Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don takes the mound to identify which pitchers managers should avoid at their lofty draft prices this season. Click here for even more fades.
Athletics: Luis Severino, SP
The A’s aren’t loaded with players with high ADPs, and the change in venues will be favorable for their hitters. Mason Miller’s new ADP is risky given his injury history, but he also might be the most exciting pitcher in all of baseball right now (and he easily led all relievers in K-BB% last season). Enter Severino, who’s the Athletics’ new ace and highest-drafted SP. He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home last season but a 5.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP when not in the extremely pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
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Severino now will be pitching in a smaller park and in warmer weather with the move to Sacramento (where the A’s will share parks with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliates). There are better late-round fliers for those searching for SP help in deeper leagues.
Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, SP
Eflin has benefitted greatly from pitching at Tropicana Field over the last two years, including posting a 1.94 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP there last season. He recorded a 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP outside of pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay. Tropicana Field has increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, while Oriole Park has decreased Ks by 8% over that span. Baltimore is also moving in its left-field fences in 2025, so Eflin will have a full season in a tougher environment.
Gunnar Henderson also carries some risk given his high ADP (9.3), modest SB projections, second-half drop in production and entering the season with an intercostal injury.
Boston Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, RP
Hendriks has struggled this spring while competing to be Boston’s closer. Aroldis Chapman has had control issues, but he’s striking batters out and was a top-10 reliever after the All-Star break last season. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock are also capable options of securing the Red Sox’s closer’s role. Hendriks’ last productive season was back in 2022, and his previous velocity looks unlikely to return.
Cincinnati Reds: Alexis Díaz, RP
Díaz’s 4.48 SIERA ranked 156th out of 169 qualified relievers last season. He pitches in one of baseball’s most extreme hitter’s parks in Cincinnati, where Díaz recorded a 4.61 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP last year. Díaz’s K% dropped from 31% over 2022-23 down to 22.7% last season, and his abnormally low BABIP (.250) and HR/FB% (8.6) are especially likely to regress while pitching in Great American Smallpark. There are no obvious replacements for the closer’s role, but the Reds signed Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow during the offseason, when Emilio Pagán also lost 30 pounds, so there are alternatives.
Detroit Tigers: Jason Foley, RP
Foley enters the favorite to close in Detroit after racking up 28 saves last season, but he’s unlikely to keep the job. Foley throws hard, but it’s yet to translate into missing bats; his 18.4 K% ranked 151st out of 169 qualified relievers last year. His 4.09 SIERA ranked 138th. Foley appeared during just one of Detroit’s seven postseason games, and the Tigers handed the superior Tommy Kahnle a $7.75 million contract during the offseason. Fade Foley at draft tables.
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Estévez, RP
Estévez has performed much better since leaving Coors Field, and he enters the season the favorite to close in Kansas City after signing with the Royals during the offseason. But he saw his K% drop last season, when his .229 BABIP was one of the lowest among all relievers. Estévez’s hit rate could massively regress now that he’s pitching in one of baseball’s most favorable hitter’s parks. Kauffman Stadium boosts batting average and walks while also decreasing strikeouts more than any other park. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg emerged as an elite RP last season, so the Royals have an alternative just waiting for the opportunity.
Miami Marlins: Calvin Faucher, RP
Faucher’s K rate spiked last season, but he owns a career 4.65 ERA as he enters 2025 the leading candidate to close in Miami. THE BAT projects Faucher to post a 4.35 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Jesús Tinoco recorded a 2.03 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP after joining the Marlins last season, while Anthony Bender has shown flashes of dominance while healthy, so Miami has alternatives.
Marlins relievers have all struggled this spring with no one emerging as the clear answer to close, but Faucher doesn’t look like the long-term solution. Miami is projected to win a lowly 62 games, so save opportunities will be scarce as well.
New York Yankees: Max Fried, SP
Fried is a solid pitcher who’s being drafted like a borderline elite one despite now moving to Yankee Stadium. The overall Park Factors appear neutral when comparing Atlanta and New York, but some differences could affect Fried; Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs an AL-high 19% over the last three seasons. Moreover, Yankee Stadium has increased walks an MLB-high 10%, and Fried will be leaving a park in Atlanta that helped bump strikeouts by 9% (the third-most in MLB).
The 31-year-old Fried signed a massive offseason contract to join New York, and fantasy managers are also paying up while drafting him as a near top 20 starter.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez, SP
Sánchez was a huge win for fantasy managers last year, but his ADP (mid 170s) has now jumped too high given his modest K rate. Sánchez’s 20.3 K% ranked 45th among 57 qualified starters last season, and his extreme groundball rate will continue to hurt his WHIP. Sánchez is a fine pitcher, but he shouldn’t be going ahead of Robbie Ray and Jared Jones in NFBC leagues, and Nick Pivetta shouldn’t be available later than him in Yahoo leagues.
San Diego Padres: Robert Suárez, RP
Suárez’s K-BB% dropped to 13.0% in August last season and then down to 5.9% in September, when he allowed eight earned runs over 12.0 innings. Suárez enters 2025 as San Diego’s closer, but Jeremiah Estrada was an elite reliever last year, and the Padres added Jason Adam during the offseason. Adam’s 2.12 ERA over the last three seasons ranks sixth-best among 185 relievers, and he has some closing experience. Alarmingly, Suárez’s CSW (23.9%) ranked 163rd out of 169 qualified relievers last season, while Adam’s 32.3% ranked 12th. Suárez’s K% (22.9) ranked outside the top 100 RPs last year, and he has legit arms behind him on San Diego’s depth chart, so don’t expect another 30+ saves.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Helsley, RP
Helsley was great in 2024 while posting a 2.04 ERA, but he ran hot closing out games. Helsley’s 49 saves led MLB and set a franchise record; he somehow did so with the Cardinals winning just 83 games, as Helsley posted a save during an unsustainable 59% of St. Louis’ wins. The rebuilding Cardinals are projected to win even fewer games (79) in 2025, and Helsley had never recorded 20 saves or reached 65 innings in the majors before last year. He has a long injury history and averaged 99.6 mph with his fastball last season (fifth-highest among relievers).
Tampa Bay Rays: Pete Fairbanks, RP
Fairbank’s K% plummeted from 37.0% in 2023 down to a career-low 23.8% last season. His SIERA has jumped from 1.09 in 2022 to 2.82 in 2023 to 3.75 last season, when his velocity saw a noticeable dip. Fairbank’s has constantly dealt with different injuries, as last season’s 45.1 innings matched a career high. Fairbanks has barely appeared in games so far this spring, and he remains a trade candidate midseason. The Rays will be moving from a pitcher’s paradise to a park with Yankee Stadium’s exact dimensions but warmer. Moreover, Tampa Bay has multiple alternatives in its bullpen, including Edwin Uceta and Mason Montgomery. Fairbanks is mistakenly being drafted ahead of Kenley Jansen, David Bednar and Jordan Romano in Yahoo leagues.
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