Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Jackson Chourio turn on jets

As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Last week, I highlighted the Marlins as a team to target when searching for stolen bases and they continue to allow them at a breakneck pace.

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Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.

It’s nice to see Jackson Chourio pick it up on the base paths after a slow start to the season there. Same with Francisco Lindor.

Evan Carter has returned to the majors and quickly stolen two bags, which bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward.

Austin Riley had stolen just three bases in his last 300 games played prior to this past week. Those two bags are completely shocking.

Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.

Luis Robert Jr. just went a full week without being caught stealing. They said it couldn’t be done and they were wrong.

Xavier Edwards jumping onto this list is great, he just needs to find a way to be more efficient.

Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.

There are oddly a lot of second basemen on this list. Kristian Campbell was distinguishing himself before this recent cold spell. Jackson Holliday is pushing hard for 10-team viability and a bit more efficiency on the base paths could help get him there.

It’s hard to roster Caleb Durbin when he’s not hitting and not stealing any bases. There’s a chance he could be headed back down to the minors soon.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

I’ve deservedly picked on the Marlins for a few weeks in a row, so they’ll get a break despite still being the easiest team to run on this season by far. Also the Rays, who have maintained their hold as the second-worst team against the run game.

Otherwise, the Braves, Athletics, and Astros are teams to target when seeking stolen bases.

Sean Murphy’s return from the injured list was meant to stabilize Atlanta’s weakness here, but base stealers are 24-for-28 against him in just 23 starts behind the plate so far this season. Coupled with them also being 20-for-23 in just 17 starts by Drake Baldwin, we’re not seeing much resistance by them to the run game.

Their problems are exacerbated by Chris Sale’s unwillingness to hold runners on. He’s tied with Sandy Alcantara for most stolen bases allowed by any pitcher and has four more than the next closest left-handed pitcher.

While he’s caught the fourth-most innings, the Athletics’ Shea Langeliers has allowed the most steals of any catcher with 36. Yet, he’s known for his strong arm and has one of the best pop times in the league according to Baseball Savant.

Rather, many of the A’s pitchers struggle to hold runners on. Jeffrey Springs has allowed the fourth-most steals for any pitcher this season and it allows base stealers to get the biggest jump on him compared to any other starter in baseball. Osvaldo Bido and the injured JT Ginn have also struggled in this department.

Langeliers, Carson Kelly, and Yainer Diaz are the only catchers that have thrown out fewer than 15% of would-be base stealers who have been behind the plate for more than 250 innings.

Diaz has taken more of a lionshare at catcher for the Astros this season with their intention of Yordan Alvarez playing the field less often. While Alvarez has been on the injured list, Diaz has been their designated hitter in three of nine games.

Yet, that may not matter when streaming steals against them because back-up catcher Victor Caratini has only thrown out 6% of would-be base stealers this season.

Perfect Week for Mets

The Mets didn’t run a whole lot out of that gate with just 19 total stolen bases in April. That was 19th-most among all teams. However, they went a perfect 10-for-10 over the last week.

Both their lack of steals and very recent uptick has come from Lindor finding his stride. He stole just two bases in April and already has four in May. We’re only about halfway through this month so far.

Otherwise, Luisangel Acuña’s regular playing time has added a level of dynamism that the Mets have lacked for some time. His 10 stolen bases are just a bit off the full-season leaderboard above and he’s only been caught once.

On the other side of the ball, Luis Torrens deserves his flowers again for what he’s doing at catcher. He threw out two more base stealers this week, which gives him seven on the year while only six have been successful. He is the only catcher who’s caught at least 150 innings this season to have a caught stealing rate better than 50%. He’s a revelation.

It’s worth noting that the tandem of catchers Torrens replaced on the Mets last season – Tomás Nido and Omar Narváez – haven’t caught a base stealer yet this season in 10 tries combined.

Guardians Sneak Attack

The Guardians have been middle of the pack this year in terms of stealing bases and the Milwaukee Brewers, led by William Contreras, have been one of the most difficult teams to run against.

So, naturally, Cleveland stole five bases against them in one game last week without being caught.

José Ramírez stole three himself off the battery of Contreras and Freddy Peralta including third base two separate times. Steven Kwan and Angel Martínez chipped in with one each as well off reliever Bryan Hudson.

This was not a close, tight game either where the Guardians were seeking the tying run. They had a 3-0 lead after the fourth inning and cruised to an easy 5-0 win. They simply saw an opportunity and took it.

It was reported last week that Contreras is playing through a fractured finger on his catching hand. Maybe that had something to do with this game, maybe it didn’t. Regardless, his caught stealing rate dropped from a league-best 59% to 35% after just one game.