteed outs — as good as a strikeout. It’s a good thing he gets those because his strikeout rate has been in decline for two years. If the Royals fall out of the playoff race — they’re 18.2 to make the playoffs right now, per Fangraphs — Wacha would be a good depth add for a contender.
Eflin had a blowup in his last start, which happens sometimes when you’re an elite strike thrower like he is. The shame is that he no longer has an elite ground-ball rate to clean up the occasional mess. He’s never had elite fastball velocity but this year it’s tumbled down to 91.7, which bears watching.
Bargain Bin
Courtesy Injury Ranks — Not for Debate
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