With roughly one month until the default Yahoo fantasy baseball trade deadline, managers cannot afford to waste any time in addressing the holes in their rosters. This is also a great time to make a 2-for-1 trade, as it will create roster space that can be used to add a player who could possibly see his value skyrocket via an expected deal at the real MLB trade deadline.
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Buy High
Tarik Skubal, SP, Detroit Tigers
I listed Skubal here as a placeholder for the small group of pitchers who have delivered on lofty preseason expectations. Of the top-24 starters selected in Yahoo drafts, 13 are currently on the injured list. And there are a few others, such as Dylan Cease and Tanner Bibee, who have not met expectations. There are a handful of starters who have been great and can be expected to continue their success, which makes these hurlers incredibly valuable on the trade market. This is especially true in head-to-head leagues, where shallow rosters will make having superstar pitchers essential during playoff matchups in September. In most cases, I would be happy to trade my star hitter for one of Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Hunter Brown or Paul Skenes.
Sell High
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
Managers should have no problem marketing Greene as a burgeoning superstar in trade talks. After all, the 24-year-old is the leader of one of baseball’s best offenses, and, since the beginning of June, has hit .308 with nine homers and 32 RBI in 34 games. Unfortunately, the elite production has come with a .408 BABIP and 23.1% HR/FB rate that are both among the highest in baseball. And during that stretch, the 24-year-old struck out 32.4% of the time. Greene has plenty of red on his Statcast page and deserves credit for being among baseball’s best in barrel rate, but his average exit velocity and sprint speed are roughly average, which means that his BABIP should soon normalize to his career .356 mark.
Buy Low
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays
This pick is purely a hat-tip to Statcast. Guerrero is having a disappointing fantasy season, ranking 8th among first basemen and 77th overall. But his expected stats are through the roof, as he places second among all hitters in xBA (.320) and ranks 9th in xwOBA (.408). Guerrero is also well-supported, as Toronto’s offense ranks 2nd in runs scored since June 1 and has been surging without massive contributions from their star player. Guerrero was outstanding in the second half last year (1.127 OPS) and could be poised to repeat the feat.
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Rostering Trout for a full season is incredibly risky, as he spends a significant amount of time on the IL nearly every year. But rostering the superstar for the second half is less of a risk, and there is reason to believe that he could be among the post-break leaders in several categories. Trout still has a tremendous batting eye (15.2% walk rate) and does damage when he contacts the ball, as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are among the top 15% of all players. He has been solid since returning from the IL on May 30 (.833 OPS) but could be much better than that down the stretch.
Luis Garcia Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals
Garcia is having a mediocre fantasy season. He’s on pace for roughly 15 homers and steals, and ranks 15th in production among second basemen. The unremarkable campaign masks the fact that the 25-year-old has made improvements this year in key areas such as strikeout rate and average exit velocity. In fact, his .310 xBA ranks 5th among all players. He also has one of the biggest gaps between his .494 xSLG and his actual mark of .406. Garcia shouldn’t cost much in trade and could be much more productive in the second half.
Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs
Happ’s counting stats have been underwhelming this year; he’s on pace for roughly 20 homers and a single-digit steals total. He also has been dragging teams down in the batting average category of late, having hit .186 since June 1. The cold stretch makes this a perfect time to pick up the leadoff hitter in one of baseball’s best lineups. Happ has been burned by a .181 BABIP since June 1, and despite the cold stretch he still ranks 28th in baseball with 53 runs scored. Additionally, all of his expected stats are higher than his actual marks.
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